IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Hrs 132-138 light to moderate snow over the area. Surface has temp issues. Hr 141 heading towards the benchmark. Not a bad run at all. Most of the steady precip hangs around the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Hrs 132-138 light to moderate snow over the area. Surface has temp issues. Hr 141 heading towards the benchmark. Not a bad run at all. Most of the steady precip hangs around the coast. Surface temps are warm but who cares this far out. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_132_10m_wnd_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 The 0.75" line touches the city and the south shore and is into Central NJ. A bit more just offshore. Not a great run for interior folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Surface temps are warm but who cares this far out. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_132_10m_wnd_precip.gif The primary staying strong over the lakes really kills us. Prevents the coastal from really getting going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 0z Ukie http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1&hh=120 http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&hh=144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 The 00z Canadian is a monster...ends up pretty far west initially but the surface low is forced to redevelop over Ocean City Maryland and then head northeast. A favorable h5 depiction at 156 and looks like a good amount of precipitation. Not sure about surface temperatures yet (waiting for better graphics) but through 144 hours temperatures at 850mb looked sufficient for frozen precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 GEFS were pretty flat at 00z, And now the Euro looks pretty flat -PNA, holding lots of energy out west still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 6z GFS has an odd presentation. Looks like a good hit but then the coastal low w/ a lot of energy goes OTS and the trailing original primary traverses PA and then shows almost a Norlun (Oh God) like feature with a good bit of snow for many. Another GFS run, another GFS solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 0z Euro ensemble mean looks much flatter than previous runs http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS120.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 FWIW the 00z Canadian ensemble mean was a big hit for the area. Not surprising considering the op GGEM was a massive hit. The mean takes the primary into Ohio and then develops a secondary off the VA Capes which then moves towards the benchmark. The final position is a hair southeast of the benchmark. QPF is 0.75"+ for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Just another view of the 00z GGEM op at hour 144. This is as far out as this graphic goes. This map shows 6 hour precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 FWIW the 00z Canadian ensemble mean was a big hit for the area. Not surprising considering the op GGEM was a massive hit. The mean takes the primary into Ohio and then develops a secondary off the VA Capes which then moves towards the benchmark. The final position is a hair southeast of the benchmark. QPF is 0.75"+ for everyone. The mean looks really nice. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/00zggemensemblep12144.gif 0z GGEM ensemble members http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=144&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Very few complete misses. I have no idea how reliable they are but I remember that they kept insisting that the coastal was going to be a miss/scrape with that storm/norlun combo a few weeks ago. They wound up being basically correct with the coastal. The mean looks really nice. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/00zggemensemblep12144.gif 0z GGEM ensemble membershttp://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=144&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Very few complete misses. I have no idea how reliable they are but I remember that they kept insisting that the coastal was going to be a miss/scrape with that storm/norlun combo a few weeks ago. They wound up being basically correct with the coastal. They had the right idea with that coastal storm. It should be interesting to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 new record block for so late in the season...we are in uncharted territory... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Interesting. I was just checking the 500mb verification scores right now over the past 30 days and the Canadian now has 2nd place for verification scores at both 5 and 6 days at 12z and at 5 days at 0z, and third place behind the GFS at 6 days at 0z. Now, compare the 1st place ECMWF for next Monday with the 2nd-3rd place Canadian and we are in two different worlds. One has a little slop and the other has a blizzard. Truth probably is somewhere in between. But I am truly amazed that the Canadian has moved ahead of the GFS with that upgrade last month. It is a sad statement for our country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 HPC THE GFS HAS DEFINITELY LED THE WAY TOWARD THIS CURRENT SOLUTION AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH WAS INSISTENT ON A MUCH FLATTER FLOW WITH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SE COAST UNTIL FAIRLY RECENTLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Interesting. I was just checking the 500mb verification scores right now over the past 30 days and the Canadian now has 2nd place for verification scores at both 5 and 6 days at 12z and at 5 days at 0z, and third place behind the GFS at 6 days at 0z. Now, compare the 1st place ECMWF for next Monday with the 2nd-3rd place Canadian and we are in two different worlds. One has a little slop and the other has a blizzard. Truth probably is somewhere in between. But I am truly amazed that the Canadian has moved ahead of the GFS with that upgrade last month. It is a sad statement for our country. The pattern hast been amp'd, so as as far as I'm concerned, verification scores meant squat in a cyclonic event. The spread opens between models, and you get different evolutions the days leading up to the event. Not to say the Canadian isn't correct, but right now, it's an outlier. The gfs trending towards a flatter, strung out mess solution with the secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 12z GFS hr 90, primary in extreme SW KY. Looks like the secondary may transfer further south this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Gfs 996 over ky. At hr 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 12z GFS hr 90, primary in extreme SW KY. Looks like the secondary may transfer further south this run. Primary is further east and south this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Hour 96 transfer taking place with the primary over northern KY. Secondary popping near Charleston. Precip up to Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Hr 96 snow from central il to northern md Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Out to 99 secondary still has not taken over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 CAD at 102, south of PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Hour 105 snow over spreading the area. Surface temps are an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Hr 105 primary still to strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 yup, main heading western pa/oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Hour 111 light to moderate snow over the area. Central PA and Upstate NY getting it good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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