alwaysready126 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 I just have a hard time believing that the coast is going to see snow. I want to see it just as much as anyone else in here. I hope you are all right and we get 2 feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 A late blooming miller B like what the GFS op shows won't get it done for the coast. In fact, not much will get it done for the coast except an amazing pattern, which is exactly what the ensembles are advertising. You said 4,000 times about yesterday's storm that the coast wont do well. Well the coast got 3"-5" of snow. The pattern that is setup is incredible for the coast and with a big time coastal, the coast will get more snow. If the coastal actually happens, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 I just have a hard time believing that the coast is going to see snow. I want to see it just as much as anyone else in here. I hope you are all right and we get 2 feet of snow. THE COAST GOT 3"-5" OF SNOW LAST NIGHT FROM A WAA EVENT. How is it hard to believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 THE COAST GOT 3"-5" OF SNOW LAST NIGHT FROM A WAA EVENT. How is it hard to believe? I live in Southern Monmouth, NJ and got goodookis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 You said 4,000 times about yesterday's storm that the coast wont do well. Well the coast got 3"-5" of snow. The pattern that is setup is incredible for the coast and with a big time coastal, the coast will get more snow. If the coastal actually happens, of course. I never said such a thing, maybe you took what I had posted about a particular model and ran with it. The Euro and GGEM were showing a good storm even for NYC and I never went against that. But I'm not the only one that was surprised by the over performance last night for the coast. I got close to 6" in my backyard, rates top 3 so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 and I live 10 miles from the beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 I live in Southern Monmouth, NJ and got goodookis! This happens all the time. Posters take what happens in NYC as what everyone got. So if NYC sees snow than the coast did and if it doesn't, nobody did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 I would use the Euro ensembles at this point. The ECMWF has been too far south with storm threats of late. There's also no other model support for the GFS solution, with the primary low over MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 I would use the Euro ensembles at this point. The ECMWF has been too far south with storm threats of late. There's also no other model support for the GFS solution, with the primary low over MI. Even the GEFS mean gets the coastal up this way, albeit it's warm for the coast. The Canadian mean matches the Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 THE COAST GOT 3"-5" OF SNOW LAST NIGHT FROM A WAA EVENT. How is it hard to believe? We lucked out that the snow began heavily right away, and before WAA really overwhemed everything. It came in heavier than most anticipated, but the overall timeframe of a couple of hours of accumulating snow was about right for most. Let's try to keep this on topic and relating to the upcoming potential event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 THE COAST GOT 3"-5" OF SNOW LAST NIGHT FROM A WAA EVENT. How is it hard to believe? Yea, but we're talking about a whole week further into spring. At this point the pattern basically has to be perfect for the coast to see more than 3-4". It would pretty much be as anomalous as mid 50s in Greenland in March, which we actually did see the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Based on how the EC ensemble mean looks. The Euro Control run should be entertaining in about 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Euro Control run has a 978mb low centered about 100 miles off Atlantic City at 150 hrs. At 144 hrs. it consolidates the low to 986mb about 50 miles off the central Delmarva, then takes it to about 100 miles off Atlantic City at 150 hrs, then exits it due east from there. Total precip probably around .75 or so. throughout the area. 850 level is around -6 or -7. Don't have surface temps as they are still appearing for this morning's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 As far as the people worried about the cold air, keep in mind we actually have an even colder and more widespread cold air mass than the March 8 storm. We've seen accumulating snow well into April, I don't see why we can't see it now especially with this patten, the record setting AO should not be taken lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 We lucked out that the snow began heavily right away, and before WAA really overwhemed everything. It came in heavier than most anticipated, but the overall timeframe of a couple of hours of accumulating snow was about right for most. Let's try to keep this on topic and relating to the upcoming potential event. Not if you used the right models. Euro/Rgem combo, when they agree, is deadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Yea, but we're talking about a whole week further into spring. At this point the pattern basically has to be perfect for the coast to see more than 3-4". It would pretty much be as anomalous as mid 50s in Greenland in March, which we actually did see the past few days. And this pattern is perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 18z GFS has a sub 992 mb low in southern Missouri at hour 111. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Transfer occurring just south of OBX at hour 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 996 over central Ohio at 129. Light snow into area. Secondary developing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 132 996 over obx. Light snow in area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Hr 135 mod snow in area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Hr 138 city-south heavy snow. Low down to 993 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Surface warms at 141. Still getting decent preciep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Pulls away hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Much better on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 not a lot of qpf though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Gefs through 102 are further se with primary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 This time of year good timing can mean the difference between and inch or 2 of slush and maybe 4 or 5 inches. Its still 4-5 days out there but at 126 (00z Monday morning or 7pm Sunday night) the GEFS has precip beginning in our area, and continues for about 24 hours, but most of the precip falls from 7pm to 7am. It looks as if there are some timing differences though between the various ensemble members and light to mod precip does remain in the area all day Monday into Tuesday. If this storm does reach us it looks like we might be lucky again with good timing. We'll see though because timing is a very flexible and easily changed when models begin to key on a final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Gefs looks a lot like euro ens. Further se with primary. Secondary takes over just east of obx. 1000-998 goes just south east of benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Not a bad look at all: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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