MJO812 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Another day another GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Hours 153-156 over running coming in followed by the coastal. Primary over the Lakes is really hanging on screwing things up. The surface and 850 freezing lines are north of the area. Hour 159 very heavy rain over us changing over as the coastal tracks from just off ACY to south of Long Island by 162. Temps crashing rapidly towards the coast. Heavy rain to snow this run. Hour 165 goodbye, big snowstorm for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 The 12z gfs is wrong, it plows the primary into the block, not happening. Expect euro to look completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Hours 153-156 over running coming in followed by the coastal. Primary over the Lakes is really hanging on screwing things up. The surface and 850 freezing lines are north of the area. Hour 159 very heavy rain over us changing over as the coastal tracks from just off ACY to south of Long Island by 162. Temps crashing rapidly towards the coast. Heavy rain to snow this run. Hour 165 goodbye, big snowstorm for New England. What a ridiculous winter this has been for them. Wouldn't shock me if that's the final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 The 12z gfs is wrong, it plows the primary into the block, not happening. Expect euro to look completely different. It tries to redevelop a coastal but the primary doesn't die off, likely wrong. The 12z GFS verbatim is a classic miller B setup. If the primary had died off sooner this would have been a massive hit. The primary pumps enough waa to warm things up and then the coastal matures late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Day ten threat is also showing up on the GFS but it doesn't dig like the Euro. It's more of a bowling ball type deal. Massive potential though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 The 12z gfs is wrong, it plows the primary into the block, not happening. Expect euro to look completely different. The GFS phases with a strong vort coming down from Ontario. That's what causes the cut into Lakes. It showed this kind of scenerio for the 3/06-08 storm and was wrong. I'm not buying it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 on and no spring on entire run but thats beyond the 24th thread title . euro up next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 The 12z GEFS mean is a very nice hit for early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 The 12z GEFS mean is a very nice hit for early next week Could you post it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Could you post it? Right now I only have it on my paid site (storm vista) I'm sure NCEP will be updating soon if it hasn't already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Right now I only have it on my paid site (storm vista) I'm sure NCEP will be updating soon if it hasn't already Awesome. Thanks Mike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Awesome. Thanks Mike. You're welcome It's updating now, as soon as it completes I'll post it, unless someone beats me to it When you look at the more detailed maps you can see that most members have the surface above freezing and the 850's below freezing. Those details are irrelevant though at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 The 12z Euro, further south. The primary low dies over KY. The secondary low exits ENE off NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 The 12z Euro, further south. The primary low dies over KY. The secondary low exits ENE off NC coast. It can't seem to figure out how much energy to eject with the UL and how much to hang back in the Rockies from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 The 12z Euro, further south. The primary low dies over KY. The secondary low exits ENE off NC coast. Big difference in position from the GFS. If it had taken a GFS track with the primary into Chicago and then killed it off like what the Euro shows, would have likely come much further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 12z GEFS mean precip. That's what I call juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 12z Euro, day 9 storm OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 With all of the blocking that is in place, an historically low AO, the MJO in phases 8-1, negative NAO and strong 50/50 low I highly doubt that this cuts to the lakes like what the GGEM and GFS are showing. Supression is always a risk for us in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 After an entire season of watching the same tennis match back and forth that the models seem to play time and time again I have come away with 2 noticeable distinctions 1 you have to wait until the SW gets better sampled in a pattern like this before we yell cut or shunt And that's not until FRI 2. One way or another they have ALL eventually found themselves near the BM What that argues for here precip type I don't knw for sure , but they have all come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Euro ensembles are near the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 The 12z Canadian ensembles are a huge hit. Mean takes the primary into SE Ohio. Good over running beginning at hour 150 with the 850 freezing line south of DC. Secondary pops off the VA Capes and heads towards the benchmark. Verbatim it's snow to rain and back to snow once the coastal takes over. Plenty wet as well. Gets good precip all the way back to Lake Ontario from the coastal. Over 1.00" QPF area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Euro ensembles are gorgeous...surface from from OC MD to south of the 40/70 and plenty of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Euro ensembles are gorgeous...surface from from OC MD to south of the 40/70 and plenty of precip. nearly identical to the Canadian ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Euro ensembles are gorgeous...surface from from OC MD to south of the 40/70 and plenty of precip. 12z JMA agrees nearly completely with the low appearing to consolidate somewhere near the Delmarva, then sitting over Cape Cod at 168 hrs. .75-1.00 area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 The problem is going to be temperatures. Even if we do get a storm. The dynamic cooling has to be very impressive, which probably won't be the case... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 The problem is going to be temperatures. Even if we do get a storm. The dynamic cooling has to be very impressive, which probably won't be the case... Right. Did we just get 2-5 inches areawide on an overrunning event in late march? Oh ya I forgot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 The problem is going to be temperatures. Even if we do get a storm. The dynamic cooling has to be very impressive, which probably won't be the case... There will be enough cold air next week. I don't think that will be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 The problem is going to be temperatures. Even if we do get a storm. The dynamic cooling has to be very impressive, which probably won't be the case... A late blooming miller B like what the GFS op shows won't get it done for the coast. In fact, not much will get it done for the coast except an amazing pattern, which is exactly what the ensembles are advertising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Euro ensembles are gorgeous...surface from from OC MD to south of the 40/70 and plenty of precip. Good sign that there seems to be a large amount of support for a storm that tracks north enough to affect us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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