MJO812 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Seeing the 18z GFS,GEFS and now the Navgem close to the coast and further north than the Euro tends me to believe that the Euro will come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 GEFS accumulated precip for the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Seeing the 18z GFS,GEFS and now the Navgem close to the coast and further north than the Euro tends me to believe that the Euro will come north. Yes, and the fact that it's own ensemble mean is much further north, I think that is a safe bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Seeing the 18z GFS,GEFS and now the Navgem close to the coast and further north than the Euro tends me to believe that the Euro will come north. It may come north but we still have a long while of trending and model runs and whatnot to go through before we have a good idea of what this is doing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Very sloppy looking on tonight's gfs, it eventually has a coastal but it's later than before. The gfs loves to plow through blocks as we get into the extended ranges, but this block is too strong to plow through so it eventually makes a transfer. I will strongly favor the Euro over the gfs with this event as it has the accuracy advantage for this time period. Also has a sneaky little event on the 21st, wonder if this can trend more favorably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 yea...the initial redevelopment gets sheered out and off the SE coast because of the strong ULL in the NE, while the primary occludes in the midwest...as it drifts E, it tries to reform off the coast but its kinda messy. the ULL in the NE does move out to a more favorable position by then at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Very sloppy looking on tonight's gfs, it eventually has a coastal but it's later than before. The gfs loves to plow through blocks as we get into the extended ranges, but this block is too strong to plow through so it eventually makes a transfer. I will strongly favor the Euro over the gfs with this event as it has the accuracy advantage for this time period. Also has a sneaky little event on the 21st, wonder if this can trend more favorably. Yea that little event could be pretty significant if it can form closer tot he coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 GGEM has a general evolution similar to the 18z GFS...just a tick south and east with the eventual surface low development offshore. http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/P6_GZ_D5_PN_168_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 0z GEFS similar evolution to the GFS. But the secondary low stronger and wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Euro looks pretty nice at 138, would like to see some northern stream phasing though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Euro looks pretty nice at 138, would like to see some northern stream phasing though Bowling ball...not too dissimilar to the older runs of the GFS or GGEM. It's definitely dampening by the time it gets to the east coast though...underneath the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 992mb just east of Ocean City Maryland at 168 hours...precipitation is up to the area but a very sharp cutoff. I spoke about this earlier and I think we'll be watching the cutoff carefully on the northwest end in 3-5 days time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Much further north from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 The surface map looks very similar to what it was forecasting 6 days out in the February storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Bowling ball...not too dissimilar to the older runs of the GFS or GGEM. It's definitely dampening by the time it gets to the east coast though...underneath the blocking. weird seeing this with so much energy left behind, the euro still likes that second system it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 crazy map, so many pieces of energy everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 EURO Ensembles look a little NW of op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 The 6z GFS has a pretty different solution for our area than the 00z run, just looking at the surface charts. This should be more favorable for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 The 6z GFS has a pretty different solution for our area than the 00z run, just looking at the surface charts. This should be more favorable for our area. Yea completely different look. Tells you the models don't have an idea yet. Looks like it skims us this run - Looks similar to euro ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Sportive off topic but anothe snowstorm on April 2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Euro Ensemble mean is well north of the operational model http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS168.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 The 0z Euro control run at 168 paints the same Blizzard look that yetserdays 12z 192 hr JMA painted . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Record march blocking....check MJO phase 8....................check Closed low.......................check Active STJ........................check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Control run of the Euro gets the center to about Cape May at 990mb at 174hrs with about .75-1.25 throughout our area. 850's of -5, -6 and surface temps in the low to mid 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Euro ens are further north and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Amazing weather... cant believe it feels like january. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Record march blocking....check MJO phase 8....................check Closed low.......................check Active STJ........................check ecmwfNA_200_spd_144.gif Starting to get more exciting as we move forward each model cycle. I think the really encouraging thing is the very good model agreement at this range for a significant low traversing somewhere off the East Coast, despite the varying evolutions aloft. The main thing I am concerned about at this range is an early cutoff and occlusion of the shortwave trough over the Plains. Some guidance has been hinting at the southeast ridge heights connecting with the block shifting south over Canada, while the shortwave of interest is still back to the west. This slows everything down and allows the upper level low to really occlude before shifting east with much less impressive dynamics. Hopefully the shortwave can eject far enough south to tap into the active STJ but not cut off. I've said this a few times but I think we're cruising towards dealing with a sharp cutoff on the NW side of this system as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Starting to get more exciting as we move forward each model cycle. I think the really encouraging thing is the very good model agreement at this range for a significant low traversing somewhere off the East Coast, despite the varying evolutions aloft. The main thing I am concerned about at this range is an early cutoff and occlusion of the shortwave trough over the Plains. Some guidance has been hinting at the southeast ridge heights connecting with the block shifting south over Canada, while the shortwave of interest is still back to the west. This slows everything down and allows the upper level low to really occlude before shifting east with much less impressive dynamics. Hopefully the shortwave can eject far enough south to tap into the active STJ but not cut off. I've said this a few times but I think we're cruising towards dealing with a sharp cutoff on the NW side of this system as well. Yeah, it will be interesting to watch the specific evolution and eventual impacts for our region. The best we can say right now is this is as good a set up that you are going to see for a potential East Coast snowstorm post March 20th. Hard to tell where that northern cutoff will set up so far out or which areas in the East will see the best snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Starting to get more exciting as we move forward each model cycle. I think the really encouraging thing is the very good model agreement at this range for a significant low traversing somewhere off the East Coast, despite the varying evolutions aloft. The main thing I am concerned about at this range is an early cutoff and occlusion of the shortwave trough over the Plains. Some guidance has been hinting at the southeast ridge heights connecting with the block shifting south over Canada, while the shortwave of interest is still back to the west. This slows everything down and allows the upper level low to really occlude before shifting east with much less impressive dynamics. Hopefully the shortwave can eject far enough south to tap into the active STJ but not cut off. I've said this a few times but I think we're cruising towards dealing with a sharp cutoff on the NW side of this system as well. Kind of a concerned about this too. The GFS and Euro ensembles, they've backed off the idea of Canadian block connecting/merging West Coast Ridge, for this threat. That supports the idea of cut-off over Central Plains: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 12z GFS hr 138 primary into Chicago. Hour 144 miller B off of the NC coast. Hour 147 coming up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.