pazzo83 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The MA sub-forum totally trumped this sub-forum with a "HECS Potential" thread for the "next" wave 25-27 time frame. Good to see they are willing to put their toes back in water the despite their being short changed earlier this month. So many good synoptic features... LMAO, Ji started that thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 This has a ton of potential as I see it. I don' think it will be as SE or suppressed as it is shown now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Pretty large signal either way for one or more large and deep systems moving through the deep south in the 7-10 day time range. Should be an exciting few days of modeling at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 12z 192hr JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 12z 192hr JMA Do you have it? My JMA only goes to hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Do you have it? My JMA only goes to hr 144 On accu pro I cant post it . 1.5 inches QPF 850`s minus 5 .. At the very least it`s a nice screen saver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 On accu pro I cant post it . 2 inches QPF 850`s minus 5 .. At the very least it`s a nice screen saver I'll take your word for it, it looked primed at hour 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I'll take your word for it, it looked primed at hour 144. I edited it down to 1.5 , but 987 SE of the BM . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 It's way too far out there to really model watch, so I'd rather just look at the big picture. The AO will tank to historical proportions, the NAO will keep dropping, the MJO will be favorable, the block looks favorable and there's cold air available. Unless some of those factors change, I don't see why we couldn't get a big storm and I think as of today we will get a huge storm in the 7-10 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Euro ensembles do not agree with op. way west and a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Euro ensembles do not agree with op. way west and a big hit Do you have them or did you read it somewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Euro ensembles are well north of the op. The low is right near or just south of the benchmark. Great hit for coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Do you have them or did you read it somewhere? I have them. They are definitely leaning well north and west of the OP. I wouldn't say they are a "big hit" but they are signaling something much closer to the GFS than the OP Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I have them. They are definitely leaning well north and west of the OP. I wouldn't say they are a "big hit" but they are signaling something much closer to the GFS than the OP Euro. So they have the day 10 threat as well? I have them. They are definitely leaning well north and west of the OP. I wouldn't say they are a "big hit" but they are signaling something much closer to the GFS than the OP Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The ens mean track looks similar to the NAVGEM with the Gulf Development to just SE of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The ens track looks similar to the NAVGEM. 12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS168.gif nvg10.prp.174.namer.gif The navgem has def been horrible since the upgrade. Not putting weenie goggles on, just thinking its nice to see the ens west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 On accu pro I cant post it . 1.5 inches QPF 850`s minus 5 .. At the very least it`s a nice screen saver That was yesterday's run. Today's run has a 976mb low over Vermont and New Hampshire at 192 hrs that it apparently bombed out in the previous frame somewhere near the NJ Coast if I had to guess. It shows surface temps in the mid 30's but 850's below 0. Precip is over 1 inch throughout the area and so much for suppression on the JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I have them. They are definitely leaning well north and west of the OP. I wouldn't say they are a "big hit" but they are signaling something much closer to the GFS than the OP Euro. So they have the day 10 threat as well? I have them. They are definitely leaning well north and west of the OP. I wouldn't say they are a "big hit" but they are signaling something much closer to the GFS than the OP Euro. They do not have the day 10 storm. They are very focused on the day 7 storm, just as the GFS is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 They do not have the day 10 storm. They are very focused on the day 7 storm, just as the GFS is. It's a good signal to see that. The euro I think is having trouble focusing/ deciding on one piece of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Most people should thoroughly enjoy this 18z GFS run..looks like a big hit through 156 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 MECS'ed at 162 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Coastal hugger at 156. Weird looking run with 3 lows to start and the primary near ST Louis. It cuts off early this run ... but all we need to worry about (verbatim) is that the 850mb low redevelops off the NJ Coast in an ideal spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I don't see this coming as far west as the gfs shows, and other models disagree with it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Bomb. This winter doesn't want to quit. Hard to believe I am watching for another potential hit in late March while watching the snow rip outside. I'm riding your thoughts all the way John! Keep up the great work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I don't see this coming as far west as the gfs shows, and other models disagree with it as well. I think it's more of a north issue than a west issue, but that's just my opinion. This shortwave is very energetic once it comes into the CONUS from the Pac NW post 84 hours. The issue, I think, is going to be the positioning and strength of the confluent flow to the north...owing to the strength of the blocking and elongation of the upper level low. The GFS is farther north with that feature and less suppressive than the 12z run...but also has a powerhouse upper level low over the Central US. In the end though, I think its that feature near New England that will be the game changer and I think we'll eventually be looking at a sharp cutoff on the northern end of the precipitation shield..whether it be over the Mid Atlantic or nearer to us. These types of high latitude blocking episodes are notorious for producing those. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_18z/f144.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 18z GEFS is close to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The NAVGEM is doing what the JMA is doing and is taking this inland and then into interior New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Meanwhile the 18z GFS ensemble mean is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 So this might go inland even with the block, that's a bummer. Although any additional snow now would be a bonus so even if we don't get anymore snow, it won't be disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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