Snow_Miser Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 It looks great at h5 and ends Occluding a little to early. That's fine right now Agree. This run was a pretty good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 It's still going to be a good run, especially for late March standards. Just not the KU event most people are looking for. According to that run, it's not a KU, but reality could prove much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 That run looks EXTREMELY similar to the March 8th forecasting nightmare... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 nice winter 12z gfs run. no warm-up pending this month, consistent with euro runs. many more runs to go for the potential 25th hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The NAVGEM is in the 0z Euro camp being more suppressed with the first wave. The 0z euro was more amplified with the second wave but was too far south on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The NAVGEM is in the 0z Euro camp with being more suppressed with the first wave. nvg10.prp.108.namer.gif I think every model has that. The main show is back out west. 108hrs seems too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 That run looks EXTREMELY similar to the March 8th forecasting nightmare... Not really, the block looks a lot more favorable and believe it or not, there is more cold air available or at least there's more cold air to tap into . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I think every model has that. The main show is back out west. 108hrs seems too early That's why I said the first wave. The NAVGEM takes the main development just SE of the BM this run. It is a different evolution than the GFS is showing with more of a Gulf miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 GEFS mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 This afternoons Canadian has a bizarre looking system especially at h7. But the general idea remains the same on all of the major global models with a major piece of energy coming out of the Pacific at 84 hours and then moving into the Central US under the block. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/f180.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The JMA has a big storm down south at 144. Not sure where it goes from here, the energy at h5 is still back over the TN valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 GEFS members. Interesting. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 GEFS mean Every member has the storm, differences in position and timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Euro has an early storm well OTS. Hits Nova Scotta really hard at hour 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Euro has an early storm well OTS. Hits Nova Scotta really hard at hour 96. It still gives the area some light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 It still gives the area some light snow. I guess you cold say that, it scrapes Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I guess you cold say that, it scrapes Long Island. All the models scrape our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Energy diving down into West TX and New Mexico hour 114-120. Monster sub 972 low slamming Nova Scotta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Strung out mess down south at hours 120-132. Deep trough building into TX at 138. Plenty of moisture along the gulf. Looks like a large storm organzing in the deep south by hr 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 There is way too much confluence over the Northeast on the Euro through 138-144 hours. The upper level low elongates and the timing is poor this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Hr 150 low pressure off the SC Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 There is way too much confluence over the Northeast on the Euro through 138-144 hours. The upper level low elongates and the timing is poor this run. Positive trends on this run though. More energy down south and the Ull is further northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 It seems like it trended towards the gfs a bit. I like this run better the 00z. It's seems to be focusing on the right energy now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 If this were any other time of the year, looking at a sub 980 low pressure system near the Carolinas would be all over the news. Well, this one seems to be exiting the 'linas and not ramming into them. Still. Very interesting, the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Hr 156 sliding OTS off the Carolina Coast. Way, way OTS by 162. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Positive trends on this run though. More energy down south and the Ull is further northeast. Well, yeah. A few of us have been saying for days that this main piece of energy coming out of the Pac is the one to watch. Small differences are going to have major implications especially when it comes to the upper level low and its eventual positioning to our north. The shortwave is aggressive and digs pretty far south which is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 We either need that elongated ULL piece to phase in, or move out of the way. Btw, so much for short March wavelengths. The entire US looks like a broad trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Day 10 teaser on euro lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Amazed a separate thread was created for 1 run of the GFS showing an east coast snowstorm at long range - when the next run at 6Z shows it east and a miss for the area http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPp12192.gif and the EURO has it several days later at 240 - way out of range and south http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif The MA sub-forum totally trumped this sub-forum with a "HECS Potential" thread for the "next" wave 25-27 time frame. Good to see they are willing to put their toes back in the water despite their being short changed earlier this month. So many good synoptic features... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The day 7 storm on the euro doesn't take all of the energy over the rockies, which is why the day 10 storm blows up, it just phases in everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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