snywx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Based on precip maps alone (which again we all now can be wrong so I dont know why you're always quoting it as fact) it is better than last nights 00z run. We'll have to see B and W maps in a bit but it looks like it upped precip GGEM looks terrible which ever way you slice it. But carry on on how it looks "better" smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 This run actually gets mod-heavy snow into the NYC metro area before it suggests a changeover, which it didn't have last run. Plus the low gets down to 978 vs 982 or so last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 GGEM looks terrible which ever way you slice it. But carry on on how it looks "better" smh for your location yes it does look terrible. It is arguably better than 00z last night, which is what I'm suggesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 GGEM is always warm, if it has a 980/978 east of NJ, with heavy precip in NJ/NYC, take it is a positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 GGEM looks terrible which ever way you slice it. But carry on on how it looks "better" smh It is stronger than last nights run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 upton P-TYPE IS A BIT CHALLENGING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCREASING SUNANGLE...BUT SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY SUPPORT MAINLY A WET SNOW EVENTACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DESPITE SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TOAROUND 40. THERE COULD BE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN MON AFTN...BUTTHIS COULD ALSO BE OFFSET IF WE END UP IN HEAVIER BANDS OF PRECIPWHICH COINCIDE WITH SNOW GROWTH REGION Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The Canadian does get snow into much of NJ and NYC...and the surface low gets decently far north too. The precipitation shield is very limited though and shrinks rapidly as the surface low moves due east. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2013032312/I_nw_g1_EST_2013032312_050.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 GGEM looks terrible which ever way you slice it. But carry on on how it looks "better" smh It's definitely a tick north and west of last nights run. You can throw the NAVGEM into the borderline irrelevant models that are north and west pile as well now at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 John, how's the Ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 John, how's the Ukie? From what I have heard, it ticked north but kept the best stuff over NJ south of NYC. I haven't physically seen it, meteocentre hasn't updated yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 John, how's the Ukie? Nothing really for you guys per meteocentre if you are north of NYC... you want to be down in C NJ and south for the good stuff... 48 995 near HSE 60 -- http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=048&fixhh=1&hh=060 Meteogram shows 5mm for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Nothing really for you guys per meteocentre if you are north of NYC... you want to be down in C NJ and south for the good stuff... 48 995 near HSE 60 -- http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=048&fixhh=1&hh=060 Meteogram shows 5mm for NYC Yeah just saw it. Much improved (for us at least) over the 00z run. Comparing 48 hr to 60 hour from last night, you can see the difference with less of a compressed height field owing to the ULL being farther northeast. The coastal low develops faster and nearer to the coast. We're running out of time for trends but that was a net positive for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 GGEM is ridiculous... slams into the block though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Wpc PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE/FCST CONFIDENCE: THRU 25/1200Z...A 12ZNAM/00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN BLEND (AVG CONFIDENCE)...THEREAFTER...A 00ZECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN BLEND (AVG CONFIDENCE)A STRONG SHRTWV CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARD THE TX/OK PANHANDLES ISFCST TO TRACK NEWRD REACHING THE OZARKS BY SUN MORNING. MODELSAGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEG-TILTED WHILE MOVING THRU THELWR OH VALLEY/MID-ATLC RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING CLOSED UPRLOW. THIS INTENSIFICATION PROCESS IS FCST TO ALLOW A SFC CYCLONETO DEEPEN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPR LOW CENTER BEFORE ITBEGINS TO WEAKEN GIVING WAY TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. MUCHVARIABILITY EXISTS IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WHILEMIGRATING ALONG THE OUTER BANKS BY 25/0000Z. LOOKING AT THE 12ZNAM...IT COMPARES QUITE FAVORABLY TO THE 00Z RUN THRU 48 HRS WHILETHE 06Z NAM WAS DECIDEDLY SLOWER. INTERESTINGLY...AT25/1800Z...THE LAST THREE RUNS OF THE NAM ARE IN THE SAME LOCATIONNEAR THE MOUTH OF THE DE BAY. THEREAFTER...DIFFERENCES IN THE NAMBEFORE MORE PREVALENT WITH THE 12Z NAM BEGIN THE FASTEST INEJECTING THE SYSTEM OUT TO SEA. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 12Z GFSHAS SHIFTED SLOWER AS THE ENERGY DIVES THRU THE OZARKS ON SUNMORNING. THEREAFTER...THIS RUN OF THE GFS IS WEAKER AND A BIT TOTHE S OF THE 06Z/00Z RUNS. THIS SHIFT ACTUALLY MAKES A SRN OUTLIERBY LATE SUN. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE 12Z GFS BECOMES FASTER ANDSTILL WEAKER ALOFT WHILE CROSSING THE MID-ATLC AND CONTINUINGOFFSHORE. THIS FASTER NATURE MAKES IT FASTER THAN ANY OTHERAVAILABLE GUIDANCE. AT THE SFC...THE LATEST GFS TRENDED DEEPER ASTHE LOW CROSSES THE OUTER BANKS ON MON MORNING. COMPARED TO OTHERMODELS...THE 12Z NAM IS THE DEEPEST ALOFT AT 24/1200Z WITH A534-DM HGT CONTOUR ACRS SERN KS WITH THIS STRENGTH DIFFERENCECONTINUING ONWARD. FURTHER...THERE ARE ACTUALLY SOME TIMINGDIFFERENCES NOTED WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN BEING AHEAD OFTHE CLUSTER. BY 25/0000Z...THE 12Z NAM BECOME A BIT SLOWERALTHOUGH IT DOES GAIN SOME SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEANWHICH IS SLOWER THAN ITS PARENT DETERMINISTIC RUN. WHILE THE 12ZNAM HAD BEEN CONSIDERED TOO DEEP...IT BECOMES JOINED BY THE 00ZECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN AND 09Z SREF MEAN WITH THE MORE INTENSE UPRLOW ACRS THE OH VALLEY. WITH REGARD TO THE DEVELOPING COASTALLOW...THE ENS CLUSTERING IS MUCH BETTER THAN IN THE PAST FEW MODELCYCLES. THE CURRENT OUTLIERS ARE THE 12Z GFS/06Z GEFS MEAN/00ZUKMET WHICH ARE DEFINITELY S AND E OF THIS CLUSTER WHICH IS LIKELYDUE TO THEIR SLOWER AND FURTHER S 500-MB TROF PROGRESSION AT THISTIME. AS THE LOW CENTER PUSHES OFFSHORE...THE 12Z NAM APPEARS TOOCLOSE TO THE COASTLINE AS ENS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOMETHING FURTHEROFFSHORE. THE CURRENT PREFERENCE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY TO THECLUSTERING OF THE 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN THRU 25/12000Z. THETRACK OF THE 12Z NAM HUGGING THE COAST LATER ON REMOVES IT FROMCONSIDERATION AND WILL LEAN TOWARD A 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN SOLNTHEREAFTER. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 GGEM is ridiculous... slams into the block though The RGEM was really tucked in, similar to the NAM at 48 hours. Comparing it to the GFS is leans towards the NAM heavily. The GEM Canadian was pretty far northwest as well but seems to be insisting that the precipitation shield won't make it that far north and west -- and it also has boundary layer issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Wpc http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Sounds very much like a lean towards a NAM/Euro Ens blend which would bring basically a less extreme version of the 12z NAM to our area...with moderate precipitation impacts. Not a bad idea but at this point I think this is either a swing and a miss...or a walkoff grand slam. I don't think this will end up being a blend solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39796-march-24-25-potential-bomb-part-duex/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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