tmagan Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Srefs are a monster hit. They keep that upper level low junk away and allows the storm to take off. I hope they have a clue I see no one saw the 00Z JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Srefs are a monster hit. They keep that upper level low junk away and allows the storm to take off. I hope they have a clue http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130322&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LGA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=12&mLAT=40.74400882931712&mLON=-73.89325774536132&mTYP=roadmap 7.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 FWIW the euro ensemble mean is NW of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 NAM 6z is further west than 00z didnt think that was possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Having trouble posting the discussion but upton leaning towards the gfs..Disregarding the NAM..Basically calling for 1"-3" at this time with ratios possibly only 5-1... http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Only another tick 20 or so miles west and we would be golden with the Euro Ensemble Mean. Great look. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 This is an incredibly difficult forecast. We have the king of the models, the Euro showing almost nothing for everyone around here and the UKMET basically agreeing with this scenario. Then we have the JMA that has not budged one bit the entire time from 192 hrs out till now showing a massive hit. Then we have the NAM coming into focus now showing a massive hit and looking amazingly similar to the JMA. We have the Canadian which was showing massive hits up until now trend further south and east BUT it's ensemble mean is further NW showing a big hit. Then we have the GFS showing something in between. OK, so what is it? The European model has not been consistent at all, and until only a few runs ago had basically nothing here. It has been trending wetter on each consecutive run now for the past 3 or 4 runs in a row. It had a complete miss only a few days ago. I remember that it did nearly the same thing a couple of storms ago, then only showed the big hit basically at like 48 hours out, and on one of these last storms it had the placement of the precip right, but it grossly underdid the amounts, in fact it has done that a lot recently. This storm can still be anywhere from a nuisance event to a blizzard. Here we sit, with the storm only 2 days away. Posted below are the 0z Canadian and GFS ensemble means and the 0z JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 This is an incredibly difficult forecast. We have the king of the models, the Euro showing almost nothing for everyone around here and the UKMET basically agreeing with this scenario. Then we have the JMA that has not budged one bit the entire time from 192 hrs out till now showing a massive hit. Then we have the NAM coming into focus now showing a massive hit and looking amazingly similar to the JMA. We have the Canadian which was showing massive hits up until now trend further south and east BUT it's ensemble mean is further NW showing a big hit. Then we have the GFS showing something in between. OK, so what is it? The European model has not been consistent at all, and until only a few runs ago had basically nothing here. It has been trending wetter on each consecutive run now for the past 3 or 4 runs in a row. It had a complete miss only a few days ago. I remember that it did nearly the same thing a couple of storms ago, then only showed the big hit basically at like 48 hours out, and on one of these last storms it had the placement of the precip right, but it grossly underdid the amounts, in fact it has done that a lot recently. This storm can still be anywhere from a nuisance event to a blizzard. Here we sit, with the storm only 2 days away. Posted below are the 0z Canadian and GFS ensemble means and the 0z JMA. The Euro Ensemble Mean I posted above would suggest that the euro would continue to tick westward. 988 mb inside the BM is a pretty impressive look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The GFS at hour 60 is a really nice hit. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 GFS just made a step towards the nam/sref camp...Gets the entire area in the CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 HUGE move NW on the 6z GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Wow, this is going towards the NAM and JMA. The Euro is likely out to lunch again. The Euro has been sucking wind lately with these storms, even though it has higher scores on average, with the storms recently that matter is has been pretty lousy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Wow, this is going towards the NAM and JMA. The Euro is likely out to lunch again. The Euro has been sucking wind lately with these storms, even though it has higher scores on average, with the storms recently that matter is has been pretty lousy. The euro ensemble mean is not dissimilar at all to the 6z GFS in terms of the positioning of the low. I think that we see the euro tick northwest again at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Yet somehow it did not up the precip amounts from the prior run? Strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 It seems that the GFS shifted west more than it shifted north, which is still a good thing, but is why the QPF didn't necessarily go up by much in our area. It went way up in E PA, S NJ and the DC area, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 GFS is 0.75" for the city, and 1.00"+ from Trenton S and E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The GGEM Ensemble Mean shifted a good bit west from it's previous run, and is now a solid hit for the entire PHL to NYC corridor. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/00zggemensemblep12072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The GFS ensemble mean just shifted a touch further South with the precip field. It has the .50 line running along Rt. 78 this time vs. Rt. 80 last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Great overnight runs. Nothing like waking up and seeing a nice hit by the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 NAVGEM just shifted slightly NW from prior run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 VERY GOOD NEWS! The Euro Control run is quite a bit further NW with the low and has significant wrap around as far west as Rt. 287. It is deeper with the low and closer to the coast. It looks nearly identical in placement of the precip to the GFS now. .25 line runs back through southeast NY State, just north of Orange, Rockland, and Westchester Counties. .50 line runs along roughly Rts 80 and 287. .75 line runs from just north of Trenton to Staten Island but then bends back down to Sandy Hook and well south of Long Island. at 66 hrs it has a 986mb low about 50 miles east of Cape May at 72 hrs it has a it has a 984mb low about 125 miles east of Atlantic City with the main wrap around as far west as Rt. 287 and then back to Hunterdon County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The Euro ensemble mean is still west of the OP with the upper low centered further west closer to our region. May be the first time in a while that we have seen the ensemble mean having a further west solution for so many runs this close to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Like upton said, 5:1 ratios seem the mkst likely so we better hope the higher QPF solutions work out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Like upton said, 5:1 ratios seem the mkst likely so we better hope the higher QPF solutions work out! That's if we get no rain, or when it snows, whether or not it accumulates. We might get rain despite the cold air aloft, the lp is too close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 i always prefer improvements aloft first...qpf and sfc low placements are secondary. deff some nice trends last nite but ggem shifting a bit S likely means this will be another sharp gradient around the area. this is quite similiar to some of the big blocking systems in 2011....where you can literally throw a baseball south and reach another +.5 in qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The determining factor in the temperatures and snowfall ratios will be where the CCB sets up. My guess is that the CCB will have temps down to 34 degrees and ratios of 8:1 and the 5:1 ratios in the light snow and 38-40 degree areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I would say any overrunning/WA type snows would be 0-2:1 (but I thnk this type of snow would be the minority in the storm), the CCB should be able to produce 8-10:1 type ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 What is 0:1? I believe that's what we call rain. And 2:1? Not even sleet has ratios that low and those are ice pellets for crying out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 What is 0:1? I believe that's what we call rain. And 2:1? Not even sleet has ratios that low and those are ice pellets for crying out loud. Clipper from last Saturday, snowed most of the day...0 accumulation. Thats 0:1 snow, 2:1 is normal sleetvery wet snow ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Clipper from last Saturday, snowed most of the day...0 accumulation. Thats 0:1 snow, 2:1 is normal sleetvery wet snow ratio. not at all buddy! Be barely had any QPF and temps were around 38! Precip was also light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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