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March 24-25 Winter Storm Threat


Mitchel Volk

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A brush with a few tenths of QPF or so is the same as rain (might even fall as rain since the boundary layer would be warm) for the area unless you're well inland and at higher elevations. We need a NAM scenario to get significant accumulations near the city. Less than that is a fairly boring system that snows lightly for a long time but doesn't stick, or falls as slop or rain and makes you want it to be spring.

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so its about 50-100 miles south with its bullseye in comparison to NAM but that makes all the difference

It's precip field is about 50mi south from 12z so it could just be a wobble. It looks very similar to GFS, maybe a tick wetter. But for daytime snows in late march, its probably not going to cut it. A few inches on the grass, we'll see what the almighty has to say in a few minutes.

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It's precip field is about 50mi south from 12z so it could just be a wobble. It looks very similar to GFS, maybe a tick wetter. But for daytime snows in late march, its probably not going to cut it. A few inches on the grass, we'll see what the almighty has to say in a few minutes.

sick as it is to admit the Euro is the only reason Im up. LOL

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Not what we wanted to see at all. There were some improvements but overall it didn't budge. We're getting into the range where the Euro will only make minor shifts and maybe tick north or south by 50-75 miles at most. 

 

The 500mb low is ideal and went stronger this run, but heights are just not pumping enough between the 500mb low and the ULL. I guess the good news is its still no very far off from showing a great storm, but the euro has not shown that yet which is worrisome

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Off 2 bed then and will know for almost sure by 1p , night all

Not what we wanted to see at all. There were some improvements but overall it didn't budge. We're getting into the range where the Euro will only make minor shifts and maybe tick north or south by 50-75 miles at most. 

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GGEM does bring .75 line to NYC. 1 - 1.25 central Jersey. 1.5 Philly and a 2.33 bullseye interior south Jersey.

GGEM (based on the E-wall maps) brings 0.1" qpf to White Plains, maybe 0.5" to Staten Island and the South Shore. NYC is 0.25" or so. Minor brush at best, since the northern extent of sharp cutoffs is often too far north on models, and this time of year minor brush=rain or slop. The Euro trending away from a hit is also absolutely not what I wanted to see. If it doesn't trend back at 12z, I'm ready to write it off. Minor intracacies here have a major impact on the outcome, but the Euro not being on board and only kind of coming on board last run is concerning.

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I don't see how such a deep trough doesn't explode a deep surface low and amplify north once meeting the warmer southern air and coastal waters of late March. 

 

 

Late March coastal waters suck....but WAA ahead of the system in late March does help.

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Interesting that the GFS and Euro both improved aloft, but nothing translated to the surface.

 

I will say this. Although the height rises in themselves looked a bit better, the heights weren't necessarily higher at any given location. And the 500mb low hung back a bit further SW on the previous run. 

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Interesting that the GFS and Euro both improved aloft, but nothing translated to the surface.

 

I will say this. Although the height rises in themselves looked a bit better, the heights weren't necessarily higher at any given location. And the 500mb low hung back a bit further SW on the previous run. 

 

 

The problem is northeast of us...not the ULL to the west which trended deeper/stronger/north. The blocking to the northeast trended worse with a stronger lobe of the vortex rotating around and squashing it.

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The problem is northeast of us...not the ULL to the west which trended deeper/stronger/north. The blocking to the northeast trended worse with a stronger lobe of the vortex rotating around and squashing it.

 

Yeah the wave spacing is bad. We're running out of time to get that to trend north and east. If it doesn't the entire mid level height field is compressed. 

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GGEM (based on the E-wall maps) brings 0.1" qpf to White Plains, maybe 0.5" to Staten Island and the South Shore. NYC is 0.25" or so. Minor brush at best, since the northern extent of sharp cutoffs is often too far north on models, and this time of year minor brush=rain or slop. The Euro trending away from a hit is also absolutely not what I wanted to see. If it doesn't trend back at 12z, I'm ready to write it off. Minor intracacies here have a major impact on the outcome, but the Euro not being on board and only kind of coming on board last run is concerning.

96 hour total 00 GGEM

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The problem is northeast of us...not the ULL to the west which trended deeper/stronger/north. The blocking to the northeast trended worse with a stronger lobe of the vortex rotating around and squashing it.

 

 

The main storm did trend stronger and further north at least initially, but yeah, because of that lobe that extends from the ULL to the northeast, the storm kinda crapped out. At 78 hours on 12z, the 500mb low was actually more organized and had more closed contours, and that strong burst of PVA was further west. 

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The main storm did trend stronger and further north at least initially, but yeah, because of that lobe that extends from the ULL to the northeast, the storm kinda crapped out. At 78 hours on 12z, the 500mb low was actually more organized and had more closed contours, and that strong burst of PVA was further west. 

same as 18z nam?

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We need to look at VVs for precip intensity. .75-1.00 qpf over 24hrs, doesn't necessarily gives us steady and heavy rate.Otherwise, it sounds like the Nam is alone showing significant snow for NYC metro. Not good, especially since its been inconsistent today.

We need to look at VVs for precip intensity. .75-1.00 qpf over 24hrs, doesn't necessarily gives us steady and heavy rate.Otherwise, it sounds like the Nam is alone showing significant snow for NYC metro. Not good, especially since its been inconsistent today.

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