Absolute Humidity Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 It's pretty south of its previous runs. Looks a lot like GFS now but has a more dramatic 2-6-2010 cut off as the confluence squashes it. Really not a good trend at all if you're an all new upgraded GGEM fan. Oh well. Watch the EC drop a bomb now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 A brush with a few tenths of QPF or so is the same as rain (might even fall as rain since the boundary layer would be warm) for the area unless you're well inland and at higher elevations. We need a NAM scenario to get significant accumulations near the city. Less than that is a fairly boring system that snows lightly for a long time but doesn't stick, or falls as slop or rain and makes you want it to be spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 is the EC coming out in a few minutes or after we sprung fwd its at 230+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 is the EC coming out in a few minutes or after we sprung fwd its at 230+? We did spring forward, starts to roll in now about 150am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Thx man. Hope we r all smilin in 30 minutes We did spring forward, starts to roll in now about 150am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 GGEM does bring .75 line to NYC. 1 - 1.25 central Jersey. 1.5 Philly and a 2.33 bullseye interior south Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 so its about 50-100 miles south with its bullseye in comparison to NAM but that makes all the difference GGEM does bring .75 line to NYC. 1 - 1.25 central Jersey. 1.5 Philly and a 2.33 bullseye interior south Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 so its about 50-100 miles south with its bullseye in comparison to NAM but that makes all the difference It's precip field is about 50mi south from 12z so it could just be a wobble. It looks very similar to GFS, maybe a tick wetter. But for daytime snows in late march, its probably not going to cut it. A few inches on the grass, we'll see what the almighty has to say in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 It's precip field is about 50mi south from 12z so it could just be a wobble. It looks very similar to GFS, maybe a tick wetter. But for daytime snows in late march, its probably not going to cut it. A few inches on the grass, we'll see what the almighty has to say in a few minutes. sick as it is to admit the Euro is the only reason Im up. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 euro is east of 12z, minimal impact only the nam is showing a big hit and the euro is consistent, which is worrisome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 after the ensembles being nw..i thought it was going to show something good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Not what we wanted to see at all. There were some improvements but overall it didn't budge. We're getting into the range where the Euro will only make minor shifts and maybe tick north or south by 50-75 miles at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Not what we wanted to see at all. There were some improvements but overall it didn't budge. We're getting into the range where the Euro will only make minor shifts and maybe tick north or south by 50-75 miles at most. The 500mb low is ideal and went stronger this run, but heights are just not pumping enough between the 500mb low and the ULL. I guess the good news is its still no very far off from showing a great storm, but the euro has not shown that yet which is worrisome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Off 2 bed then and will know for almost sure by 1p , night all Not what we wanted to see at all. There were some improvements but overall it didn't budge. We're getting into the range where the Euro will only make minor shifts and maybe tick north or south by 50-75 miles at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 GGEM does bring .75 line to NYC. 1 - 1.25 central Jersey. 1.5 Philly and a 2.33 bullseye interior south Jersey. GGEM (based on the E-wall maps) brings 0.1" qpf to White Plains, maybe 0.5" to Staten Island and the South Shore. NYC is 0.25" or so. Minor brush at best, since the northern extent of sharp cutoffs is often too far north on models, and this time of year minor brush=rain or slop. The Euro trending away from a hit is also absolutely not what I wanted to see. If it doesn't trend back at 12z, I'm ready to write it off. Minor intracacies here have a major impact on the outcome, but the Euro not being on board and only kind of coming on board last run is concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I don't see how such a deep trough doesn't explode a deep surface low and amplify north once meeting the warmer southern air and coastal waters of late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I don't see how such a deep trough doesn't explode a deep surface low and amplify north once meeting the warmer southern air and coastal waters of late March. Late March coastal waters suck....but WAA ahead of the system in late March does help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Interesting that the GFS and Euro both improved aloft, but nothing translated to the surface. I will say this. Although the height rises in themselves looked a bit better, the heights weren't necessarily higher at any given location. And the 500mb low hung back a bit further SW on the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Interesting that the GFS and Euro both improved aloft, but nothing translated to the surface. I will say this. Although the height rises in themselves looked a bit better, the heights weren't necessarily higher at any given location. And the 500mb low hung back a bit further SW on the previous run. The problem is northeast of us...not the ULL to the west which trended deeper/stronger/north. The blocking to the northeast trended worse with a stronger lobe of the vortex rotating around and squashing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The problem is northeast of us...not the ULL to the west which trended deeper/stronger/north. The blocking to the northeast trended worse with a stronger lobe of the vortex rotating around and squashing it. Yeah the wave spacing is bad. We're running out of time to get that to trend north and east. If it doesn't the entire mid level height field is compressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 GGEM (based on the E-wall maps) brings 0.1" qpf to White Plains, maybe 0.5" to Staten Island and the South Shore. NYC is 0.25" or so. Minor brush at best, since the northern extent of sharp cutoffs is often too far north on models, and this time of year minor brush=rain or slop. The Euro trending away from a hit is also absolutely not what I wanted to see. If it doesn't trend back at 12z, I'm ready to write it off. Minor intracacies here have a major impact on the outcome, but the Euro not being on board and only kind of coming on board last run is concerning. 96 hour total 00 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Late March coastal waters suck....but WAA ahead of the system in late March does help. when do coastal waters bottom out? Late Feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 96 hour total 00 GGEM I think that's the run from last night... This is the new 00z GGEM 96 hour total: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/00zggemp96096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The problem is northeast of us...not the ULL to the west which trended deeper/stronger/north. The blocking to the northeast trended worse with a stronger lobe of the vortex rotating around and squashing it. The main storm did trend stronger and further north at least initially, but yeah, because of that lobe that extends from the ULL to the northeast, the storm kinda crapped out. At 78 hours on 12z, the 500mb low was actually more organized and had more closed contours, and that strong burst of PVA was further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I think that's the run from last night... This is the new 00z GGEM 96 hour total: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/00zggemp96096.gif That's the same run as your link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The main storm did trend stronger and further north at least initially, but yeah, because of that lobe that extends from the ULL to the northeast, the storm kinda crapped out. At 78 hours on 12z, the 500mb low was actually more organized and had more closed contours, and that strong burst of PVA was further west. same as 18z nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 We need to look at VVs for precip intensity. .75-1.00 qpf over 24hrs, doesn't necessarily gives us steady and heavy rate.Otherwise, it sounds like the Nam is alone showing significant snow for NYC metro. Not good, especially since its been inconsistent today. We need to look at VVs for precip intensity. .75-1.00 qpf over 24hrs, doesn't necessarily gives us steady and heavy rate.Otherwise, it sounds like the Nam is alone showing significant snow for NYC metro. Not good, especially since its been inconsistent today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 That's the same run as your link. Looks different to me: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Srefs are a monster hit. They keep that upper level low junk away and allows the storm to take off. I hope they have a clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Would be nice for once if all Models would show a similar(snowy) solution a few days out but you get one or two that look good and of course you hold out the little hope the others will come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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