CooL Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Height field is higher on the GFS already ahead of the main vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Pretty much a jan 12, 2011 repeat, but further south Your Jan 11, 2011 analog seems to match really well with what the storm itself is actually doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 GFS is more amped up through hour 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Wow, major improvements through hour 45. The whole height field is more amplified and further west, meaning that the corresponding secondary should be more tucked in towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 looks not that far off from nam at h5 through 45hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Secondary north of Hatteras at hour 60. Much further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 it has a very slow redevelopment at the surface while at h5, it looks pretty pretty darn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Not quite there looking at the surface but there's plenty of time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I hate to say it, but it's NAM or bust. The GFS would have a difficult time laying down accumulating snow. If you aren't under the CCB, it's a pretty light to moderate snow that accumulates on some grassy surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 0.75 line gets into southern parts of NYC long island and CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I hate to say it, but it's NAM or bust. The GFS would have a difficult time laying down accumulating snow. If you aren't under the CCB, it's a pretty light to moderate snow that accumulates on some grassy surfaces. Nam,SREF,GGEM. I don't get why the GFS is so warm. It looked good and then went to crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Not bad slightly west at the surface from the 18z still a nice improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I hate to say it, but it's NAM or bust. The GFS would have a difficult time laying down accumulating snow. If you aren't under the CCB, it's a pretty light to moderate snow that accumulates on some grassy surfaces. gfs made some pretty nice improvements at h5 up until 54hr...its handling the redevelopment slower and thus shunting the cbb just offshore but not by much. trends are important here, not what its actually printing out during a single run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Everything ticked west on the GFS, it's getting dangerously close now to showing a bomb for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The surface looks very warm on the gfs, easily 40F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The surface looks very warm on the gfs, easily 40F. It is because the GFS has the heaviest precip just offshore. This run is much better than 18z and not that far away from a bomb for the area. GGEM should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Just keep in mind that the same debacle happened at least twice this year where you had the NAP 50-100 miles further west than the GFS. GFS won both times and it made a huge difference in outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The surface looks very warm on the gfs, easily 40F. Starts at 38 and drops to 33 for NYC based on soundings. We need a heavy CCB like the NAM to accumulate in the middle of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Just keep in mind that the same debacle happened at least twice this year where you had the NAP 50-100 miles further west than the GFS. GFS won both times and it made a huge difference in outcome. It's not just the Nam though.The GFS went towards the GGEM and Nam on the 0z run. Just a little more west and this would have been a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 There are many reasons why it's so hard to get accumulating snow past mid March, this storm has to be a huge hit like the Nam for us to have a chance. Just think about this, as historical as the late October snow was, it was more likely to accumulate even with moderate snow rates than it would be right now where the sun is equivalent to say September 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 In the end the equation is simple In march & april elevation, Precp intensity & accordingly CCB location is everything. In the last overperformer it accumilated with temps at 35 (to start) bec of 2in hr/ rates. If we get Nam solution then no worries. we can lose .5 an inch and still finish with a solid foot! There are many reasons why it's so hard to get accumulating snow past mid March, this storm has to be a huge hit like the Nam for us to have a chance.Just think about this, as historical as the late October snow was, it was more likely to accumulate even with moderate snow rates than it would be right now where the sun is equivalent to say September 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Just keep in mind that the same debacle happened at least twice this year where you had the NAP 50-100 miles further west than the GFS. GFS won both times and it made a huge difference in outcome. Yeah GFS turned ugly at the end...but it did have some pretty good trends in the first 42-48 hours of the run. If that ULL takes a track similar, I would have to think someone will see pretty good snow underneath that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 There are many reasons why it's so hard to get accumulating snow past mid March, this storm has to be a huge hit like the Nam for us to have a chance. Just think about this, as historical as the late October snow was, it was more likely to accumulate even with moderate snow rates than it would be right now where the sun is equivalent to say September 20. true with regard to sun angle, but there are many other factors that make accumulating snow late in march much more likely than october, water temps, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The GFS is often too warm with sfc temps, but that said you need an almost perfect scenario to accumulate a lot of snow during the day in late March. The Canadian 12z and NAM likely do it, but light or moderate stuff spread over 18 hours probably won't do it. Again, we need a move by the Euro to a better outcome. A brush is the same thing as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 true with regard to sun angle, but there are many other factors that make accumulating snow late in march much more likely than october, water temps, etc Agreed. Plus the ground is much colder. Still snow cover in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 The strange thing with the GFS is that the 528 isohypsy disappears when the 500mb low moves towards the coast unlike the NAM where it deepens into the 510's. Other wise the storm track is very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 0z GGEM has it parked just east of OC MD and strengthening yet precip has a hard time getting to NYC.. Edit: 985mb parked just east of DE/MD border @ hr65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 0z GGEM has it parked just east of OC MD and strengthening yet precip has a hard time getting to NYC.. It's south and mostly rain for the area. I have a hard time believing that since the GGEM has a 982 low near SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Ya precip maps are a good amount drier. Still probably 15mms total but not as snowy as an outcome obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Ya precip maps are a good amount drier. Still probably 15mms total but not as snowy as an outcome obviously This run occludes faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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