snywx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 0z NAM total precip... smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 It's the Nam but I am not sure if we can toss it just yet. All the models are trending northward. It might be overdone with the precip but this is certainly possible if the primary gets that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Forget the NAM for now. To me, the most encouraging graphics were the HPC 3 days. Those guys have been solid this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I swear I think some weenie keeps hijacking the Nam, I mean it literally paints a bullseye over our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Going too be a fun model tracking weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 8-12 inches of snow for NyC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Well have to watch the GFS to watch for another noticeable shift north. Had a nice look at 18z wouldn't have taken much more for it to have been a big hit here. If it stays put or shifts south than it will just be more reason to not believe the nam (like we don't have enough already??!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The Canadian should be interesting. It has been showing a big storm for several runs. It is now number 2 behind the Euro in the rankings. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Point to remember here guys...the NAM is NOT alone this time. I want to see the euro on board at least a bit more with this, though. But I think our potential for another 3-6"er is high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 8-12 inches of snow for NyC area MIght even be Low unless some of that is wasted as Rain or doesn't stick coming down during Daylight hours.. However with Cold Temps/Ground snow should have no problem sticking if it comes down heavy. Parts of Central NJ over 2 inches QPF so I would say somebody could see over 12 no problem according to NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 At least models seem to be a lot closer in depiction for this storm than for the early March coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 At least models seem to be a lot closer in depiction for this storm than for the early March coastal. Exactly. Quite a different scenario. Doesn't mean it'll be right obviously but at least it's not completely on its own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Pretty much a jan 12, 2011 repeat, but further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 My definition on SECS in March is 1-4 inches ! Mecs- 5-10 and Hecs- 10+. This is only for march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 It's truly amazing that on March 22, we are talking about a snowstorm . Last year, it was in the 60s and 70s. Unbelieveable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 It's truly amazing that on March 22, we are talking about a snowstorm . Last year, it was in the 60s and 70s. Unbelieveable. Setup is and Temps are more like Feb 22.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Nam is great, back to it previous solution. Really great to see the nam becoming more amped as we get closer. - GFS should follow after the 18z run it had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 FYI the 25th is the first night of Passover. A lot of people in the area will be traveling(including myself) could make for a more high impact event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 its taken historically low indices to do so but that is kind of the point that so many great people on here have been saying for weeks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Hopefully models catch on with the overall depiction if not the insane QPFs. Remember the 6 feet of snow the NAM printed out 36 hrs before Feb 8th in NNJ, where most scraped by with a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 its taken historically low indices to do so but that is kind of the point that so many great people on here have been saying for weeks now. The AO is rising which is helping the cause. NAO is negative while the PNA is near neutral. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I just reviewed the SREF's...they are the most impressive for 4+ inches of snow than we've seen all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Typically we get a snow event sometime after the AO hits a peak negative which it did a couple of days ago. A storm on Monday would seem likely to follow. What would be the exact timing though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Nam is great, back to it previous solution. Really great to see the nam becoming more amped as we get closer. - GFS should follow after the 18z run it had Seems verbatim like it's tucked in enough for rain across eastern LI and more of an easterly flow than what's desirable. You can't just go by 850 temps this time of year. But the NAM is almost certainly too tucked in-it does this all the time with coastal storms. A solution further east is considerably more likely. What we want to see is the rest of guidance continue the west trend at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 i keep looping this http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_0z/wrfloop.html earthlight, Dsnow, thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Typically we get a snow event sometime after the AO hits a peak negative which it did a couple of days ago. A storm on Monday would seem likely to follow. What would be the exact timing though? Looks like light precip begins early monday morning then increases in intensity through the day. By 1am it looks like precip should be ending. This is a set-up where we absolutely NEED heavy rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Pretty much a jan 12, 2011 repeat, but further south Good call on that...looks eerily similar to this event, especially in comparison to the 00z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 0z NAM total precip... smh That would be something for this time of year. Ya never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The slow moving nature is possible under a nam solution due to such a record and anamolous AO and blocking. Back in the city for "spring break." lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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