PB GFI Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I think we r getting closer to probably seeing between 50 to .75 as an average in term of QPF. I would like to see that fall in 12 hrs not over 24 , the former yields better rates that will cool the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Huge improvement on the 12z GEFS individual members in terms of snowfall. One major hit from the city NW and 4 or 5 moderate hits including the mean. Still 3 or 4 whiffs for the city. Here is the big one cherry picked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Good to see the JMA back - It was holding steady for days before last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 12z JMA is back to showing a MECS how is the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 how is the surface? I won't know until the paid maps update on storm vista. The map I posted was from a free site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 SREFs are more tucked in and wetter. 0.75+ for City SW and across LI. 0.5+ From basically the putnam/orange CTY line southward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 i think we get what we have seen all year...someone hitting the jackpot in nw nj and ne pa but Boston getting hit again. You can't deny the seasonal trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 SREFs are more tucked in and wetter. 0.75+ for City SW and across LI. 0.5+ From basically the putnam/orange CTY line southward The mean just shifted a hundred miles NW. Also much more consolidated and gets the surface low east of ACY. Major hit. They are also quite cold. My precip type maps show all snow for 90% of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The mean hr 72 vs hr 78 on the 09z run 24 QPF on 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 SREFS way more amplified and moved the coastal 100miles west of 9z. Good signs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 How are the Euro and GGEM ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 This will be cold enough to be 95% snow for everyone (850's -4°C/-6°C). May start off as a light drizzle, but should be all snow, especially when the heavier precip gets here. Only problem will be the surface temps which will probably be in the low 40's/upper 30's when the precip starts during the afternoon Monday. You're not going to get snow to accumulate with temps that warm and light precip. I saw this happen with the Mar 7-8th event and I expect a similar thing to happen this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 18z NAM, updating painfully slow. Quite a bit more amplified out west at hr 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 EURO ensembles anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Phasing in a piece of the vort over the Dakotas this run. This interaction is really helping to amplify the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 EURO ensembles anyone? Looks a little north and stronger than the OP at 72hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 wow the euro ensembles looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 NAM looks great through hr 51. Really amped up and really juiced up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Judging. By the ensembles, Euro 0z should be good tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'm not sure what happened. It looked great to me at h5 but it's escaping OTS at hr 63. The NAM makes no sense to me. It shunts the coastal way east initially and then redevelops it at hr 69 off the VA Capes. Precip starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'm not sure what happened. It looked great to me at h5 but it's escaping OTS at hr 63. The NAM makes no sense to me. It shunts the coastal way east initially and then redevelops it at hr 69 off the VA Capes. Precip starting. probably because of this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 No it's not. Looks very nice at 66. Will get better.. Yes that energy is a tad slow and lagging behing the SFl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The Euro ensembles are def improved as well...better than 00z. The best thing about the Euro was that it was a marked improvement over the 00z run...and that is an important thing to see at this range. It is very close to showing a big solution...the ensembles don't necessarily add confidence to the fact that the big solution is coming..but it's good to see them improved. We are running short on time for the Euro to show another big bump to the NW. Usually after around 66-72 hours out whatever changes it makes will be small ticks and variations and nothing major. We need a good run tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Hr 72 light to moderate precip over the area. The redeveloped coastal is about 100-150 miles east of Ocean City, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 only the nam can make shifts like this is 18 hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Hr 75 getting brushed by the coastal as it heads towards the benchmark. Looks nothing like the SREF's or the GGEM. Hour 78 goodbye as the CCB develops offshore. I'm dismissing this run because it elongates the coastal and then redevelops it a few hundred miles NW. I really thought based on the setup at h5 that we were headed for a monster this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 You can forget about snow this run. The 0.50"+ mark is down near ACY. This area is in the 0.10-0.25"+ area. Weschester County on northeast is ZIPPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Back to good news. Total QPF on the JMA is really nice. 0.75"+ for all. Over an inch from I-80 south. A bit less than 0.75" towards SW CT. Surface freezing line hangs around just NW of the city. Major plaster job for the NW burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 You can forget about snow this run. The 0.50"+ mark is down near ACY. This area is in the 0.10-0.25"+ area. Weschester County on northeast is ZIPPO. Luckily its the NAm 24-36 hours from its best Range if you can call it that with this inconsistent model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Expect 0z nam to drop 30 in on metro. Nam is useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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