March 24-25 Winter Storm Threat

[earthlight]

Euro is much better just glancing at the evolution aloft and track of the surface low

[Quakertown needs snow]

pulling away east by 90 

[forkyfork]

that's an inch at most for us. we start out with sfc temps around 40

[bluewave]

Wow 990 mod preciep back to nw nj.

 

The 0z ensembles were hinting that the 12z Op would come northwest .

[Allsnow]

Down to 988

.5 up to NYC.

.25 up to south coast of sne

[nyblizz44]

Inch of snow? or inch of precp?

that's an inch at most for us. we start out with sfc temps around 40

[jm1220]

Has to bomb out fairly quickly to fight off confluence to the north .right?

The confluence has to back off a little to allow snow to get up to this area. Even if it bombs, the low will be shunted east if the dry air and confluence is too strong.

[JSantanaNYC]

Are we running the chance this keeps trending north and becomes another New England special?

[Allsnow]

Forky is correct we still need it to tuck in more

[SnoSki14]

Less confluence could also allow the storm to bomb out more and throw in heavier precip which is exactly what you want to get more snow.

Nice to see it trend more favorably, hopefully it trends colder and wetter.

[MJO812]

Forky is correct we still need it to tuck in more

 

Yes he's correct but this is a major improvement over the 0z run.

[Snow_Miser]

Wow. Great trend on the Euro. Still has room for improvement though.

[IsentropicLift]

The Euro came far enough NW with the track of the surface low to bring moderate precip into the area. Still have BL issues but it was a great improvement overall.

[jm1220]

Was good to see the improvement on the Euro-but it goes to show how light to moderate precip intensity won't do it, even if overall amounts are good. 35F light snow won't accumulate if it's the afternoon hours. We need the low to bomb and create a CCB that parks overhead. We really need a Canadian-like solution to cash in, which the Euro is moving toward luckily.

[Brian5671]

Inch of snow? or inch of precp?

inch of snow.   .5 of QPF-alot would be wasted on non accumulating snow due to surface warmth

[Dsnowx53]

Here is the GGEM snowfall map:

 

[dbc]

Are we running the chance this keeps trending north and becomes another New England special?

Depends on the confluence and how much it backs off if at all and where it orients.

[nyblizz44]

The last dump area wide was .58 in CPK 4 change over and result in 3 inches. Im fine with Euro doubling precp output from earlier run and there is still time. A simple shift of 75 miles NW will make a large diff in QPF output. By this time tomorrow , with 2 more runs under our belt and sevrl runs of Nam, GFS and Canaddian we will be sitting far prettier certainty wise. Lets just e grateful that  we have our 3rd chance for accumilating snow in March. If it happens we can all call March the Grand finale to a winter that saved itself in the  last 6 weeks

inch of snow.   .5 of QPF-alot would be wasted on non accumulating snow due to surface warmth

[Zelocita Weather]

Pretty amazing agreement from ALL models at this point now for 2-3 days out. Looks like a snowstorm on our hands, just to what degree ;-)

[bluewave]

A few GFS members had the GGEM solution.

 

 

 

[jm1220]

Depends on the confluence and how much it backs off if at all and where it orients.

Highly doubtful this trends so far north we're looking at all rain from warm air advection. For once, we have a significantly better likelihood of an event than Boston.

[ag3]

that's an inch at most for us. we start out with sfc temps around 40

 

 

All it would take it 1 more small correction on the euro and NYC would be into the heavier precip needed for a late March storm.

 

Just look at the improvement from last night's run to get an idea of how much the euro just adjusted:

 

12z euro total precip:

 

NYC: .28"

ISP: .37"

PHL: .79"

DCA: .85"

[dbc]

Highly doubtful this trends so far north we're looking at all rain from warm air advection. For once, we have a significantly better likelihood of an event than Boston.

Agreed. However it will still be warm enough at the surface to give us fits just simply because it could be during the day on 3/26 lol.

[IsentropicLift]

Let's not forget that we still have 72 hours plus on this one to go. We've seen drastic shifts even inside 24 hours this year. Too soon to rule anything out. Was nice to see the GGEM pretty much hold serve and for the GFS and Euro to show improvements.

[bluewave]

The Euro also added another closed contour at 500 mb from the 0z run.

[green tube]

i know the wundergound euro snow maps typically dont match the accuwx pro maps.... and therefor may be useless and crapola... or some combo thereof.

 

nevertheless........ the wunderground maps show eastern maryland getting a lot of snow, while we get pretty much zippo.

[IsentropicLift]

12z JMA is back to showing a MECS

 

http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_96HR.gif

[jm1220]

i know the wundergound euro snow maps typically dont match the accuwx pro maps.... and therefor may be useless and crapola... or some combo thereof.

 

nevertheless........ the wunderground maps show eastern maryland getting a lot of snow, while we get pretty much zippo.

Snow maps are usually worthless. Look at soundings instead and use common sense. If it's 37 degrees at ground level and even if all other layers are cold, it's likely white rain unless it's 1/4mi visibility or less most likely.

[Dsnowx53]

We have slowly been getting there with every model cycle. Not necessarily linear improvements, but over the course of a day's modeling cycles, we always come out with positive improvements. The trends have been there for more room for amplification between the main storm and the ULL, so this might actually be able to gain a bit of latitude before sliding east. That greatly helps for a blossoming CCB.

I'm not confident enough to strongly lean one way or another, but I'm cautiously optimistic until the Euro really hits us.

[Dsnowx53]

We have slowly been getting there with every model cycle. Not necessarily linear improvements, but over the course of a day's modeling cycles, we always come out with positive improvements. The trends have been there for more room for amplification between the main storm and the ULL, so this might actually be able to gain a bit of latitude before sliding east. That greatly helps for a blossoming CCB.

I'm not confident enough to really lean one way or another, but I'm cautiously optimistic until the Euro really hits us.