BxEngine Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Ggem is slower too, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Really great sign to see the GGEM stay that far NW. If it was going to shift southeast this probably would have been the run. Sounds quite well as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 12z GEFS. Not bad.http://i48.tinypic.com/2mmx2eo.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Not sure if I've ever seen a low near Cape May struggle to get precip into the Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Total precip on the GEFShttp://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep72096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The Canadian is still a major hit. Sharp cutoff on the north end but a beautiful solution..especially for PHL to Central NJ and up to about NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 It's the confluince bro from the blocking. On Monday morning you might wake up to see the precip hitting a brick wall just north of the area. Not sure if I've ever seen a low near Cape May struggle to get precip into the Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The Canadian is still a major hit. Sharp cutoff on the north end but a beautiful solution..especially for PHL to Central NJ and up to about NYC. Do you have the total snow accumulation maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Right now the NAM, GFS, GEFS, GGEM, NAVGEM, SREFS all have the low in a fairly consistent (and favorable spot). A tick NW on some of the models would be the difference between a 2-4/3-6" storm and something bigger. Pretty good trends and consistency with some snow, just a matter of how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Right now the NAM, GFS, GEFS, GGEM, NAVGEM, SREFS all have the low in a fairly consistent (and favorable spot). A tick NW on some of the models would be the difference between a 2-4/3-6" storm and something bigger. Pretty good trends and consistency with some snow, just a matter of how much. If the Euro comes NW you'll see a lot more excitement in this forum. For days now it's wanted nothing to do with the more amplified solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 It's the confluince bro from the blocking. On Monday morning you might wake up to see the precip hitting a brick wall just north of the area. I totally understand how it's happening but that would be wicked to see basically a 100 mile wide storm because of the confluence drying it up beyond a certain point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I totally understand how it's happening but that would be wicked to see basically a 100 mile wide storm because of the confluence drying it up beyond a certain point. Well February 6, 2010 was very painful for me. Philly and DC got buried. I think Staten Island and points south in our forum did ok. I think Central Park may have seen advisory level snow? Went to bed with a winter storm warning for 4-8" overnight. Woke up at 6am to see a virga fest over me with the snow about 20-30 miles to my south moving due east. I didn't see a single flake that day. Confluince can be a glorious thing if you're lucky enough to be south of where it sets up as those areas can get really, really dumped on. Sucks if you're just a hair north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Central Park had NADA on that uer painful storm. a few flurries and AC had 20+ inches. worse yet I remember readong on this forum as close as S.I had 10 inches Well February 6, 2010 was very painful for me. Philly and DC got buried. I think Staten Island and points south in our forum did ok. I think Central Park may have seen advisory level snow? Went to bed with a winter storm warning for 4-8" overnight. Woke up at 6am to see a virga fest over me with the snow about 20-30 miles to my south moving due east. I didn't see a single flake that day. Confluince can be a glorious thing if you're lucky enough to be south of where it sets up as those areas can get really, really dumped on. Sucks if you're just a hair north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Central Park had NADA on that uer painful storm. a few flurries and AC had 20+ inches. worse yet I remember readong on this forum as close as S.I had 10 inches okay so I was a hair off. I do remember Staten Island doing ok. The NAM insisted for days that the cut off would be right around I-80. I remember it was one of the bigger wins for the NAM ever. It never budged from 72 hours out. Kept waiting for it to tick north and it never happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 okay so I was a hair off. I do remember Staten Island doing ok. The NAM insisted for days that the cut off would be right around I-80. I remember it was one of the bigger wins for the NAM ever. It never budged from 72 hours out. Kept waiting for it to tick north and it never happened. That storm featured an uber block and a historically low NAO, that entire winter had massive blocking where those further south actually did better than us, which almost never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 That storm featured an uber block and a historically low NAO, that entire winter had massive blocking where those further south actually did better than us, which almost never happens. Well aware, probably the greatest month for snow ever in the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Well aware, probably the greatest month for snow ever in the DC area. through Central NJ. Insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 That storm featured an uber block and a historically low NAO, that entire winter had massive blocking where those further south actually did better than us, which almost never happens. We caught up with the 2/25/10 miller B storm that was a miss SW of Philly. I think Philly still had more than Central Park after they had a big difference in amounts from that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 16" here on that one Mearly 30mi south of Midtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 At 72 hrs the GFS ,CMC ,and UK are in a tie with the edge going to the Euro. The storm is just outside the 72 hr window now getting to our latitude in 84hrs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The GGEM precip type maps are out and confirm that this is probably the best case scenario. Starts everyone off as a mix/rain at 19z Monday. Quite a bit later than the rest of the 12z guidance. By 21z we're all flipped over to heavy snow except Long Island. By 23z we're all heavy snow. Tracks a 984 mb low from Cape May to the benchmark. Precip shuts off around 09z on the 26th. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The GGEM precip type maps are out and confirm that this is probably the best case scenario. Starts everyone off as a mix/rain at 19z Monday. Quite a bit later than the rest of the 12z guidance. By 21z we're all flipped over to heavy snow except Long Island. By 23z we're all heavy snow. Tracks a 984 mb low from Cape May to the benchmark. Precip shuts off around 09z on the 26th. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Take into account that these maps are often skewed warm and it's even better... I wouldn't take any sort of snow map verbatim as they often have trouble resolving the coast very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Euro looks similar through 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Hr 72 1000 mb just north of obx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The Euro looks somewhat more amplified this run, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 It will be farther north this run. Similar to gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 ^yup 996 low off coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Has to bomb out fairly quickly to fight off confluence to the north .right? The Euro looks somewhat more amplified this run, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 996 just east of Delmarva. Mod preciep back to phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Wow 990 mod preciep back to nw nj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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