Allsnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Primary into northern Ohio. Seems slower this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Light snow hr 72. 1000mb over obx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Weak broad coastal at hr 72 12z GFS. Light precip over the area. Starting to come northeast at hr 75. Pretty nice hit at hr 78. The low position might actually be inside the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Less confluence than earlier runs.....better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Hr 78 994 off Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Much closer to the coast on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Hr 81 Ccb about 50 miles from coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Dam close this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Heading for the benchmark at hr 84. Not a bad run at all except the heavier precip that the NAM shows stays offshore. The total QPF is 0.25"+ for mostly everyone. The heavier QPF is just offshore. A 50-75 mile shift NW would have brought the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Wow this is close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 NYC prob close to 0.4 this run. Southern areas touching 0.5. So close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 984 just se of benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Close but we need another 50-75 miles or so. That solution verbatim would likely be light snow for the City south and east that barely accumulates. Where the precip is heavier is likely rain or slop. That's almost exactly what the main storm on 3/8 looked like-the snow clipped NYC and Long Island for a few hours and didn't accumulate. What gave us our snow was enhancement from a follow-up shortwave and a moisture feed from a powerful low-level jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 GFS very close to the euro ensemble last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The 12z GFS is not too different in its outcomes in terms of qpf with respect to the 0z run. Subtle upper air differences are present. It seems that the GFS has been like a pendulum or yo-yo in its last for runs: 3/21 18z suppressed precipitation; 3/22 0z moderate precipitation; 3/22 6z suppressed precipitation; 3/22 12z moderate precipitation. It will be interesting to see whether the ECMWF maintains its continuity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Heaviest precip falls during daylight...we'd want +/- 12 hours to maximize accumulation. Hr 84 GFS snowfall clown map demonstrates the result...or lack thereof for snow...as per this model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Looks like models are picking up on the late recovery, even last nights euro showed it because initially the gfs really shredded the low near the coast. The primary out west really seems to help and waits a bit until the confluence relaxes to reintensify the secondary. A bit less confluence or perhaps a delay in the storm could really help us out big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Heaviest precip falls during daylight...we'd want +/- 12 hours to maximize accumulation. Hr 84 GFS snowfall clown map demonstrates the result...or lack thereof for snow...as per this model run. The slower timing could also be a problem-yesterday it was looking like this would be an overnight event. Light rates just won't do it in late March. We need heavier rates or a nighttime event. Don't look so much at the overall precip output, look instead at how much falls in the 3-hr panels. We have maybe .05-.15 per 3 hours, that's not good enough anywhere near the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Any word on the GGEM yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 GFS very close to the euro ensemble last night. gfs_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_96.gif The confluence looks a little weaker which is very good, but the low cuts off over the OH Valley as well which isn't so good. We need the fast developing coastal low and developing CCB to move overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Any word on the GGEM yet? It doesn't come out until 12:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The nice thing with the current model projections are that the column looks plenty cold for snow for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The nice thing with the current model projections are that the column looks plenty cold for snow for most of the area. But it's going to be accumulation challenged without heavier rates or having the majority of precip fall at a different time than what the 12Z GFS depicts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 12z NAVGEM is west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The confluence looks a little weaker which is very good, but the low cuts off over the OH Valley as well which isn't so good. We need the fast developing coastal low and developing CCB to move overhead. We would only need a 50-100 mile shift north over the next few days to make things interesting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 But it's going to be accumulation challenged without heavier rates or having the majority of precip fall at a different time than what the 12Z GFS depicts. We'll have to watch to see how much faster we can get this coastal to spin up. The NAM showed a phase with a lead vort which allowed the low to develop faster. Other models which slow this down can perhaps buy time for a break in the confluence. Looks like a compact precip shield which is what you would expect when confluence is blocking the forward advance of lift/precip like a brick wall. That's why preferably we see an inside of benchmark track and fast development. Again, .10" in 3 hours is likely not enough for much sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Ggem has 995 over obx at hr 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 12z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Ggem looks like 20-25 mms or so more south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Yes, please.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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