pazzo83 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I don't agree at all, especially when "it's only a matter of time" was backed up with a ton of meteorological reasoning and dismissing it was not. No offense but there is no amount of "reasoning" (meteorological or otherwise) that could validate a statement like "it's only a matter of time" when discussing a SECS along the coastal plain in late March. The ugly attitude that comes out here upon any anti-snow suggestion is really a problem and largely unprecedented wrt the other forums here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 What did the 12z Euro show? Nothing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I don't think the atmosphere cares about days of the week. It is not about days of the week, it is about distance between large storms in terms of time and wavelength, which we as intelligent human beings have the capability of translating into days of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Another thread. Makes me want to hang out in the central PA thread more often. I think what was meant was that some kind of a major low would develop somewhere due to the block, not that it was a matter of time before we got hit. Timing differences/changes are still crucial in how and where a storm can form/track. This. People take statements way too literally. And I'm sorry, after Sandy, the October snow bomb of 2011, and the November 7 snowstorm, I really don't care that much about climo. I mean yes, it's something to consider, but that's about it. The airmass is actually much more sufficient for the medium and long range than it was for the March 8 event. If we don't get snow from this pattern, it won't be because it's late March. It's always tough to get a snowstorm. But the pattern being progged is much more similar to a February pattern than a late March one, considering how far south we are getting blocking, and the historic magnitude of it. That in itself is already not climo. Not climo patterns usually do not produce climo results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 12z JMA has a blizzard for next Monday the 25th. It has a 988mb low about 100 miles off the NJ Coast with 1-1.5 liquid already having fallen and more to come. At 168 hrs it has the low near Cape Hatteras, it then gets captured by energy that dives down from central Canada and bombs it out and pulls it north to about 100 miles off the NJ Coast. The Euro also shows this energy diving down, but has everything delayed until 240 hrs. The JMA has this setup at 192 hrs, which does fall more in line with our pattern of a Monday into Tuesday storm. It has 850 temps around -5 or -6 and surface temps around freezing. The Euro is usually too slow with the systems in the longer range and the GFS is usually too quick, so this fits nearly perfectly, although even this may be a bit too quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 favorable patterns do not care if its halloween, november, or march or early april. i dont understand why the doubters cant see this as a legitimate threat, regardless of this silly word called "climo" that gets thrown around way too much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 What did the 12z Euro show? Nothing? It continued with the day 9-10 storm as opposed to the one the GFS was focusing on, but it was suppressed. Suppression is certainly a possibility in this pattern, but it does appear likely that a major storm system is going to form somewhere in the day 6-10 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 This. People take statements way too literally. And I'm sorry, after Sandy, the October snow bomb of 2011, and the November 7 snowstorm, I really don't care that much about climo. I mean yes, it's something to consider, but that's about it. The airmass is actually much more sufficient for the medium and long range than it was for the March 8 event. If we don't get snow from this pattern, it won't be because it's late March. It's always tough to get a snowstorm. But the pattern being progged is much more similar to a February pattern than a late March one, considering how far south we are getting blocking, and the historic magnitude of it. That in itself is already not climo. Not climo patterns usually do not produce climo results. well said...much better than my previous post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The pattern is absolutely ripe for an east coast bomb. Obviously it's late march and temps could be an issue, we all know this. Lets let the models sort out which wave they want to blow up first though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I don't agree at all, especially when "it's only a matter of time" was backed up with a ton of meteorological reasoning and dismissing it was not. A ton? Favorable blocking and an active Pacific being mentioned don't necessarily equal "a ton" of reasoning. It also does not deserving saying "it's only a matter of time" when many, many other "favorable" patterns have yielded nothing. Granted, climo isn't much to work with either but c'mon... I'm not saying it will or will not snow next week (way too early to commit either way) but most reasonable people are not going to fan the flames of weenie hype based on long range modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 12z Control run of the Euro bombs the low to 976mb about 50 miles NE of Cape Hatteras at 234 hrs, then slides it northeast and out to sea, missing us. It produces one heck of a storm that just misses us to the south and east. The thing to note here is how much further north and west and how much stronger the storm is than what the operational run of the model shows. That is what is interesting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Again, 24 hrs ago we were noting the 240 or 216 hr euro. See the problem? 12z Control run of the Euro bombs the low to 976mb about 50 miles NE of Cape Hatteras at 234 hrs, then slides it northeast and out to sea, missing us. It produces one heck of a storm that just misses us to the south and east. The thing to note here is how much further north and west and how much stronger the storm is than what the operational run of the model shows. That is what is interesting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Again, 24 hrs ago we were noting the 240 or 216 hr euro. See the problem? No I don't. I have always focused on the time frame around next Monday night into Tuesday. I am not hugging models, I am hugging an idea. The idea is that some time around the beginning of next week a storm will likely be near Cape Hatteras. The only question in my mind is how far north this storm comes and the exact timing. The models will always waffle a little on timing and which shortwave will produce the storm, it is the main idea that is important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 A ton? Favorable blocking and an active Pacific being mentioned don't necessarily equal "a ton" of reasoning. It also does not deserving saying "it's only a matter of time" when many, many other "favorable" patterns have yielded nothing. No one here is guaranteeing snow. The good posters are talking about the pattern we have. What we do know is the block is much more favorable than early march, the pacific is improved, the MJO is looping into phase 8, the AO is almost off the charts. This is the type of pattern where it gets hard not to get some sort of snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 AO http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif Rising NAO http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Staying negative PNA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif Rising but staying near neutral to slightly negative. We need the PNA to become positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Perhaps Pazzo can post a stat about snow after march 15th lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 GFS looks insane. What a fantastic setup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 GFS is looking much better with the big storm. ULL moves out quicker and also a lot of energy phasing into the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The GFS looks like it may "go nuts" again. This is way more amplifed than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Wow. The set up looks great. Enormous potential at hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The low stalls out near Hatteras. A good dumping for D.C and Baltimore. Great setup and huge potential.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Virginia gets GFS Bombed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Yes, this is pretty much between what the 12z JMA and the 12z Euro Control runs showed. They all bomb the low out near Hatteras, just the JMA brings it further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 A ton? Favorable blocking and an active Pacific being mentioned don't necessarily equal "a ton" of reasoning. It also does not deserving saying "it's only a matter of time" when many, many other "favorable" patterns have yielded nothing. Granted, climo isn't much to work with either but c'mon... I'm not saying it will or will not snow next week (way too early to commit either way) but most reasonable people are not going to fan the flames of weenie hype based on long range modeling. John has made a ton of good, sound meteorological posts over the past several days illustrating this time period. Out of all the posts in this thread, you chose to call his out? And the phrase "it's only a matter of time" is more so an expression; it doesn't necessarily mean that we're going to get bombed with snow. And there is a difference between simply a favorable pattern, and one that has blocking of 5 standard deviations above normal. This isn't weenie hype, and it's not just based on an individual long range model showing a threat. Just dismissing something with an obnoxious tone with no meteorological reasoning has no tolerance. Just as saying "I have a good feeling about this and Upton is stupid and conservative" with no meteorological reasoning also has no tolerance. I've deleted posts of both tones today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Don't mean to stir the pot, but notice any similarities?The late March version... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 By the way, before any panties are bundled up, I'm not calling for any Dec '10 redux. The pattern at H5 going forward is historic for late March and that's the cold hard truth. Whether or not it produces a major event at the surface is yet to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Gefs have a strong signal for a coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 GFS back north as predicted - lets see if it holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Gee that sure looks familiar. Another March 7-8 style bowling ball redeveloper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 If this run would have had a full phase, this would have been a heck of a storm for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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