earthlight Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 GEFS is pretty nice, must be some really good hits in there I'm sure there are...but I wouldn't put much stock into them until we get closer. They are notoriously bad with the north end of sharp cutoffs and gradients. I know several good forecasters who were really burned in Feb 2010 when the GEFS were consistently north of all of the global models with the cutoff -- they can be way too expansive with precipitation shields in that regard. Just a word of caution as we move forward...it definitely is still encouraging to see them more amped up. We're starting to lose the total whiff solutions at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Energy looks more consolidated on the euro, with slightly higher heights out ahead of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Energy looks more consolidated on the euro, with slightly higher heights out ahead of it So far it looks slightly farther southeast with the vort max and more consolidated...but the confluence over New England is a hair farther south which is the main player at work in compressing the height field. We will see if it backs off in the next few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The Euro has the upper level low closed off already at 72 hours...looks nothing like the GFS or the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 wow, height field completely craps out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 So far it looks slightly farther southeast with the vort max and more consolidated...but the confluence over New England is a hair farther south which is the main player at work in compressing the height field. We will see if it backs off in the next few frames. between 66-78, the height field out ahead of it just gets squashed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 There is a lot more vorticity ahead of the main vort than the 12z run, which is acting to suppress the height field. This is the same area of vorticity that John circled in one of his previous posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 This run still looks nothing like the more amped up models...it closes off the vort max and upper level low very far west. The height field deamplifies ahead of it and the entire thing elongates. By the time it hits the TN valley is it not amplifying like some of the other guidance..it's actually elongating and being compressed underneath the block and upper level low. Our chances of getting a big storm are very low if the Euro's depiction is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The main ULL is a lot more out of the way on this run than it was on 12z, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 It's hard to argue against the Euro in this range, amazing that even in a favorable pattern with historic blocking we still miss out. I guess the blocking was too strong yet again while with the event before the blocking came in too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Tries to make a comeback at 96 but the transfer process is painfully slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 It's hard to argue against the Euro in this range, amazing that even in a favorable pattern with historic blocking we still miss out. I guess the blocking was too strong yet again while with the event before the blocking came in too late. You're talking like it already happened. For a 96hr prog the euro aint too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 It's hard to argue against the Euro in this range, amazing that even in a favorable pattern with historic blocking we still miss out. I guess the blocking was too strong yet again while with the event before the blocking came in too late. I wouldn't Write it off yet.. Especially When GGEM has been Locked in to big storm for a couple days now and other Models are also hinting at that. I would Hedge my bets until at least Sat night before throwing in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I know the Euro is arguably the best model, but I feel like it has been off with almost every storm since the one in the beginning of Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The overall presentation actually improved a bit from 12z, but it still wasn't enough. The confluence was initially further south, and there was a lot more of that vorticity that ran ahead of the main vort (which seems suspect), and that acted to compress the height field, making the storm more suppressed initially. But then the main ULL piece moved out of the way a lot quicker, so the storm tried to make a comeback and was able to generate more height rises. The 500mb low actually ended up looking healthier at 96 hours on 00z than 108 on 12z...closed off at 500mb to our southeast instead of an open wave. Barely any precip reaches us verbatim, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I know the Euro is arguably the best model, but I feel like it has been off with almost every storm since the one in the beginning of Feb It's still the best model, I'd rather it show a blizzard while other models show a miss than the other way around. I can understand its not perfect especially with smaller scale systems but its usually on point with much larger storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 It's still the best model, I'd rather it show a blizzard while other models show a miss than the other way around. I can understand its not perfect especially with smaller scale systems but its usually on point with much larger storms. Euro being suppressed tonight is a problem....and a legit one. There's a reason its the best model...its because it handles complex blocking scenarios like this one very well (relatively speaking). Other models dont. That doesn't mean this run is correct though. We still have time to bring this north, but its running quite short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Euro being suppressed tonight is a problem....and a legit one. There's a reason its the best model...its because it handles complex blocking scenarios like this one very well (relatively speaking). Other models dont. That doesn't mean this run is correct though. We still have time to bring this north, but its running quite short. The fact that it didn't really improve with any of the major players on the field tonight is a bit disconcerting. I was hoping to see it tick northward with the confluent flow and vorticity over New England around hour 60 like the GFS, NAM and Canadian have been doing for a few cycles. The main vort closing off and becoming a huge cutoff low over the TN Valley makes things a lot worse also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Euro being suppressed tonight is a problem....and a legit one. There's a reason its the best model...its because it handles complex blocking scenarios like this one very well (relatively speaking). Other models dont. That doesn't mean this run is correct though. We still have time to bring this north, but its running quite short. I agree I would rather have it on my side, but it really hasn't been constant with this storm over the last 5 day and has been the SE outlier(but has come much further north over the last 2-3 days). Also it was way suppressed for days with the the inverted trough storm even though the coastal missed us by only 75 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 hate to sound like I'm rationalizing,but 12z euro runs are always way better at picking up/starting "trends" i think that's what in general makes the euro good, but it's also why i never get to excited or disappointed if it's similar to it's 12z run especially when it disagrees with the other models...i remember plenty of times where euro at 0z has been the last beacon of hope only for it to back down to other models at 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The fact that it didn't really improve with any of the major players on the field tonight is a bit disconcerting. I was hoping to see it tick northward with the confluent flow and vorticity over New England around hour 60 like the GFS, NAM and Canadian have been doing for a few cycles. The main vort closing off and becoming a huge cutoff low over the TN Valley makes things a lot worse also. But look at the positioning/influence of the main ULL at later frames. Compare 84 hours at 00z with 96 hours at 12z. The ULL isn't pressing nearly as much on the height field. This is why after initially looking worse than 12z, the surface low actually ticks ever so slightly north of 12z with a much better presentation of the main storm itself at 96 hours at 00z vs 108 hours on 12z (at 500mb). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 But look at the positioning/influence of the main ULL at later frames. Compare 84 hours at 00z with 96 hours at 12z. The ULL isn't pressing nearly as much on the height field. This is why after initially looking worse than 12z, the surface low actually ticks ever so slightly north of 12z with a much better presentation of the main storm itself at 96 hours at 00z vs 108 hours on 12z (at 500mb). Yes this is why the Euro made a late comeback in the 84-96 timeframe....but its still not very comforting that it did not make another move north out west....it made a huge move out west at 12z...and actually backed off at 00z...it made a late charge on 00z because it weakened the confluence over Quebec and NNE. But that is only a mild consolation right now. There is still time for this trend better, but the 12z run has more pressure on it than Mariano Rivera did vs Luis Gonzalez in 2001. Lets hope that the outcome was more like Mariano Rivera's playoff record than my example on the 12z run. But I'm pretty discouraged by the trends in the midwest....but I will say that the blocking trends to the northeast were at least decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 8 good hit on the GEFS only 2 whiffs - up from only 4 hits at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Lol new srefs are in the nam/cmc camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Nam rocks us again. A little slower/weaker though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 06 gfs is pretty ugly - SE and weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 NAM/SREFS/GGEM are all a big bit, and the rest are further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Euro ensemble mean isn't bad. A little more west and we will be golden. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Batten down the hatches....It's coming folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 It looks like that there are probably a few decent euro ensemble members in there for the extension of the lower pressures further west on the mean than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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