PB GFI Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 It makes plenty of sense as modeled. The models are showing a very strong confluent flow over much of the Northeast just before the shortwave begins to shift towards the TN Valley which is pretty much game time for us as far as advecting in the moisture and getting the best lift into the area. The jet dynamics wont support the northwest expansion of the precipitation shield because the upper level height field is not just collapsing but being forced eastward as well. You can see the sharp pressure gradient to the northwest of the surface low..and look aloft at how the mid level height field is shunting the vort max to the south and east instead of allowing it to come up the coast. This is a perfect situation for a sharp cutoff on the north-northwest side of the precipitation shield. The good thing for our area is that we are still on the fringes on most of the medium range model guidance, and the trend has been (albeit a slow one) to orient the upper level low to our north in a more favorable position. Once this occurs there is a window for the secondary surface low to track farther northwest tucked in a bit more towards the coast. We aren't very far away from seeing robust solutions on the GFS and NAM but as it stands now this is a Central NJ gradient as the surface low doesn't have room to get past Ocean City Maryland when it's within striking distance of the coast. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=94734]namsouth.png[/url] I'm not buying the confluence. Thnk the model is wrong Thnk the error is that in the end it's further north. FYI. Great piece John , I just think the model has been weak in regards to ULL placements the last 2 times around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Fwiw, Nam is a really nice hit. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_081_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 oh boy...if it only wasnt the nam showing a weenie solution. evolution of the redevelopment at h5 is close to perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 0z NAM @ 81hrs.. Boom! Too bad its the NAM @ long range smh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Nam went nuts, near perfect solution for us with CCb from Phil to bos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 84 hour nam is epic, now just hold that solution another 4 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 84 hour nam is epic, now just hold that solution another 4 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 the ull over the NE elongates and a couple contours merge into the system....if this was the 48hr euro depiction, weenies would fly out of lady liberty's torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 Is it the NAM being the NAM or it just made best friends with the GEM. It is way out of it's range and after today anemic GFS who knows. I would like to see if the ECMWF trends north and see tonight;s GFS and GEM runs too. The short wave has entered Canada so maybe it is real, I will wait to see what the other models say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The way this month has gone I would not rule it out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The NAM shows us how we get a MECS from this system. Perfect sequence of events, most importantly, ROOM to amplify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Is it the NAM being the NAM or it just made best friends with the GEM. It is way out of it's range and after today anemic GFS who knows. I would like to see if the ECMWF trends north and see tonight;s GFS and GEM runs too. The short wave has entered Canada so maybe it is real, I will wait to see what the other models say. Drawing on some of the discussion above the NAM now has moved the confluent flow farther north and is drawing the vorticity farther west from the upper level low over Northern New England. This opens up the window for the secondary to develop farther northwest and tuck close to the coast.The jet dynamics also improve as there is less of a meat grinding mid level flow. I don't know man..the globals have been ticking this direction as well. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The NAM should be ignored on its own but I think the overall signal is for a honk. These always come north on the globals--or at least they have trended that way this season. What's crazy is that this is the one storm of the season where temperatures don't look to be an issue for any part... yet it's going to be on March 24th-25th. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Nam is great hit, I really don't think it has been too bad lately (or as bad as people make it out to be) - Did everyone forget how it was the only model than nailed the inverted trough last month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 It's the NAM... very hard to take it seriously, and it often overamplifies storms at this range. We'll see, hopefully other guidance shows a similar trend, especially the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Euro agreed with the huge change that the NAM has early on in the run out in the plains/midwest...so even if we toss the later part, I do think some of the big changes are real...the question is whether this gets compressed too much right as it gets to the east coast like the OP Euro showed...or if it comes north too on the coast...Euro ensembles did have significant QPF into that area (like 0.3 to 0.5 N to S) so clearly there were enough members in there amped to produce that on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Nam is great hit, I really don't think it has been to bad lately (or as bad as people make it out to be) - Did everyone forget how it was the only model than nailed the inverted trough last month? it was not the only...but it did well with it, though too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Still a bit skeptical...BTW, the NAM has been utterly terrible leading up to each of our past events this year. It may have agreement tonight from other NWP, but at this exact hour, I'm not making much of it (unless the GFS comes around). cue stormAtsea is with his climo argument..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Euro agreed with the huge change that the NAM has early on in the run out in the plains/midwest...so even if we toss the later part, I do think some of the big changes are real...the question is whether this gets compressed too much right as it gets to the east coast like the OP Euro showed...or if it comes north too on the coast...Euro ensembles did have significant QPF into that area (like 0.3 to 0.5 N to S) so clearly there were enough members in there amped to produce that on the mean. Yeah I think the potential is definitely there for this to tuck in near the coast. It's all about the jet dynamics at this latitude though, because even if the system comes to OC MD latitude (which would typically be sufficient for us)...if the mid/upper level flow is compressed to the north the precipitation has no chance. Would love to see the trends continue on the global models...NAM looks great but it doesn't do anything to increase my confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Ull seems to be moving out a little faster through hr 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Just about every big east coast system has trended north with each run around 84-120 hrs out. I suspect the same will happen with this system. I wouldn't be shocked if we get bypassed and this is another New England hit. Yeah I think the potential is definitely there for this to tuck in near the coast. It's all about the jet dynamics at this latitude though, because even if the system comes to OC MD latitude (which would typically be sufficient for us)...if the mid/upper level flow is compressed to the north the precipitation has no chance.Would love to see the trends continue on the global models...NAM looks great but it doesn't do anything to increase my confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Still a bit skeptical...BTW, the NAM has been utterly terrible leading up to each of our past events this year. It may have agreement tonight from other NWP, but at this exact hour, I'm not making much of it (unless the GFS comes around). most certainly.....i think looking at all the other guidance trending away from a big cutoff in the midwest is at least encouraging. now its a comes down to, not completely, but the ULL over the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Vort is further north this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Well Climo does play a part - if this happens midday it will be hard for it to stick even in moderate to heavy snow - you also have to take into account how we have been so below normal lately and how below normal the ocean is. Check this out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Ull pushing into a 50/50 low location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 It's coming north this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 this is a totally different setup w/regard to blocking and the pattern, what the other storms did is irrelevant if the same factors are not on the table. Just about every big east coast system has trended north with each run around 84-120 hrs out. I suspect the same will happen with this system. I wouldn't be shocked if we get bypassed and this is another New England hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Secondary just south of obx. Light preciep up to phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Well Climo does play a part - if this happens midday it will be hard for it to stick even in moderate to heavy snow - you also have to take into account how we have been so below normal lately and how below normal the ocean is. Check this out this is a pretty cold system man...not so sure daytime matters that much with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Hr 75 996 over obx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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