BxEngine Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 No less importantly what did the GFS do? judging by lack of commentary Im guessing it didnt go well? It was so bad they decided to retry it again at 11:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 It was so bad they decided to retry it again at 11:30. funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Typical High Amplification of the NAM. We shall see, I don' think anyone on this board will feel comfortable until the Euro comes on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 For this event, I'll be at Virginia, so I'll be doing the coverage from there. Okay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 For this event, I'll be at Virginia, so I'll be doing the coverage from there. Okay? Haha nice, I'll be looking forward to your reports of 33 degrees and heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Haha nice, I'll be looking forward to your reports of 33 degrees and heavy rain I'll be about 500-900' above sea level, so probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 GFS - The initial low pressure system dampens out over TX. Lots of energy diving down through the four corners region. Looks a bit more amplified and stronger but it's really early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Through hr 54 everything is just a bit stronger as compared to 6z. Low Pressure in northern Texas. ULL just NE of Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 New NAM has an impressive looking system initially, but it slides it out to our south with minimal precip up this way. DC/BAL/VA get a decent hit. WTF? Frankly, this looks great, and I think it would come somewhat further north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Hr 66 closing off at 500mb over Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 WTF? Frankly, this looks great, and I think it would come somewhat further north too. It's the NAM at hour 84 and not worth the paper it's printed on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 It's the NAM at hour 84 and not worth the paper it's printed on. Who'd waste the time or paper on printing? Let it stay on the computer screen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 lots of precip south and west at hr75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 All that I've gotten so far from this GFS run is that the ULL to the northeast is a hair less suppressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Pretty amped up at hr 78. Better height rises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Hr 81-84 the transfer is beginning. Cyclogenisis off the Carolina Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 All that I've gotten so far from this GFS run is that the ULL to the northeast is a hair less suppressive. I still think this should make it to our latitude, maybe not much further but it should make it. Whether it's as a messy, showery kind of event or a heavy snow wall makes all the difference in our case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Primary is dying off quick this run. Coming north at hr 87. Precip up to the Lower Hudson Valley, probably snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 The models are clearly having difficulties--that being said, this is my favorite threat of the 'winter' so far, besides the February storm. Very promising, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Not quite there yet. Initially it's very amplified but flattens out quickly and allows the storm to escape northeast. Still gets some precip into the area. It just slides east, a 75 mile shift northwest would make a world of difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 It's the NAM at hour 84 and not worth the paper it's printed on. Agree. I was just addressing the false claim that it was a fish storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Not quite there yet. Initially it's very amplified but flattens out quickly and allows the storm to escape northeast. Still gets some precip into the area. It just slides east, a 75 mile shift northwest would make a world of difference. Still have tons of time for that. If the confluence weakens just a little more, we should be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 In late March I cant bieleve with a primary trying to cut snow misses us South & East due to surpression.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Get the ULL to move out a bit more and we are in business. If we miss out then so be it but chances are we get some snow given the recent historic AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Get the ULL to move out a bit more and we are in business. If we miss out then so be it but chances are we get some snow given the recent historic AO. Or have a piece of it phase into the developing storm so it can gain some latitude. There's still plenty of time for such a scenario to pop up and there should be a number of opportunities to nudge this north a little more. Of course though, a wave can barely miss the incoming storm and act to suppress it more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 @ Hr 82 it comes off NC @ 996 , by hr 102 its 984 E ofthe BM .So the deepening is being seen 4 days out on the GFS one would assume the correction should be a little more North and West . I dont know if this gets to the Canadian but its not a bad look . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 0 850 still to the gulf at 135, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 0 850 still to the gulf at 135, lol I will say, I'm sick and tired of this cold, cloudy kind of weather. Unfortunately it doesn't look like it's letting up for at least 1-2 weeks, probably plenty more sub-32 nights and highs in the 40s to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 12z GGEM is still amped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Yeah GGEM came east a bit, but still a great hit. Franky all models are very close to each other for being 4 days away...just within a hundred miles or so with similar evolution...got to beielve Late March means something in getting this thing far enough north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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