MJO812 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Hr 114 993 east of acy. Mod preciep snj Moderate precip gets up to NYC and that's it. Primary is a little more east this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 115 hrs out. Nice to be just north of jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 115 hrs out. Nice to be just north of jackpot The position of the low looks similiar to the Euro ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 It's good to see some agreement among the major global models in the medium range with a strong signal for a surface low somewhere off the Delmarva coast or possibly farther north towards NJ. We will have to iron out the details as we get closer, but this is an encouraging look as we move forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 GEFS is wet, around 0.8 or so through 132 from NYC east. Problem is that there is never more than light to mod precip, and it falls over 30 hours. It looks like there is quite a bit of spread of the individual members, which would explain the extra long duration event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 The Canadian has now moved up to 2nd place at 5 days now behind the Euro. The GFS has now fallen to 5th place at this moment in time behind the JMA. This is interesting because both the JMA and Canadian have this storm affecting our area in a big way on Monday with at least .75 precip. Apparently the Euro ensembles are also a big hit, so this is starting to look very encouraging. It is just sad to me that the Canadians upgraded and now they are ahead of us. I am just wondering if this will be a long term situation? And if so, will we go to the 4DVR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 The GEFS are pretty nice. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep12120.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Coastal low is stronger at the surface but it slips ots this run on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 gfs slips SE. has a hard time phasing in any pieces from the northern stream. it actually doesnt look all that bad at h5, if one of the many waves floating around up north were to dive in on the backside, it would tighten up and come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 As the system transfers and heads east, we aren't getting any good height rises, in fact, the heights just continue to dampen. The trough out west is going to limit this storms potenital, it just allows it to shear out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 alot has to do with the strong ULL over NE/SE canada initially. it sheers out the initial transfer when its over the NE and strong, as it moves in a more favorable spot, ie 50/50, then the timing is off with any northern pieces phasing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Wait until you guys get your hands on the 00z Canadian...total monster. Perfect track, very strong redevelopment of the surface low and a ton of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Wait until you guys get your hands on the 00z Canadian...total monster. Perfect track, very strong redevelopment of the surface low and a ton of precipitation. Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Wow the Canadian is amazing, and it has been the most consistent model over the last few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 The 0z GGEM starts as rain for the coast. Then starts changing over to snow at 120hr: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 0z GEFS http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12108.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12120.gif North of the operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 The 0z GGEM starts as rain for the coast. Then starts changing over to snow at 120hr: Yeah, a ton of precipitation after that as well. Looks like a paste bomb for most interests...too bad it's the Canadian at 120 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Euro is definitely less organized at 108 hr. But it's trying to phase in a piece of the northern stream/remnant of the upper level low. Surface low is fairly weak but some decent precipitation up to around Philly at 108 hours. We'll see what happens int he next few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Heh, even a little fujiwara at 114. Just a little too disorganized...surface low is sub 1000mb off the coast at 114 hours with some light precipitation being thrown back into the PHL/NYC I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Euro ensembles agrees with op, maybe a hair north at 96 - It seems to get absorbed at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 The 6z GFS was really close to something bigger for the area. A tick NW and that would be a really nice look. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_096_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 We really need the confluence with that strong 50/50 low to ease in coming runs so this can tick a little more north . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Does anyone have the 00z JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Don't see it updated where I usually get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Is the gfs keying on a different piece of energy than the Euro? Seems almost a 24 hr difference in timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 New NAM has an impressive looking system initially, but it slides it out to our south with minimal precip up this way. DC/BAL/VA get a decent hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 New nam looks eerily similar in its rh and vv depiction (and even partially at 500mb too) to the 3/8 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 No less importantly what did the GFS do? judging by lack of commentary Im guessing it didnt go well? New NAM has an impressive looking system initially, but it slides it out to our south with minimal precip up this way. DC/BAL/VA get a decent hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 The 12z NAM is very amplified with the trough as it approaches the coast and is beginning to interact with the ULL northeast of Maine. Can't believe we're talking about the NAM at 84 hours, but it's depiction of the trough compared to the 6z GFS at the same time are light years apart. The GFS is completely flat and de-amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 The 12z NAM is very amplified with the trough as it approaches the coast and is beginning to interact with the ULL northeast of Maine. Can't believe we're talking about the NAM at 84 hours, but it's depiction of the trough compared to the 6z GFS at the same time are light years apart. The GFS is completely flat and de-amplified. Typical High Amplification of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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