IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 LOL it gets captured by the ULL up in eastern Canada at hour 144. Going to get tugged back towards Nova Scotta. A lot to watch in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 The Euro has 850 temps of -8 to -10 for early next week. The 850 freezing line gets down into Central Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 That Euro run was much much improved. It wouldn't take that much of an adjustment to bring meaningful precipitation into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 This storm is for Monday right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 That Euro run was much much improved. It wouldn't take that much of an adjustment to bring meaningful precipitation into the region. It had that look like it was going to come way north. Much less suppressed though. For a brief moment I thought it was going to make an attempt at a miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 It had that look like it was going to come way north. Much less suppressed though. For a brief moment I thought it was going to make an attempt at a miller A. that is a bad statement! Miller a starts in the gulf with no primary associated at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 that is a bad statement! Miller a starts in the gulf with no primary associated at all This did dig to the gulf and I thought it might not form a secondary at all and try to bring up one consolidated low, of course that didn't happen. (Up the coast that is, not a lakes cutter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 It would be nice if we could have a pure miller A, no major screwjobs with those, and a classic intensification pattern and CCB. Of course in late March, surface temps are a huge factor as well as the timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 It had that look like it was going to come way north. Much less suppressed though. For a brief moment I thought it was going to make an attempt at a miller A. I'm pretty confident this makes it far enough north to affect us, unless the blocking gets stronger. This is a healthy, energetic storm that will try for every inch north it can get. The issue then becomes whether this is an intense event where we can get real accumulations or if it's more of a sheared mess kind of event where it doesn't accumulate unless well inland and with elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Does The EURO have ay QPF getting into the region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 It would be nice if we could have a pure miller A, no major screwjobs with those, and a classic intensification pattern and CCB. Of course in late March, surface temps are a huge factor as well as the timing. We need a much improved PNA for that to even become a remote possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 We need a much improved PNA for that to even become a remote possibility. Oh well, I'll take a nice miller B too. Any future pattern implications with th PNA rising to more positive values going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 We need a much improved PNA for that to even become a remote possibility. Yeah I do realize the - PNA is really hurting our chance of a more amplified wrapped up system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Upton "THE TELECONNECTION OF SHARP POSITIVE CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO TIME OF THE AO AND NAO GOING TOWARDS LESS NEGATIVE VALUES AND POSITIVE PNA RELATE TO THE CYCLOGENESIS POTENTIAL. SO IT IS POSSIBLE FUTURE MODEL TRACKS COULD BE MORE NORTHERLY FOR SOME MODELS THAT KEEP AREA DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCREASING THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS AND COLDER AS WELL IF THE LOW TRENDS STRONGER. THAT WOULD BE MEAN A GREATER FRACTION OF THE REGION GETTING SNOW." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Upton Compromises often win out with the individual model solutions 5 days out. I could see a middle ground between the GGEM and the ECMWF as a final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 There was a very subtle shift in the 50/50 low 12z compared to 0z a little further east which reduced the confluence over New England on the Euro. Some incremental improvement in later runs would allow the main precipitation shield to shift north from Southern NJ and the Delmarva regions. The jet exit region near the MA would support a low bombing out once it gets to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Euro ensembles are slightly more north than the operational model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 I really doubt all that energy the GFS is showing just goes ots. If you look at the storm that is ots tomorrow, it is so much more amped than it was in the 60-80 hour time frame. Thats what I think will happen to this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 From someone who has access to the Euro ENS. Can someone confirm this? Can't post euro Ens but they are very nice. North and west of EURO OP. Look like JMA/NAVGEM...Philly to NYC get hit hard...both places do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 From someone who has access to the Euro ENS. Can someone confirm this? Confirmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 GGEM ensemble mean has the low close to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 The Euro ensembles are nice...surface low around the same spot as the OP, maybe a hair north. But a good precipitation signal from PHL to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Thanks for the confirmation guys. In case anyone missed it, this was the JMA from today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Thanks for the confirmation guys. In case anyone missed it, this was the JMA from today. [img=https://fbcdn-sphotos-f-a.akamaihd.net/h The JMA has looked like that since Its 196 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 The control run of the Euro is great .However Its making the same mistake it made with its precip field back days before the March 8th storm . It pulls its precip towards its center like you would see in hurricane , and thats wrong . With a SLP coming off NC and deepening to 992 just east of the Delmarva and still moving ENE the precip shield should be more expansive than whats shown . QPF is one of the hardest equations to solve for a model and usually becomes clearer as you get closer . Focus on the track and not the QPF 5 days out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Hr 93 996 just south of cincy. Trying to transfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Excellent point & accurate reminder of the 8th, the Euro and if I remember correctly GFS consistently painted the precp shield to the east of the low center with nada to the west The control run of the Euro is great .However Its making the same mistake it made with its precip field back days before the March 8th storm . It pulls its precip towards its center like you would see in hurricane , and thats wrong . With a SLP coming off NC and deepening to 992 just east of the Delmarva and still moving ENE the precip shield should be more expansive than whats shown . QPF is one of the hardest equations to solve for a model and usually becomes clearer as you get closer . Focus on the track and not the QPF 5 days out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Big run coming 996 secondary north of obx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Hr 114 993 east of acy. Mod preciep snj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 It's close this run. Still not there yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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