Allsnow Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 It does not bother me to see the Ggem so amp up. Better then ots at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 12z Navgem has a benchmark track https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2013032012∏=prpτ=132&set=All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 12z Navgem has a benchmark track https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2013032012∏=prpτ=132&set=All Real quick hitter, has basically no precip from the primary reaching us. It actually tracks inside the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Real quick hitter, has basically no precip from the primary reaching us. It actually tracks inside the benchmark. Does it even have a primary? I don't see it on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Does it even have a primary? I don't see it on the map. Yes at hour 126 it's sitting south of Lake Ontario. I thought the same as you until I looked at later frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 12z JMA takes the primary to Michigan and cuts it off then a secondary pops over eastern VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 My quick thoughts on the 12z GGEM and GFS: Both models are broadly suggesting that an in-close system is a possible scenario. How they get there differs, the broad takeaway is that something other than a suppressed solution is plausible. On the other hand, the ECMWF and ECMWF ensembles have been more suppressed, with the operational model being the more suppressed of the two pieces of guidance. Considering the historic late-season blocking in place, I give somewhat greater weight to the ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble solutions. Probably the most likely outcome is something between the two camps described above. Coastal areas into eastern New England might see the heaviest precipitation. At least some snow would be likely with a compromise solution. If there's merit to a compromise solution, perhaps the 12z ECMWF will take a step toward the GFS/GGEM, though model consensus could be slow to develop as has frequently been the case lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Not that it matters much, 12z GEFS mean snowfall through hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Euro is out to hr 42, will update as we get closer to our event. At hr 42 the primary low is forming in northern TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Through hr 72 broad low pressure hanging around the gulf states. Trough dropping down through the four corners region. Hour 78 deep trough in the west. Low sitting south of Denver. This run looks quite a bit more amplied and stronger with the trough out west compared to the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Euro is way more amp then last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Hour 90 trough going negative tilt. brough low pressure over the western gulf states Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Euro is way more amp then last night That's what I just said? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Really juiced up this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Hour 96 digging pretty far south. Broad low around the northern gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 The ULL east of Maine is trying to get out of the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Hour 102 consolidated low at last near Nashville. Already signs of another low in South Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Hour 108 3 sepereate low centers. One south of Atlanta, one in extreme eastern KY and one off the NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Very improved from last night. But I don't think he will be enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 1000 just south of obx. This run is very cold also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Hr 114, trough is quite amplified. Sub 1000 low off the NC coast. primary near the KY/WV border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Hr 120 light to mod snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Coming way north at hr 120. Coastal up to the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Hr 114, trough is quite amplified. Sub 1000 low off the NC coast. primary near the KY/WV border. Why cant we again have one person doing the analysis - its confusing - Allsnow you do it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Boom at 126, coastal completely takes over east of Ocean City, MD. Primary dead. Much improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 This run is close. But not totally there yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Hr 132 it just slips eastward. Coastal got down below 990. Couldn't see exactly how low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Well the trend today with most of the guidance has been to kill off the primary quicker, that's a good move in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 killing the primary off quicker is irrelevant unless that ULL is 150miles further NE. Its squashing any chance of this amplifying and turning up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 With the block in place, I don't how the primary would last as long as say the gfs shows it does, there will be plenty of adjustments to be made as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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