Allsnow Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Hr 111 still no organized costal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 114 here comes the coastal. Sub 996 low east of the VA Capes. Moderate snow over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Hr 114 finally 996 taking over. Temps crashing. It's not warm at all, so it's good to see the cold air around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Light to mod snow hr 117 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 117 temperatures begin to crash. The Primary headed towards Lake Erie. Broad low continues to sit off the mid-Atlantic Coast. Moderate snow continues. Primary dead at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Hr 120 light to mod snow continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 123 sub 992 low sitting southwest of the benchmark. Light to moderate precip continues. Surface warms again. No real CCB. 126 CCB starting to take shape but it's offshore, still lots of wrap around activity as the system slowly moves towards the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Nice improvement over the 6z run. A lot more runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 24+ hour event on the GFS of mostly light to moderate snow with surface temperatures being an issue the whole time. Throwing a norlun feature back at us at 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 24+ hour event on the GFS of mostly light to moderate snow with surface temperatures being an issue the whole time. Throwing a norlun feature back at us at 132. It will not be an issue if we get a stronger storm. Like I said in my last post, good improvements. The primary was further south and east compared to previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 shuts off between 135-138, about 0.50-1.00"+ areawide. More for Central and southern NJ. Keep in mind this over a 24-36 hour period with surface temps being an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 It will not be an issue if we get a stronger storm. Like I said in my last post, good improvements. The primary was further south and east compared to previous runs. Unless the CCB gets up this way I don't see it happening. The primary hangs on too long and the track is too far offshore once the CCB does begin to form. I agree, there were some improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 That ULL has to move further to the NE for us to get a major storm with no big temp issues, otherwise it's lighter snow with little accumulation with temps prob in the mid 30s. It's not Jan or Feb, we need a strong storm to get heavy snow accumulations in late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 the gfs is known for pushing too much precip into confluence but let's ignore that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 shuts off between 135-138, about 0.50-1.00"+ areawide. More for Central and southern NJ. Keep in mind this over a 24-36 hour period with surface temps being an issue. Temps are mostly in the mid and upper 30s the whole time. EWR: .56 NYC: .49 HPN: .37 SMQ: .69 ISP: .40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Temps are mostly in the mid and upper 30s the whole time. EWR: .56 NYC: .49 HPN: .37 SMQ: .69 ISP: .40 It's amazing how cold 850's are for this time of the year. You will not see this to often. The duration of it is unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 the gfs is known for pushing too much precip into confluence but let's ignore that I think the guidance continues to struggle with individual perturbations and pieces of energy, so its hard to say that any specific bias is coming into play right now especially in regards to precipitation on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 No doubt, the GFS verbatim is a grassy surface storm only. The snow maps on storm vista show no accumulations east of the DE river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 It's amazing how cold 850's are for this time of the year. You will not see this to often. The duration of it is unreal But that doesn't bode well for accumulations. We need a scenario like Monday night where it comes in late day/evening and falls heavily. I think we lose most of that to melting with some slushy accumulations at night or during periods of heavier precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 No doubt, the GFS verbatim is a grassy surface storm only. The snow maps on storm vista show no accumulations east of the DE river. Yeah but obviously with 5 days to go there's time for a cooler solution. The interior looks to be close to 32 at night so just north and west could do well, although based on this track places like Somerset/Hunterdon and into PA would be the jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 But that doesn't bode well for accumulations. We need a scenario like Monday night where it comes in late day/evening and falls heavily. I think we lose most of that to melting with some slushy accumulations at night or during periods of heavier precip I was just talking relative to climo. Nothing to do with Mondays snow threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 I was just talking relative to climo. Nothing to do with Mondays snow threat Gotcha. Yes I don't remember a March like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 No short of storm chances on the long range GFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Gotcha. Yes I don't remember a March like this march 2004 was pretty good... 3/16/04..........5.7" 3/17-18/04.....1.3" 3/19/04..........4.6" 11.6" in 4 days here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 march 2004 was pretty good... 3/16/04..........5.7" 3/17-18/04.....1.3" 3/19/04..........4.6" 11.6" in 4 days here. Yeah we had a cold middle of the month but it was an above normal month overall. This snowy period followed a pretty springlike beginning of the month and end to February with at least 7 or 8 days in the 60s. So far this month has featured only 2 warm days over 55 and no 60s yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Gotcha. Yes I don't remember a March like this Nobody does...AO dropped to -5.6 which is the lowest ever for this late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 GGEM has a 988 low just west of NYChttp://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&hh=132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 GGEM has a 988 low just west of NYC http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&hh=132 Ughh... You mean just east of PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Ughh... You mean just east of PHL The eveolution is very similar to the 12z GFS except it's deeper with both lows and has a more inland track with the coastal. The primary ends up in nearly the identical position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 12z GEFS are mostly SE of the op but not terrible. Nothing like the GGEM. They end up a hair wetter because they have the norlun trough feature furthern northeast than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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