Mitchel Volk Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Pretty impressive set up for next Sunday, it will be interesting if the ECMWF picks up on this. It could be a classic set up with the strong -NAO set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Everything will basically be aligning to produce a very favorable possibility of a major coastal storm, a powerful, possibly historical block as will be evidenced by the very negative AO numbers, a PNA spike as well might occur, and perhaps the biggest clue is the MJO being in phase 8 and transitioning to 1 as the storm develops, which was very similar to the early February SNE blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Everything will basically be aligning to produce a very favorable possibility of a major coastal storm, a powerful, possibly historical block as will be evidenced by the very negative AO numbers, a PNA spike as well might occur, and perhaps the biggest clue is the MJO being in phase 8 and transitioning to 1 as the storm develops, which was very similar to the early February SNE blizzard. While the block is powerful, it's much better oriented for us this go around when comparing to the march 8 storm. That, combined with the AO being almost off the charts, and the MJO, it seems like everything is going to come together for an east coast bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 This would be an impressive KU event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The bowling ball is not nearly as compact, and doesn't have nearly as many closed contours either. Since it's more broad, it can gain much more Gulf Moisture and have an initially further south surface reflection (remember Gulf convection and its feedback - especially now that we're in March!). And since it has fewer closed contours, it won't occlude nearly as early, too. A small piece of the departing ULL appears to phase, but there really isn't a full phase of any sorts that we have to have...the main ULL moves out in perfect fashion. It will be interesting to see in future runs how much phasing, if any, we need for this thing to come north. It would be nice to have margin for error with this. The airmass looks great as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 This is the same system Earthlight was eluding to for several days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 192 hrs out? This is desparation time! Not when the surrounding synoptic set up argues for a much higher than normal percentage chance of a winter weather event in that period. This goes all the way back to the developing favorable blocking over the high latitudes and a resulting impressive low level cold air source to our north. The Pacific is very active and it really is only a matter of time I think...I said a few days ago that of all of the disturbances this one poses the greatest threat for a big event. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 EURO looks really good as well by 240, not sure though if it's from the same storm as what the GFS was showing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The 0z Euro has a Nor'easter coming up for the 27th. Low off VA beach at 240hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Amazed a separate thread was created for 1 run of the GFS showing an east coast snowstorm at long range - when the next run at 6Z shows it east and a miss for the area http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPp12192.gif and the EURO has it several days later at 240 - way out of range and south http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Amazed? I'm not amazed; I'm embarrassed. Climo, climo, climo. Each day that passes by equals a drop in likelihood that a major event will occur. This pattern talk here by a few is bordering on hysteria imo. Amazed a separate thread was created for 1 run of the GFS showing an east coast snowstorm at long range - when the next run at 6Z shows it east and a miss for the area http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPp12192.gif and the EURO has it several days later at 240 - way out of range and south http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Snow has been recorded in Central Park on every single day in April except for the 30th (includes trace amounts and the records go back to the 1860's.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Amazed? I'm not amazed; I'm embarrassed. Climo, climo, climo. Each day that passes by equals a drop in likelihood that a major event will occur. This pattern talk here by a few is bordering on hysteria imo. March historically has produced more blizzards in this area than December and few doubt the possibilities of a snowstorm in December. I had an inch and a half of snow here yesterday and the temperature was 31 basically the whole day. Will likely get some more snow tomorrow. The pattern is favorable, that is what matters. Almost every other year in this area Northern New Jersey sees accumulating snow in the first week of April. I was nearly killed on Rt. 80 once in an early April snowstorm that produced several inches of snow and I remember once getting a foot of snow on like April 10th or something like that, and I am not 80 years old. We are not even talking April here yet, but we can definitely get big snowstorms here even in the first week of April if the pattern is right, and this year the pattern IS right. THAT is what matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 William...people are honking about secs and not traces. You know that Snow has been recorded in Central Park on every single day in April except for the 30th (includes trace amounts and the records go back to the 1860's.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Well certainly the odds go down as the days go by...but nothing is absolutely out of the question until maybe the middle of April...with a particularly favorable synoptic setup, an anomalously cold antecedent air mass, and a little bit of luck, i.e. the snow falls mainly after dark...you never know...and certainly areas above 500' are well positioned to cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Amazed? I'm not amazed; I'm embarrassed. Climo, climo, climo. Each day that passes by equals a drop in likelihood that a major event will occur. This pattern talk here by a few is bordering on hysteria imo. I find it really intriguing that you totally ignored all meteorological analysis as to why the pattern is favorable in this thread but continued with a post like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Well certainly the odds go down as the days go by...but nothing is absolutely out of the question until maybe the middle of April...with a particularly favorable synoptic setup, an anomalously cold antecedent air mass, and a little bit of luck, i.e. the snow falls mainly after dark...you never know...and certainly areas above 500' are well positioned to cash in. the odds are against any major storm now but long shots sometimes come in...if this was a horse race our horse would be favorite to win...It doesn't mean it will but the chances are good...the ao this morning is still forecast to hit -5.000 which would be a historic low for this time of year...the nao is also forecast to dip more negative about a week from now...If the forecast works out our chances for snow go up and the cold will continue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I find it really intriguing that you totally ignored all meteorological analysis as to why the pattern is favorable in this thread but continued with a post like this. Him and neg nao should share a room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Yes climo should be considered but this pattern that we are in now is more of a January pattern than a March pattern . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Yes climo should be considered but this pattern that we are in now is more of a January pattern than a March pattern . It is Currently 29 degrees outside my window with snow flurries. This picture is outside my window right now and yes, this is a golf course. Golf anyone? For those who don't think it can snow at the end of March in our area, then I don't know what to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The GFS is now OTS with this system. Close near miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The GFS is now OTS with this system. Close near miss. It's going to depend on the ULL once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 It's going to depend on the ULL once again. Yeah, lots of time to figure this all out with regard to how fast that ULL moves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I find it really intriguing that you totally ignored all meteorological analysis as to why the pattern is favorable in this thread but continued with a post like this. Pattern may certainly be favorable but saying "it's only a matter of time" is arguably just as bad as him dismissing it outright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Had 18" of snow over 8 days in March 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The pattern is very conducive for wintry precip in March 22nd-26th period, and this is something that has been discussed for a few weeks on here. This high latitude blocking episode has actually been progged quite well from far in advance. Back in the first week of March, many of us were discussing the potential renewed wintry period for March 15th-25th due to the major height rise over the Arctic/Greenland. Any short wave running W-E will be forced south via the enormous block and confluence across sern Canada. So for the March 20th-27th time frame you can essentially eliminate rain from the possibilities. Question in my mind is where exactly does the storm impact, and can it make it as far north as our latitude. Modelling right now, to no surprise, is suppressed. But quite frankly I'd rather have it that way at this range. It's not often you see storms shoved south into the Carolinas during late March due to the seasonal progression nwd of the ML jet but this block is so strong that it's a viable option. The regime is ripe and relative to normal, chances are much, much higher for accumulating snowfall. No guarantee but I'm willing to say the chances favor getting a snow event than not, which is impressive for this late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Pattern may certainly be favorable but saying "it's only a matter of time" is arguably just as bad as him dismissing it outright. I don't agree at all, especially when "it's only a matter of time" was backed up with a ton of meteorological reasoning and dismissing it was not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Models still all over the place on which wave to focus on. I was kind of hoping it would be the first one like yesterdays GFS runs were showing, but it may be one a few days later. We'll see. My hopes are not high, but if anyone can look at this pattern and not feel giddy something is wrong with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Models still all over the place on which wave to focus on. I was kind of hoping it would be the first one like yesterdays GFS runs were showing, but it may be one a few days later. We'll see. My hopes are not high, but if anyone can look at this pattern and not feel giddy something is wrong with them. I believe very much in the concept of pattern recognition and the idea of a Sunday storm does not fit. Look for it to almost definitely be the wave for Tuesday of next week that the Euro is focusing on. That wave fits the pattern that we are in of the big Tuesday storms that we have been experiencing for quite some time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I believe very much in the concept of pattern recognition and the idea of a Sunday storm does not fit. Look for it to almost definitely be the wave for Tuesday of next week that the Euro is focusing on. That wave fits the pattern that we are in of the big Tuesday storms that we have been experiencing for quite some time now. I don't think the atmosphere cares about days of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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