OHweather Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 HPC has fairly large swaths of potential moderate-heavy snow accumulations and ice accumulations in the upper Ohio Valley tomorrow into Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 This was quite a change in forecast, although I will give the GFS credit for showing the OH river snow threat a few days out. It also has the ice potential in Cincinnati tomorrow night....But a 1-2 degree change in temp profiles could mean game over and all rain. Will be real interesting to watch this one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 This was quite a change in forecast, although I will give the GFS credit for showing the OH river snow threat a few days out. It also has the ice potential in Cincinnati tomorrow night....But a 1-2 degree change in temp profiles could mean game over and all rain. Will be real interesting to watch this one.... Yeah...I'm not sure what to make of this over southern OH...precip shield ends up just a bit south tmr and there is no snow...or if it ends up just a bit farther north and it's too warm. I'll hope for a slushy inch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 NAM shows about 0.10"-0.25" of QPF for Monday morning around here. Top-down sounding suggests it's mostly snow. Not the heavy duty snows the GFS/GGEM was showing before, but at least we can try to recover whatever we can in the 11th hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 NAM shows about 0.10"-0.25" of QPF for Monday morning around here. Top-down sounding suggests it's mostly snow. Not the heavy duty snows the GFS/GGEM was showing before, but at least we can try to recover whatever we can in the 11th hour. The NAM is cooling NE OH enough for like .5-.75" of liquid to fall as snow...we'll see...I'm thinking the NE corner of the state sees like 1-2" of snow and maybe a brief period of zr. The storm tracking into extreme SE MI and the storm occluding before it gets there may also allow areas mainly north of the OH/MI boarder to hang on long enough for some token accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Looks like a quick hitting 1" of snow here tomorrow morning, followed by the thermal ridge and clearing skies. Should melt off quickly as temps reach the 40s, and then crash again late afternoon as strong CAA kicks in. Sort of a non-event, but an interesting day of transitions. This calls for a time lapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Thinking about 2" of snow here. Seems to be model consensus that the brunt of the limited QPF will come through while the column will support all snow. If the OV sfc low is weaker than progged though and sfc winds are more southerly rather than easterly, there could be bl thermal issues for YYZ. Not expecting that, but something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Looks like a quick hitting 1" of snow here tomorrow morning, followed by the thermal ridge and clearing skies. Should melt off quickly as temps reach the 40s, and then crash again late afternoon as strong CAA kicks in. Sort of a non-event, but an interesting day of transitions. This calls for a time lapse. Yeah, my sinuses love those kind of temperature swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 IND reporting -PL at 11:29pm. P&C forecast was plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Ice and light snow south of Indy. They may want to work on those zone forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 IND reporting -PL at 11:29pm. P&C forecast was plain rain. Salem, IL reporting thundersnow and 37f...decent area of convection heading ENE. Won't run into substantial cold air until it hits northern OH. Have seen some wet globs of snow mix in with the rain here off and on the last two hours in Athens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 ILN thinking about headlines due to prolonged wintry precip. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1044 PM EDT SUN MAR 17 2013 .SYNOPSIS... PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... PRECIPITATION IS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUFFICIENT COLD AIR LINGERING ALOFT...COMBINED WITH STRONG ASCENT DUE TO AN ENCROACHING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. THIS AND OTHER FACTORS WILL PRODUCE SOME FORECAST DIFFICULTIES WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE FIRST TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST TO MENTION WILL BE EXACTLY HOW LONG OUR WINTRY MIX OF SLEET...WITH POSSIBLY SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH...BEFORE A FULL TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS BY DAYBREAK. CURRENT TOP DOWN METHODOLOGY INDICATES THAT A PERIOD OF UP TO SEVERAL HOURS OF MIXED FROZEN PRECIP COULD OCCUR FROM NOW UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS PRECIP SPREADS NORTH INTO THIS TRANSITION ZONE. THE PROBABILITY FOR A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER NORTHWARD OF INTERSTATE 70. HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR THIS UPDATE AS THERE STILL REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DURATION FOR THIS WINTRY MIX. THE SECOND CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS RAIN MOVING ACROSS ZONES THAT RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL TODAY. REPORTS FROM OBSERVERS INDICATE THAT NEARLY .50 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT REMAINED WITH THE SURFACE SNOW PACK AS OF THIS EVENING. WITH QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO EXCEED A HALF INCH JUST DURING THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THERE COULD BE POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES AS WE GO INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THOSE AREAS. THE THIRD TRICKY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS WHETHER THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND CLOUD PHYSICS THAT IS SUPPORTING THUNDER WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO OUR WEST...WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER BEFORE SUNRISE ACROSS THE SOUTH...BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS TO OUR WEST...AND THE SPC SREF CALIBRATED THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Bloomington 34/30 and +RA. Close, but warm layer hanging tough. SPECI KBMG 180411Z AUTO 10011G19KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR OVC009 01/M01 A2989 RMK AO2 P0012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Parts of Kentucky did very well today. 0432 PM SNOW 3 NE CYNTHIANA 38.42N 84.26W03/17/2013 M4.0 INCH HARRISON KY EMERGENCY MNGR0535 PM SNOW BERRY 38.52N 84.38W03/17/2013 M6.0 INCH HARRISON KY PUBLIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Models still indicate a quick inch of snow tomorrow morning before the WAA kicks in. Given trends this season of events crapping the bed at the last second I'll be surprised if we even get anything measurable here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 lol, hrw-nmm drops over 4" of snow here tomorrow. Definitely becoming one of the wieniest models out there. http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/832/lolizh.jpg/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Both the RAP and HRRR bring band of snow through the area during the morning followed by more snow with the passage of the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 lol, hrw-nmm drops over 4" of snow here tomorrow. Definitely becoming one of the wieniest models out there. bow echo with WAA wing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 bow echo with WAA wing lol. Derecho season only about 3 months away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 bow echo with WAA wing That's more like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Some snow, some [expletive], and some freezing rain here overnight. Light glaze on elevated objects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Snow has commenced here with temps around 30F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 F*ck sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Light snow atm, about 0.5" already down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Light snow atm, about 0.5" already down. Is this in Racine? Here it's only a dusting so far, I hope that dry pocket in Kenosha County fills in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 F*ck sleet. It's the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Is this in Racine? Here it's only a dusting so far, I hope that dry pocket in Kenosha County fills in. Yeah but its already tapering off. More snow should move in later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Yeah but its already tapering off. More snow should move in later this afternoon. We should get around an inch or inch and a half I would say. Quarter to half an inch down right now, flake size is waning a bit, but looks like temps dropped a couple degrees once the snow started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Don't totally mind days like today... Cold enough to snow nicely and get a dusting, but not bitterly so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Heard it sleeting at some point early this morning. Snowing pretty good out there now. Probably around a half inch down. Even paved areas are dusted over, which is pretty impressive for mid-late March during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.