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Central PA - second half of March 2013


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C'mon Chris....are you really going to be a party pooper for our area?  I understand completely your cynicism over our immediate area getting the shaft again and again, but at least NWS has us both at 1 to 2"...which I believe is going to verify LOW....but that's all I am going to say about my feelings on this storm.  Always remember that CAD situations tend to do well in the Cumberland Valley area.  So...cheer up and think positive, bud!  :snowing:
My point and click is a mix of snow and sleet up to an inch. CTP is almost always right. This year they've been damn near perfect.
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00z NAM has a strong sleet signal for the UNV area with the heaviest precip falling during 800mb temperatures of 1C, but 900mb of -3.5

 

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kunv.txt

The sleet is and always will be central PA's downfall. If the snow totals bust, you'll know it when the ping pings start hours before it's supposed to. 2/14/07 was one of the more wretched such events. Impossible to rule it out. The one hopefully saving grace is that the primary low is so far northwest that the worst of the WAA waits until a lot of it's over. But that's the one way I see it busting downward.

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Euro looks like it has a bit more of a robust surge of 850 temps, esp in AOO and UNV (getting to 4.7ºC and 2.5ºC respectively for a frame). That doesn't look to affect front end snow before mixing occurs as bulk of QPF already will have been thru. 2m temps stayed at or a bit below freezing. MDT arguably had a pretty good front end dump by the looks of the text with a 6 hour frame of 0.51" with surface temps right at about freezing and 850s of -1.8ºC. Another 0.4" falls overnight Monday as likely liquid but quite close to maybe having some zr issues around there. MDT stays at 33ºF for that time period. I still tend to agree with more of a 1-2" event like CTP does for Harrisburg with less farther south and east, but I am still open to that region overachieving if we can get heavy precip there early on. I'd keep an eye on it down there as precip moves in later this morning.

 

Also, this is a bit off the beaten path.. but the Euro was cold Friday morning. Dare I say potentially record cold in places. For 12z Friday morning the Euro printed out a 2m temp at UNV of -16.5ºC.. or 2ºF. FIG was even colder (pretty much 0ºF). Low temps like that would be pretty remarkable for this time of the year. 

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Euro looks like it has a bit more of a robust surge of 850 temps, esp in AOO and UNV (getting to 4.7ºC and 2.5ºC respectively for a frame). That doesn't look to affect front end snow before mixing occurs as bulk of QPF already will have been thru. 2m temps stayed at or a bit below freezing. MDT arguably had a pretty good front end dump by the looks of the text with a 6 hour frame of 0.51" with surface temps right at about freezing and 850s of -1.8ºC. Another 0.4" falls overnight Monday as likely liquid but quite close to maybe having some zr issues around there. MDT stays at 33ºF for that time period. I still tend to agree with more of a 1-2" event like CTP does for Harrisburg with less farther south and east, but I am still open to that region overachieving if we can get heavy precip there early on. I'd keep an eye on it down there as precip moves in later this morning.

 

Also, this is a bit off the beaten path.. but the Euro was cold Friday morning. Dare I say potentially record cold in places. For 12z Friday morning the Euro printed out a 2m temp at UNV of -16.5ºC.. or 2ºF. FIG was even colder (pretty much 0ºF). Low temps like that would be pretty remarkable for this time of the year. 

 

Snow map on accuweather 6"+ for all of SE PA. 

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I am going to say what we're all thinking...what is with that radar!!! lol...looks strung out. However, RAP runs get better as they go. Jmister we are at 19.2 is that above what we though...also dews are pretty low too.

Here are the 11z temperature obs. It looks like you are a good deal cooler than the IPT airport, so yeah I'd be more wary of ZR at your location. 

 

post-1406-0-25865000-1363604993_thumb.pn

 

I was surprised to see UNV cooled slightly at 11z, whereas FIG warmed a degree.

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I am starting to get worried about a sleet storm here. Is there a website that I could look at a current sounding for UNV? 

No, unfortunately UNV does not do regular soundings although the met department will occasionally send one up.

 

I was actually just thinking about this. What if some of us talked with the higher-ups in the department and tried organizing weather balloon launches for interesting events such as these border-line snow storms, and severe wx? I would be willing to talk to Paul Knight about it...

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Radar is kind of blah

 

Looks a bit unorganized, but plenty of moisture still.  Agree that it's not looking like its gonna be much of a "thump" to start at least.

 

Jmister, once precip begins evap cooling could get our temps closer to the NAM numbers, correct?  No matter what, just gonna enjoy whatever we can get today.

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No, unfortunately UNV does not do regular soundings although the met department will occasionally send one up.

 

I was actually just thinking about this. What if some of us talked with the higher-ups in the department and tried organizing weather balloon launches for interesting events such as these border-line snow storms, and severe wx? I would be willing to talk to Paul Knight about it...

 

Millersville does do it occasionally...especially with big storms. I don't think they're doing one today as it's a minor event for the LSV...

 

Lots of dry air out there eating up the light precip around here. That second round moving into western PA looks really angry....if it holds together and temps hold steady, it could mean a blast of snow before changing to sleet->rain from the south to the north. 

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Looks a bit unorganized, but plenty of moisture still.  Agree that it's not looking like its gonna be much of a "thump" to start at least.

 

Jmister, once precip begins evap cooling could get our temps closer to the NAM numbers, correct?  No matter what, just gonna enjoy whatever we can get today.

it could yes but doesnt look like heavy thump gets here until afternoon that would be heavy enough to saturate the air and bring temps down closer to wet bulb... by then too much warm air may get pulled in from the south where there currently is no precip with WV and western Virginia/MD currently dry and already warming and eastern VA/MD doing the same over next few hours

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