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Central PA - second half of March 2013


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Map looks solid. Expand the 6-8 in Cameron county into Clearfield and Centre. 

I think warnings go out for the central mountain counties, northern tier and Laurels/Alleghenies counties. Advisories likely from IPT south along the Susquehanna and the ridge/valley counties like Juniata and Huntingdon, although they might get a good dumping also. The toughest call seems to be for places like Lewistown, Bedford and the south-central ridge and valley region.

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I'm thinking 5-7" generally along I-99 including UNV and AOO, maybe spots to 8"-same for areas further west including FIG/DUJ. JST generally the same deal, 4-6" I'd say before going to sleet/ZR. 4-6" also for IPT and then 2-5" south from SEG to around Harrisburg. 1-3" southeast of there. There could be more if the front end comes in heavy right away-these can sometimes bust well and the airmass looks pretty cold and dry for now. 12z models seem to be trending slightly colder, which is typical of CAD scenarios where they catch on last-minute. The Euro from yesterday was probably overdone but I could see a nice surprise in store for some.

 

This pretty much matches my thoughts.

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I'd look at RAP, NAM and RGEM, GFS inside 24hrs than anything else. 

 

Haha, well we'll agree to disagree on all of the above, except maybe the RGEM. I'd probably trust the following models most at around 24 hrs out:

1. Euro

2. UKMET

3. RGEM

4. GFS/NAM blend

5. Anything else. :P

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Haha, well we'll agree to disagree on all of the above, except maybe the RGEM. I'd probably trust the following models most at around 24 hrs out:

1. Euro

2. UKMET

3. RGEM

4. GFS/NAM blend

5. Anything else. :P

Euro is a medium range model though

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Yes. Which makes it that much more disappointing to me that it (again, in my opinion :P ) performs better than the models that are supposed to do well within 48 hrs.

lol yea... really makes the american models look bad when a medium range model can outperform a near range one...

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Just because one event or multiple systems did not pan out for snow accumulations for a region, it has no baring on what will happen with a future storm. That reasoning has no statistical or scientific evidence to support any sort of forecast. 

I would somewhat disagree with this.  while each storm is unique, patterns tend to develop which can lead to repetitive occurrences.  1 rule I've used which seems to work pretty well is to forecast the pattern until the pattern is broken.  I'm not saying that this storm definitely won't produce snow in areas that haven't seen much so far this winter, but if you're in a marginal area with this one I would bet this is not the pattern breaker.

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I personally don't know about the icing danger unless youre talking about terrain with deeper locked in cold. I find it hard to believe that freezing rain will be so prevalent with marginal low layer temps. If this was Jan, then maybe, but I just see this being white/ slushy. Nice map eastern!

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I would somewhat disagree with this. while each storm is unique, patterns tend to develop which can lead to repetitive occurrences. 1 rule I've used which seems to work pretty well is to forecast the pattern until the pattern is broken. I'm not saying that this storm definitely won't

produce snow in areas that haven't seen much so

far this winter, but if you're in a marginal area with this one I would bet this is not the pattern breaker.

I agree with this. Not saying we can't see snow down this way tomorrow, but I'd wager a much better chance on getting something significant from a large dynamic coastal to get it done down here.

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I personally don't know about the icing danger unless youre talking about terrain with deeper locked in cold. I find it hard to believe that freezing rain will be so prevalent with marginal low layer temps. If this was Jan, then maybe, but I just see this being white/ slushy. Nice map eastern!

 

Thanks. I agree. With surface temps at 31-32 and the solar radiation I find it hard to believe the ice will be able to stick much without melting off. 

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I'm forecasting for Weather World again tomorrow, but thankfully the snow should start before air time so it should be an easier forecast.  Here is the latest RPM for those interested...

 

3502vz8.png

 

I've heard the RPM is a horrible horrible model. Any met can fill us in if that is true? From each storm so far I have seen it has been terrible. Had 17" for me for the March 6th storm. lol

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I personally don't know about the icing danger unless youre talking about terrain with deeper locked in cold. I find it hard to believe that freezing rain will be so prevalent with marginal low layer temps. If this was Jan, then maybe, but I just see this being white/ slushy. Nice map eastern!

I could see freezing rain being a threat somewhere-the NAM wants to warm up the mid-low levels such as 850mb before the surface, and the 32 deg line hangs out for quite some time in the mid Susq. valley and over to the ridges/valleys west of there, so there could be a zone where the cold is shallow enough for freezing rain.

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I've heard the RPM is a horrible horrible model. Any met can fill us in if that is true? From each storm so far I have seen it has been terrible. Had 17" for me for the March 6th storm. lol

We use the RPM for our "Predictor" model. It's pretty good inside of 12 hours but has its faults (doesn't every model?)...about 24-48 hours out it gets funky and can go from very conservative to VERY aggressive from run to run. Past 48 hours it does a pretty good job again. Screwy little model.

In this case, I think it's a bit over done on some amounts. That sun-angle is going to be a real potential bust-maker if you don't have some heavy rates or locked into the low-level cold air. I think a coating-1" is good for more of the LSQV with 1-3" from the I-81 north and 3-6 for Central PA up on north. Some ridges could pick up 8, but likely near I-99 or north of UNV

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