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Central PA - second half of March 2013


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Wow we are getting throttled right now. Just measured nearly 2.5"... about 1.5-2.0" of that has fallen in the last hour.

Enjoy! I like what I am seeing on the radar. It looks like the LSV make get in on the fun in just a little while. :snowing:

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Wow - that is amazing accum for a short time period! 

 

As is often the case, that band pretty much fell apart before reaching SC - have a dusting here.

 

Yea i absolutely can't believe how rapidly it piled up.. it was def aided by very efficient snow crystal growth, It's settled down a bit with more of a steady light to moderate snow for now. 

 

Snow still looks pretty heavy in the State College area as per 511pa cams and there's a heavier portion of the band trying to come up from Huntingdon County. It does look like some of the very heavy stuff with this initial band did split north and south of State College a bit. 

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Have about an inch here. Not really expecting much more here as daylight approaches and the rates diminish.

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0330
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0431 AM CDT MON MAR 25 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN/SRN PA...ERN PANHANDLE OF
   WV...WRN/CNTRL/NRN MD...NRN DE....SWRN NJ
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 250931Z - 251530Z
   
   SUMMARY...MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER ERN OH/WRN
   PA....WHILE SNOW INCREASES AND SPREADS NEWD FROM NRN VA AND THE ERN
   WV PANHANDLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN/CNTRL MD INTO THE LWR
   SUSQUEHANNA AND DELAWARE VALLEYS OF PA...NJ...AND NRN DE.
   
   DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW ORIGINAL MID-LVL LOW/VORT
   CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY'S MIDWESTERN SNOW STORM NOW
   ELONGATING INTO A W-E SHEAR AXIS/TROUGH OVER SRN PORTIONS OF IND/OH.
   THIS WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE UPR CENTER REFORMS E OF
   DELAWARE BAY LATER TODAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NOW OVER SE OH ALSO
   SHOULD WEAKEN...WITH NEW SFC CENTER CONTINUING TO DEEPEN ABOUT 125
   MILES E OF HATTERAS.
   
   WITH DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OH VLY SYSTEM LIKELY TO
   CONTINUE WEAKENING...EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES TO SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISH
   AFTER MID-MORNING OVER ERN OH AND WRN/CNTRL PA. IN THE MEAN
   TIME...ISOLD 1 IN/HR RATES MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF SW AND S CNTRL PA.



			
		
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Not that I believe this, but the HRRR has been consistently showing some decent snow totals for the southern tier counties in SC PA and into MD as well. Also, in the past 5 runs it has been bumping UP totals

 

post-5336-0-39730700-1364208180_thumb.pn

 

I think 8-10 in the Lower Susq Valley is way too high. It would take a prolonged period of +SN to get anywhere close to that, and the best dynamics appear off to the east. Anyone know anything about the HRRR? Wet/Cold bias? Possibly using too high of ratios?

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I'm thinking that HRRR almost has to be wrong looking at radar trends and other modeling??

 

Shockingly, it's pretty close to what the radar looks like (comparing 11z forecast vs current) for SE PA, MD, DE, etc.. I think it's overdoing intensity as it goes through time, but 8-10 is obnoxious.

 

Also, 8-10 in western Cumberland, Perry, Mifflin, Juniata is too high. But I've been fooled before, so who knows. 

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Not that I believe this, but the HRRR has been consistently showing some decent snow totals for the southern tier counties in SC PA and into MD as well. Also, in the past 5 runs it has been bumping UP totals

 

 

 

I think 8-10 in the Lower Susq Valley is way too high. It would take a prolonged period of +SN to get anywhere close to that, and the best dynamics appear off to the east. Anyone know anything about the HRRR? Wet/Cold bias? Possibly using too high of ratios?

I don't have a answer for you....but I have noticed the NWS snowfall maps always seem to run a little high too.

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