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Central PA - second half of March 2013


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Not sure why the NWS has 3-6 inches here in State College. I'm thinking more like 2-3 inches... 4 if we get lucky.

 

I think State College could manage about 4" or so fairly easily as long as rates are good enough. If it's more of a lighter drawn out event during the day Monday that 2-3 might well end up being the realized amount on the ground. CTP actually sounds fairly cautious in their discussion, if the SREFs had their way, there would be several more southern tier counties warned. They are giving some weight to the somewhat drier Euro, which is probably a good bet considering the last couple storms. I'm thinking 4-6" will generally be high end for this, with scattered 6-8 amounts relegated to the Laurels. IPT should see a couple inches and the Lower Sus Valley folks should manage more of a 2-5" type deal. 

 

This could certainly end up better or worse. It seems like the southern half of PA is in a pretty decent place for the track of this system, and we'll have a good easterly fetch. That should not be strong enough to introduce ptype issues for folks in this forum though like the March 6th storm. We also have better cold in place. One concern in the early going, at least in my opinion is the precip shield being a bit broken over Illinois and Indiana. I guess would like to have seen a more filled in look to things but there's still time for that to get it's act together. All in all this should end up yet another decent snow event considering what the calendar says. 

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http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=offAT THIS POINT IN THE STORM`S EVOLUTION...UPSTREAM STATIONS AREONLY OBSERVING SNOW IN THE 1-3 MILE VISIBILITY RANGE. WHILE THAT`SNO GUARANTEE OF THE STORM`S EVOLUTIONARY POTENTIAL...I`D FEELBETTER IF I SAW MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FALLING OVER THEMIDWEST.

Wmsptwx

 

IPT: less than an inch

UNV: 2 to 4

MDT: 3 to 6

AOO: 4 to 6

JST: 4 to 6

AVP: Less than an inch.

 

 

I think IPT will get 2"  rest don't look to bad.

 

The SREFs and NAM haven't been all that impressive lately.

 

Several stations out around St. Louis have reported +SN in the past couple hours.  

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Feeling the same way on this one. East of the Susky it's going to be rough.

What makes you say that? Cold upper levels, marginal lower levels, sure, but the thump comes as temps are below 0c in the entire column as far east as Chester county. After 15z is the tricky part, but most accumulations will have fallen or fall in that time frame

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WITHIN THE HIGHEST PWAT PLUME...THE 12Z NAM/GFS SEEM TO UNDER DOTHE GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY ALMOST 0.30 INCHES ALONG THE ERNGULF COAST.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd

 

What implications is this going to have??  Good/ Bad

 

 

Edit: That's alot of moisture.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

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Dew points are low across central PA right now, which normally would allow your to wet blub to at or below freezing once precipitation starts.  But, winds are switching to the E -> SE and transporting in 40+ degree air off the ocean.  This reinforces my thinking that south and east of I-81 is going to see minimal, if any impact from this storm.

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WITHIN THE HIGHEST PWAT PLUME...THE 12Z NAM/GFS SEEM TO UNDER DO
THE GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY ALMOST 0.30 INCHES ALONG THE ERN

GULF COAST.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd

What implications is this going to have?? Good/

Bad

Good this will over perform for the end of March.

Not sure why some of worried.

Edit: That's alot of moisture.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

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WITHIN THE HIGHEST PWAT PLUME...THE 12Z NAM/GFS SEEM TO UNDER DO
THE GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY ALMOST 0.30 INCHES ALONG THE ERN

GULF COAST.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd

What implications is this going to have?? Good/

Bad

Good this will over perform for the end of March.

Not sure why some of worried.

Edit: That's alot of moisture.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

Paweather thanks for answering my question.

EURO is drier, only brings .5 to PHL.

Wmsptwx with this storm starting in about 12 hours is the Euro even in it's range? "that's a serious question"

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Dew points are low across central PA right now, which normally would allow your to wet blub to at or below freezing once precipitation starts.  But, winds are switching to the E -> SE and transporting in 40+ degree air off the ocean.  This reinforces my thinking that south and east of I-81 is going to see minimal, if any impact from this storm.

 

Perhaps this explains the crazy disparity between Hagerstown NWS forecast and Waynesboro NWS forecast. An inch or two for Hagerstown, 4-7 for Waynesboro--someone is going to bust hard, one way or the other.

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Paweather thanks for answering my question.

Wmsptwx with this storm starting in about 12 hours is the Euro even in it's range? "that's a serious question"

 

Back in the south convection along the Gulf coast was bad, as it robbed us of moisture. Not sure how it impacts things here, but if they're saying the NAM is underdoing the convection along the Gulf then it might not be a good thing (and perhaps another reason they're preferring the GFS/UKMET now).

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