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Central PA - second half of March 2013


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SREFs here in State College have trended up the past three runs. Latest run has a min of 4.4", max of 15.4", and a mean of 8.6" (median is around 7.7"). Still, I'm going to go with expecting 2-4 inches. We've seen this type of storm over and over again this winter, and I don't expect this one to be any different.

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I'm once again worried about the transport of mild ocean air back into eastern parts of the region. Much like the early March storm, another connection from the east will flow into SE PA. I don't think it's AS efficient as the previous storm at getting the milder air inland (the storm itself is weaker), but the wild card still remains. People living east of the Susquehanna River may have some mixing that would cut down on totals. Instead of 2-4" east of the river..it looks like a sloppy C-2 or 1-3", but maybe I'm being paranoid.

 

Any others with thoughts on this?

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I'm once again worried about the transport of mild ocean air back into eastern parts of the region. Much like the early March storm, another connection from the east will flow into SE PA. I don't think it's AS efficient as the previous storm at getting the milder air inland (the storm itself is weaker), but the wild card still remains. People living east of the Susquehanna River may have some mixing that would cut down on totals. Instead of 2-4" east of the river..it looks like a sloppy C-2 or 1-3", but maybe I'm being paranoid.

 

Any others with thoughts on this?

yeah i agree. As mentioned earlier, it has already happened this year.

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Been peering into my home region forum...though they are in line for a lot of precip - at least in PHL proper, any snow might be slow to accumulate.

Getting daytime snow to accumulate there in late march this time of year is an order of magnitude tougher than here I'd imagine

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IF the snow is heavy enough then you should expect it to accumulate.  March 93 had no issue with accumulation, it was only a week or so earlier.  my guess would be that we will see widespread 2-4 with some areas over preforming. Remember we have seen a couple of models with big hits. I would give them a 10% of being close. (> 6)

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My thoughts are I feel the best shot of good accumulations are west of I-81. Better timing due to precip moving in at night and higher elevation. I am feeling 2-4 for UNV with 6 inches on the higher ridge tops SW of town. The Laurels will be the winner with 6-10 in my opinion. In between 4-6. CTP's map looks spot on, except in the east.

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Elinwood (red-tagger)'s forecast:

 

 


Figured I should sneak in an initial forecast before going into work today. More of the same as far as sharp gradients and low-level temperature issues are concerned. Also, March.

attachicon.gif 20130324-25_MAsnowInitial.png

Further discussion, though you all probably know how it is already: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/blog/16/entry-90-mid-atlantic-snow-forecast-for-march-24-25-initial/

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IF the snow is heavy enough then you should expect it to accumulate.  March 93 had no issue with accumulation, it was only a week or so earlier.  my guess would be that we will see widespread 2-4 with some areas over preforming. Remember we have seen a couple of models with big hits. I would give them a 10% of being close. (> 6)

 

March 93 also brought in extreme cold temps, and had very high snow rates. I seem to remember that at least in Pittsburgh, temps dropped through the 20's and teens in that storm.

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NAM is a big hit for LSV, increase in qpf up here. 

 

MDT: 

 

MON  2A 25-MAR   0.1    -5.6    1004      92     100    0.05     540     537    MON  8A 25-MAR  -0.9    -6.4    1000      98      99    0.39     533     533    MON  2P 25-MAR  -0.2    -6.6     997      94      98    0.54     528     530    MON  8P 25-MAR   0.7    -6.9    1003      95      81    0.14     532     530    

UNV: 

 

 

MON  2A 25-MAR  -1.3    -6.0    1004      96      97    0.09     538     535    MON  8A 25-MAR  -2.0    -6.8    1002      98      96    0.32     532     530    MON  2P 25-MAR   1.0    -6.9    1000      85      90    0.19     530     530    MON  8P 25-MAR  -0.1    -6.9    1004      90      52    0.03     534     530

 

IPT

 

 

MON  2A 25-MAR  -1.5    -6.0    1005      95      84    0.01     539     535    MON  8A 25-MAR  -2.1    -6.7    1003      97      94    0.18     534     532    MON  2P 25-MAR   0.7    -7.3    1000      85      86    0.27     530     531    MON  8P 25-MAR  -0.1    -7.0    1003      92      53    0.05     533     530 
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GFS snowfall looks to be pretty reasonable. As Allweather stated I'm wondering if later in the storm if mixing will be a problem.

Mag must have taken this storm off for the weekend.

 

Seems reasonable to me as well...I bet coastal Jersey gets another thump at the end with the trailing CCB. 

 

Also, not sure about that much snow south of the Mason-Dixon line (near Baltimore/D.C.)...Seems as though temps profiles will be iffy for accumulating snows.

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Seems reasonable to me as well...I bet coastal Jersey gets another thump at the end with the trailing CCB. 

 

Also, not sure about that much snow south of the Mason-Dixon line (near Baltimore/D.C.)...Seems as though temps profiles will be iffy for accumulating snows.

GFS has been very steady too. 

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http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=offAT THIS POINT IN THE STORM`S EVOLUTION...UPSTREAM STATIONS AREONLY OBSERVING SNOW IN THE 1-3 MILE VISIBILITY RANGE. WHILE THAT`SNO GUARANTEE OF THE STORM`S EVOLUTIONARY POTENTIAL...I`D FEELBETTER IF I SAW MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FALLING OVER THEMIDWEST.

Wmsptwx

 

IPT: less than an inch

UNV: 2 to 4

MDT: 3 to 6

AOO: 4 to 6

JST: 4 to 6

AVP: Less than an inch.

 

 

I think IPT will get 2"  rest don't look to bad.

 

The SREFs and NAM haven't been all that impressive lately.

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