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Central PA - second half of March 2013


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from PBZ

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...

...POTENTIAL MAJOR LATE SEASON WINTER STORM MOVING TOWARD THE AREA

SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY...

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING TOGETHER MUCH MORE NICELY IN THE

DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT EMERGES

FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND TRACKS THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI

VALLY BEFORE EMERGING TOWARD SOUTHERN OHIO BY SUNDAY NIGHT. IN

FACT...BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE POSITION AND

DEPTH OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE SYSTEM ARE SO MINOR THAT

THE VARIANCE IN MSLP IS LESS THAN 3 HPA...AND THE LOCATION VARIES

ON BY A FEW COUNTIES AT MOST. THIS IS PARTICULARLY POIGNANT

CONSIDERING THAT THE PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY

SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN...WITH INSTABILITY UNLIKELY TO PLAY A LARGE

ROLE IN GENERATION. AS SUCH...WITH A WELL DEVELOPED AND EVENTUALLY

OCCLUDING SYSTEM ROLLING INTO THE REGION...THE RELATIVE LOCATION

OF THE TROWAL AIR STREAM AND DEFORMATION ZONE WITH ATTENDANT

NEGATIVE OMEGA WILL BE CRITICALLY IMPORTANT TO WHERE THE AXIS OF

HEAVIEST QPF EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS AND TO WHAT EXTENT IT MOVES NORTH

INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS SAID...THE SREF HAS BEEN

TROUBLINGLY CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST DAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN

FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH LENDS EXTREME CREDENCE TO THEIR SOLUTIONS

RELATIVE TO THE MORE INCONSISTENT GFS AND CANADIAN PROGRESSIONS.

AS SUCH...THE FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY TOWARD THE ECMWF AND SREF FOR

THE REFLECTION OF QPF AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...WHICH

FAVORS A STRONG DEFORMATION BAND MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT

FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

WHILE THE DEFORMATION BAND IS LIKELY TO MAKE IT AT LEAST AS FAR

NORTH AS PITTSBURGH SUNDAY NIGHT...IT IS STILL AN OPEN QUESTION AS

TO HOW MUCH FARTHER NORTHWARD IT MAY TRANSLATE. THE NORTHERN

PERIPHERY OF DEFORMATION LIFT AS WELL AS DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR

THAT WILL BE LIKELY TO TRY TO FEED IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BE

CONTROLLING FACTORS AS TO HOW FAR NORTHEAST SIGNIFICANT QPF MAY

DEVELOP. AT THE MOMENT...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH I-80 MAY BE A GOOD

TERMINATOR FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF...HOWEVER THIS IS LIKELY TO BE

ADJUSTED SEVERAL TIMES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THAT

SAID...DECENT CONSENSUS ON THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE

DEFORMATION ZONE WITH A 6-10 HOUR WINDOW OF STRONGLY NEGATIVE

OMEGAS STRINGING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER FAVORS SNOW TO LIQUID

RATIOS UP TO 15:1 OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN WARM

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS A LIKELY SECLUSION OF

WARM AIR THAT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN

OHIO...THESE RATIOS WERE CUT SUBSTANTIALLY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR

AND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FROM WHEELING SOUTHWARD.

BECAUSE THE MODELS FAVOR A FILLING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER

SOUTHERN OHIO ON MONDAY AND A TRANSITION TO COASTAL

CYCLOGENESIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY TAKE OVER...AND THE

DEFORMATION BAND WILL LIKELY FALL APART DUE TO FILLING OF THE LOW.

THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN SNOWS TO END ON

MONDAY...HOWEVER BEFORE THEY DO...THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE

SREF...NAM...AND ECMWF ALL PAINT ROUGHLY 0.4-0.6 INCHES OF QPF

UNDER THE FAVORED DEFORMATION AXIS PARKING REGION. ODDLY

ENOUGH...THE MODELS SEEM TO BE FAVORING A LOCATION SIMILAR TO THAT

WHICH OCCURRED A COUPLE WEEKS AGO WHEN THE PA TURNPIKE CORRIDOR

WAS SLAMMED. THAT SAID...THE FORECAST HAS ADJUSTED TAPERING THESE

0.4-0.6 INCH NUMBERS DOWNWARD AWAY FROM THE TURNPIKE

CORRIDOR...YIELDING THE POSSIBILITY OF SIX OR SO INCHES IN A

SWATH FROM ROUGHLY COLUMBIANA COUNTY OHIO TO WESTMORELAND/INDIANA

COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA. WHILE CONFIDENCE OF THIS LOCATION IS NOT

QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME...IT IS

FULLY EXPECTED THAT ONE WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEAR

FUTURE...PARTICULARLY FOR THE RIDGES...WHERE ADDITIONAL COOLING

AND SOME UPSLOPE ASCENT WILL ACCENTUATE ACCUMULATIONS. ALL IN

ALL...A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON SNOW SEEMS QUITE LIKELY

ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IN PARTICULAR ON SUNDAY NIGHT. FRIES

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compared to CTP...

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...FIRST HALF OF EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FOCUS ON NEXT STORM SYSTEMMOVING TOWARDS CWA FROM THE WEST. COMPLICATED SURFACE PATTERN WITHLOW MOVING INTO OHIO VALLEY AND COASTAL REDEVLOPMENT. TEMPPROFILES VERY COLD AND PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. TIMING OF THISSYSTEM BRINGS WINTRY PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION LATE SUN AFTERNOONTHROUGH MONDAY..BUT HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS AND WHERE STILL UNCERTAINGIVEN THE COMPLEX PATTERN. LOOKING AT LATEST GEFS AND SREFGUIDANCE SHOWS IMPRESSIVE QPF TOTALS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THECWA AND THAT IS WHERE THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW CURRENTLY IS.FOR SE CORNER USED THE LOWEST RATIOS /GENERALLY AROUND 8:1/ GIVENTEMPERATURE...LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE. MOUNTAINSWILL SEE FLUFFIER SNOW /12:1/. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLIKELY AREA FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOW WILL BE IN THE SW QUARTER OFTHE CWA WITH A WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT FOR THE REST OF THECWA. AFTER THIS REGION STAYS IN BASE OF TROF WITH NW FLOW SNOWSHOWERS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING FOR MOST OF THEWORK WEEK.
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Just from a quick look at the COOP data, probably 1970.  10.2" 3/13/70, 11.1" 3/29-4/1/70.

Nice work! That makes sense because Easter fell on 3/29 in 1970. So my recollection of the 20" was correct, but it may have been from 2 big storms in March. Could have remained cold after the first one so my memory of the size of the Easter storm could have been from how much was on the ground from both storms prior to the flash melt following Easter. Both were pretty impressive snowfalls for March.

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State College is "iffy" in their discussion this morning. 

 

Miller B's in late March are almost never a good thing for big snows. Climatology is screaming that the NAM is out of its mind, and so are most of the global models. SREF/NAM shows big snows as it takes the secondary low from the Delmarva up the coast of NJ which puts the deform band over SC/SE PA. The differences I see that are causing the differences is due to the H5 orientation of the trough...seems that the GFS/Euro are flatter with the shortwave, and so the secondary development is farther east, sparing most of us of the heavy precip.

 

Keep in mind, it's late March...the sun-angle is the same as the middle of September. Unless those omega values (vertical velocities) are high, there won't be any sticking during the day. It's prudent, at this juncture, to assume a widespread advisory event is possible/likely, with the potential of seeing warning criteria if the secondary develops closer to the coast. 

 

Another wild card, is the easterly flow. It burned many mets/forecasters in early March, including myself, due to the efficient transfer of milder ocean air inland. This storm has that sort of feel as well, but with the addition of a primary/secondary "handoff", which is even more cause for a bust potential.

 

Bottom line: Things have to come together perfectly (as usual) for this to be a warning level storm. I would expect 2-4" for many, with 3-6 in SC PA and 6-10 in the highlands of WV/MD/and west-central PA.

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State College is "iffy" in their discussion this morning. 

 

Miller B's in late March are almost never a good thing for big snows. Climatology is screaming that the NAM is out of its mind, and so are most of the global models. SREF/NAM shows big snows as it takes the secondary low from the Delmarva up the coast of NJ which puts the deform band over SC/SE PA. The differences I see that are causing the differences is due to the H5 orientation of the trough...seems that the GFS/Euro are flatter with the shortwave, and so the secondary development is farther east, sparing most of us of the heavy precip.

 

Keep in mind, it's late March...the sun-angle is the same as the middle of September. Unless those omega values (vertical velocities) are high, there won't be any sticking during the day. It's prudent, at this juncture, to assume a widespread advisory event is possible/likely, with the potential of seeing warning criteria if the secondary develops closer to the coast. 

 

Another wild card, is the easterly flow. It burned many mets/forecasters in early March, including myself, due to the efficient transfer of milder ocean air inland. This storm has that sort of feel as well, but with the addition of a primary/secondary "handoff", which is even more cause for a bust potential.

 

Bottom line: Things have to come together perfectly (as usual) for this to be a warning level storm. I would expect 2-4" for many, with 3-6 in SC PA and 6-10 in the highlands of WV/MD/and west-central PA.

Thanks for sharing your insight. Expectations back in check. Seems like 2" - 4" would be a reasonable call for Lanc. Co. with the possibility to go up or down from there.

 

FWIW today or tomorrow will take MBY temps to below normal for the year with March a certainty to be the second month in a row with below normal temps.

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What's amazing about the SREFS, is how robust even the lowest members are. Here's a look at the SREF plumes for snowfall at LNS:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130323&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LNS&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=39.9052624114706&mLON=-76.7344251953125&mTYP=roadmap

Lowest member is just under 4" with the highest member just over 20" and a mean around 10". SREF's have performed POORLY this winter, so take it with a grain of salt, but it's amazing to see such high values in even the lowest members...

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What's amazing about the SREFS, is how robust even the lowest members are. Here's a look at the SREF plumes for snowfall at LNS:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130323&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LNS&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=39.9052624114706&mLON=-76.7344251953125&mTYP=roadmap

Lowest member is just under 4" with the highest member just over 20" and a mean around 10". SREF's have performed POORLY this winter, so take it with a grain of salt, but it's amazing to see such high values in even the lowest members...

Thanks alot! I've settled down into a 2"-4" mindset and you post this. :lmao:

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State College is "iffy" in their discussion this morning. 

 

Miller B's in late March are almost never a good thing for big snows. Climatology is screaming that the NAM is out of its mind, and so are most of the global models. SREF/NAM shows big snows as it takes the secondary low from the Delmarva up the coast of NJ which puts the deform band over SC/SE PA. The differences I see that are causing the differences is due to the H5 orientation of the trough...seems that the GFS/Euro are flatter with the shortwave, and so the secondary development is farther east, sparing most of us of the heavy precip.

 

Keep in mind, it's late March...the sun-angle is the same as the middle of September. Unless those omega values (vertical velocities) are high, there won't be any sticking during the day. It's prudent, at this juncture, to assume a widespread advisory event is possible/likely, with the potential of seeing warning criteria if the secondary develops closer to the coast. 

 

Another wild card, is the easterly flow. It burned many mets/forecasters in early March, including myself, due to the efficient transfer of milder ocean air inland. This storm has that sort of feel as well, but with the addition of a primary/secondary "handoff", which is even more cause for a bust potential.

 

Bottom line: Things have to come together perfectly (as usual) for this to be a warning level storm. I would expect 2-4" for many, with 3-6 in SC PA and 6-10 in the highlands of WV/MD/and west-central PA.

 

A very good trend for us in UNV on the Euro was having more qpf at night. 

 

I like to be neutral and show the wide range of possibilities. WIDE range via all of the models. A 2-4" mindset is a solid place to be right now if you live in Ephrata!

That's a great call. 

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