EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Talk about a temp drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Haha 76ºF was the high here on this date last year. What a monumental difference between this March and last March. I'm not going to get too carried away with accums with this complex setup. Obviously the north central looks to see the best snowfall and thus possible warning totals. The central and south counties in the ridge and valley region (as well as the Laurels) I think are still looking at advisory type amounts before mixing. This is like the 3rd or 4th storm i've seen this winter where the high res NAM snow total map on ewall for instance having a 12+ snowbomb on it's snowfall maps on especially the ridges of even Centre and Blair counties and widespread warning totals. It is certainly a borderline scenario though where if it ends up slightly colder and the column maintains a snow profile for more of the storm that we could see warning snows in places like UNV or AOO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 12Z NAM is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 12Z NAM is huge. I wouldn't say huge, but certainly even another step up from the 06z NAM. Which was great in and of itself! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I wouldn't say huge, but certainly even another step up from the 06z NAM. Which was great in and of itself! No it's huge. lol Huge at this point is anything over 4". It is Mid-March. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Through 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 haven't checked the NAM profiles, but I've found a good rule of thumb is to take it's qpf output and knock ~40% off right away, it's ALWAYS overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 This run is plain cold. Still below freezing at surface From State College N and E through 1 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Looks like we are having sleet and graupel here in York. Coating the ground right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Check that. Just went outside and it is snow. Just tiny, compact flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Knock what off? I'm just getting excited for the upcoming rain event. I mean, you said it yourself, "these things are a pipedream", right? I think you are the only one smoking the pipe. First off, it's not going to be rain for everyone, secondly everyone will start at wintry precip, and third even the rain part is not a "lot" of rain. It's like .25-.5" at most. Stop trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 We stay below freezing at surface for quite awhile. As for NAM qpf output, don't think it is overdone it is actually close to a lot of the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 hpc maps 4" / 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 hpc maps 4" / 8" WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 WPC just weather prediction center now? when did that change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 just weather prediction center now? when did that change? To better reflect the diversity of our products and services, we have changed our name to the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) and introduced a new web address,www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. For more details, please read NOAA's announcement. Read WPC's Strategic Plan, which details WPC's 5-year plans for supporting the NWS goal of building a Weather-Ready Nation. Looks like March 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 GFS is warmest model still. What is the deal with precip diminishing as it goes a bit northeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 HI Res models probably locking in the cold air better. GFS still having CAD issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Harrisburg area will need the early morning start and it be heavy... otherwise it will be similar to most other non early morning storms here this winter... not much of anything... I still have this feeling there will be more p-type issues with this than many are thinking with the strong south/southwesterly flow aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 GFS is warmest model still. What is the deal with precip diminishing as it goes a bit northeast? It's the GFS... Storm is inside of 24-30 hrs. More NAM/RGEM/RAP time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Harrisburg area will need the early morning start and it be heavy... otherwise it will be similar to most other non early morning storms here this winter... not much of anything... I still have this feeling there will be more p-type issues with this than many are thinking with the strong south/southwesterly flow aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 PSU campus weather service just called for all rain tomorrow with a few flakes mixing in late Gonna be some surprised people on campus tomorrow... most people don't even know there's a Winter Storm Watch, they're still complaining about the 3" yesterday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 PSU campus weather service just called for all rain tomorrow with a few flakes mixing in late Gonna be some surprised people on campus tomorrow... most people don't even know there's a Winter Storm Watch, they're still complaining about the 3" yesterday! lol wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I feel like CTP's cautious approach for central areas is pretty prudent with a late season storm like this. They just about nailed it yesterday for this area at least (if a little too conservative for State College area). Yesterday showed that snow doesn't have a problem accumulating in mid March here with half decent rates, so that's making me a little more optimistic though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Harrisburg area will need the early morning start and it be heavy... otherwise it will be similar to most other non early morning storms here this winter... not much of anything... I still have this feeling there will be more p-type issues with this than many are thinking with the strong south/southwesterly flow aloft this is what I am talking about... grid point closest to state college for 2 and 5 pm tomorrow: http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2013031712_F30_41.0000N_78.0000W.png http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2013031712_F33_41.0000N_78.0000W.png grid point between harrisburg and york same time period: http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2013031712_F30_40.0000N_77.0000W.png http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2013031712_F33_40.0000N_77.0000W.png edit: adding 18 and 21z 4 panel NAM map to show how it looks great at 850 and surface... but to take caution http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/f30.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/f33.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 this is what I am talking about... grid point closest to state college for 2 and 5 pm tomorrow: http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2013031712_F30_41.0000N_78.0000W.png http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2013031712_F33_41.0000N_78.0000W.png grid point between harrisburg and york same time period: http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2013031712_F30_40.0000N_77.0000W.png http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2013031712_F33_40.0000N_77.0000W.png edit: adding 18 and 21z 4 panel NAM map to show how it looks great at 850 and surface... but to take caution http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/f30.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/f33.gif Rides the 0 line. No issues really. With the rates the NAM has that would be snow, then sleet and freezing rain toward the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 HBG will be lucky to see .5" of snow. Non-event here but the zr is always worrisome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Final Call Text Version JST: 5-7" + ice AOO: 6-8" + ice UNV: 5-7" + ice IPT: 3-6" MDT: 2-4" Clearfild 5-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 First Guess: MDT: 1 to 2 IPT: 1 to 3 UNV: 3 to 5 AOO: 3 to 5 LNS: 1 inch JST: 3 to 5 AVP: 1 to 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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