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Central PA - second half of March 2013


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I love winter and love snow but being a superintendent of a golf course I'm ready for spring. I have many projects to complete before summer. I checked my records and found that we are 16 degrees colder so far this year compared to last for avg high temps in march

speaking of avg temps... I was looking at data for Harrisburg for last 50 years... March 2012 was warmest for average temperature at 50.7 degrees... as of today 2013 is at 38.1 degrees... only 5 years were colder over last 50 and those being March 1984, 1993, 1970, 1965, 1996... three other years equaled 38.1 for the month and those were 2005, 2001, and 1994

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You could be right about both. 

 

I seem to recall a 20" snowfall on Easter back in the late '60s at UNV. It was gone in 2 days. Although my recollection could be off on both amount and date. It was, after all, the 60's and I was attending PSU.

Heard about that as well. Also heard about a snow sometime in the 80s during graduation week. People showed up from out of town in short sleeved shirts and sun dresses and were miserable. 

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Feeling more confident in this upcoming storm at seeing some sort of widespread accumulating snowfall across the Commonwealth. However, this storm isn't a powerhouse, and won't be generating insane QPF amounts, so the snow amounts we do see will likely be on the lighter (nuisance) side of things. With regards to the backside lake-enhanced snow, I can't speak for that since it's typically a wild card, but it'll likely be the typical places seeing the LE snows on the backside of the system.

 

Here's what this storm has going for it (if you're a snow-lover):

 

- Cold 850 temps...In fact, the 850's get colder throughout the progression of the storm as upper-level heights fall on the backside of the system. 

- Night arrival...Looks like it could start as early as late Sunday night and overspread all of the folks in this forum by daybreak.

- Won't have to worry about dynamically-driven change to snow...Due to the cold air in place, the nighttime arrival, and heights crashing, looks like it'll start as snow for everyone, and stay as snow until around midday before a changeover occurs for southern locations.

 

And now for the negatives (again, if you're a snow-lover):

 

- Not a powerful storm...won't be generating massive QPF amounts

- Since the system will not be undergoing rapid cyclogenesis, expect meso banding to be at a minimum. More like a widespread steady snow. Could see some banding farther east once the low exits the coast and gets going.

- H5 trough not negatively tilted when it moves overhead. 

 

If I had to make calls right now, I would say a widespread 1-4" with 3-6" lollipops in the I-99 corridor and parts of the western SQV. Looks like non-accumulating snows by midday in the Lower SQV (on paved surfaces due to surface temps going above freezing despite -6c 850's) before it gets out of the region by the evening. Again, that's if I had to make a call right now.

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You could be right about both. 

 

I seem to recall a 20" snowfall on Easter back in the late '60s at UNV. It was gone in 2 days. Although my recollection could be off on both amount and date. It was, after all, the 60's and I was attending PSU.

Not sure if this is the same storm.

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Not sure if this is the same storm.

No... I was in school so it had to be sometime between 1966 and 1970. Easy to recall the event because a buddy of mine had his girlfriend visiting from Florida and she'd never seen snow before. So that was quite a surprise for her (and us), especially considering the amount.

 

I don't know how widespread that storm was since I wasn't interested in much of anything beyond my immediate surroundings at that age.

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From what I can tell the NAM & GFS is pretty much in agreement with TQPF.

 

CMC looks like it gives south Pa. a pretty good hit.

 

Now is the Euro going to come more north on this run?

 

precip wise yes... inland low stronger at surface at 72hr before transferring to coastal which is stronger and closer to coast at 78hr... closer to coast would have to watch to make sure easterly flow doesnt pull in warmer air for the southeast areas similar to the March 6 event though I don't think this will be that likely for the majority of us

 

 

edit: pretty nice hit for BWI if they can stay cold enough for snow up to at least Lancaster... text data still coming in

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I'll let Jamie or someone else post the lines of text data since it does not post right for me but here are a few totals from the peak period of the storm

 

BWI - .12", .44", .54" = ~1.10"

LNS - .27", .31", .08" = ~.66"

THV - .26", .23" = ~.49"

MDT - .23", .19" = ~.42"

IPT - .17", .07" = ~.24"

UNV - .08", .22", .09" = ~.39"

AOO - .18", .16", .10" = ~.44"

JST - .22", .15", .08" = ~.45"

FIG - .12", .20", .07" = ~.39"

 

since those are 6 hour totals, clearly not a long duration heavy by any means for UNV, IPT, AOO, JST, FIG and even MDT, THV are pushing it... but def better than some previous runs

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I'll let Jamie or someone else post the lines of text data since it does not post right for me but here are a few totals from the peak period of the storm

 

BWI - .12", .44", .54" = ~1.10"

LNS - .27", .31", .08" = ~.66"

THV - .26", .23" = ~.49"

MDT - .23", .19" = ~.42"

IPT - .17", .07" = ~.24"

UNV - .08", .22", .09" = ~.39"

AOO - .18", .16", .10" = ~.44"

JST - .22", .15", .08" = ~.45"

FIG - .12", .20", .07" = ~.39"

 

since those are 6 hour totals, clearly not a long duration heavy by any means for UNV, IPT, AOO, JST, FIG and even MDT, THV are pushing it... but def better than some previous runs

 

 

looks like 2"-4" for most.

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No... I was in school so it had to be sometime between 1966 and 1970. Easy to recall the event because a buddy of mine had his girlfriend visiting from Florida and she'd never seen snow before. So that was quite a surprise for her (and us), especially considering the amount.

 

I don't know how widespread that storm was since I wasn't interested in much of anything beyond my immediate surroundings at that age.

Just from a quick look at the COOP data, probably 1970.  10.2" 3/13/70, 11.1" 3/29-4/1/70.

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