sauss06 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 From the philly thread ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 From the philly thread ....... GGEM needs to stop hanging out with the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 21, 2013 Author Share Posted March 21, 2013 ^ The GGEM's actually now up to #2 at day 5. That upgrade's doing wonders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Yeah I saw that too about a weak storm killing this for anyone. Ggem even with upgrade really tends to be over-amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Looks good anyhow. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Found this post interesting. That whole thread is a good read. According to top500.org, as of last october, here's how it ranked... "CMC" NWS - main model computer: #369 NWS - research side : #138 CMC - #90 Korean Weather Agency: #55 ECMWF: #35 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39325-major-upgrade-coming-to-the-canadian-global-model/?p=2121061 Edit: NWS forcast discussion THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERNDOES FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND AMILLER TYPE-B SCENARIO AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS TOTHE EAST. BUT...THE DEVIL REMAINS IN THE DETAILS. SO...EYES ARECENTERED ON PERHAPS ANOTHER LATE WINTER/EARLY SPRING STORM FOR PAFROM PERHAPS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOST MDLS AND ENSEMBLEMEMBERS DO BRING SOME PRECIP INTO AT LEAST SRN HALF OF PA FROMTHIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE BIG TROUBLES REMAIN TIMING...NORTHWARDEXTENT OF PRECIP DUE TO TIMING OF LOW TRANSFER...AND OF COURSETEMPS AND P-TYPES DURING THE PRECIP. IN OTHER WORDS...EVERYTHINGIS STILL UNCERTAIN. DID HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MAKE POPS AROUND50 PCT IN THE S FOR TWO PERIODS...BUT IT IS STILL A DAY 5-6/POTENTIAL/ STORM. PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE PROGS TO WAGGLE ALLDIFFERENT DIRECTIONS FOR MANY DAYS.http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 From the philly thread ....... That will get my snow blower out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Guessing from experience this thing trends south then bumps north a bit late...before a slight tick south right before verification time. Paweather you are in a good spot to work out the snowblower! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 The 12z NAM looks like it is creating a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dvdmgsr Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 3/4" of fluffy lake-effect snow on the car that brushes easily away, 19 degrees, cold wind. Spring..... Departure from temperature norms, Mar 12-23, 2012 at KUNV: 16, 22, 22, 24, 23, 25, 26, 24, 20, 19, 25, 25 For Mar 12-20, 2013: 2, -4, -6, 1, -7, -7, -8, -2, -7 I guess this is payback. I suppose it could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 12z NAM looks too good to be true for the area. Guessing it probably is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 It's the nam. Actual precip will be half of what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 GFS is a nice hit for S CPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Good start, but in spring storms you want to have heavier rates than .1 to .25 in a 6 hr panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Flizzard in southern York county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Good start, but in spring storms you want to have heavier rates than .1 to .25 in a 6 hr panel. Not if it's modeled to fall overnight with temps below freezing. At night it doesn't matter if it's March 25 or January 25. During the day, yes. GFS has .33 falling here at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Flurries in Harrisburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Red taggers saying disregard cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteo Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Weather World had their monthly climate watch segment last night through april 10th.....said look for a couple more snow chances even into april. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Red taggers saying disregard cmc. Yeah, makes sense. it is an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Weather World had their monthly climate watch segment last night through april 10th.....said look for a couple more snow chances even into april. Euro Weeklies apparently had cold temps all the way through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Spring canceled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Spring canceled Snowcover on the beach at Rehobeth on webcam on second day of spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Snowcover on the beach at Rehobeth on webcam on second day of spring Seriously... It's been snowing across much of western Long Island all day. And actually enough to coat colder surfaces during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Mid/upper 20s during the day in late March is pretty rough with the wind. Gonna be a big negative departure today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWeatherAdventure Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Mid/upper 20s during the day in late March is pretty rough with the wind. Gonna be a big negative departure today Try into next week...and with this next potential system on Monday, could be dealing with a new snowpack as well :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I feel kinda silly tracking these model runs, it looks exactly the same as the earlier blocking storm. South of Harrisburg, you have a shot, just hope for good precip rates or nighttime snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Perfect bracket so far!!! UNLV trying to ruin that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 NAM is a big hit but its the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 NAM is a big hit but its the NAM lol at its finest near 84 hours... lol http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamsnow_NE084.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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