JamieOber Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Some of these types of storms that drive overrunning into an area of confluence can be long-lasting, take PDII in 2003 for example. That one lasted 24 hours or more. I'm fairly confident it makes it far enough north to affect up to I-80 at least. That's a strong piece of energy driving this, and it'll try to run as far north as it can. Thanks...going to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Note the reactions in the comments...you say winter storm and the general public thinks a monster storm. Trust me, the general public has the IQ of a brain-damaged amoeba when it comes to weather, and you really can't put ideas in their head like this. A better headline would be "Spring on hold as winter-like pattern continues" Worst part is some seem to think that Pennlive is producing the forecast and therefore dont trust the weatherman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Euro is a bit better than 0Z I suppose...I don't have the maps so I am not sure if it did again what jmister talked about above....but here's the UNV/IPT/MDT trinity: UNV MON 06Z 25-MAR -1.7 -6.3 1007 84 99 0.02 540 534 MON 12Z 25-MAR -2.2 -7.9 1008 94 98 0.21 536 529 MON 18Z 25-MAR 2.5 -6.6 1008 61 96 0.06 538 531 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 0.4 -5.5 1011 79 93 0.02 539 530 MDT MON 06Z 25-MAR 1.1 -6.1 1007 73 99 0.02 542 536 MON 12Z 25-MAR -0.4 -7.4 1007 92 99 0.19 536 531 MON 18Z 25-MAR 4.3 -7.2 1007 57 94 0.06 537 531 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 1.0 -5.7 1010 76 96 0.01 539 531 IPT MON 12Z 25-MAR -2.5 -7.8 1010 92 97 0.10 536 529 MON 18Z 25-MAR 2.8 -6.1 1008 60 92 0.06 537 531 TUE 00Z 26-MAR -1.1 -5.2 1010 82 80 0.01 538 530 Do you have it for KLNS? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 one thing I noticed that is big difference between Euro and GFS 12z runs for us is that GFS has inland low stronger at the surface and into Ohio before developing coastal low late... which often does not help us out very much... while Euro has coastal low stronger at the surface as it arrives and develops it off of Virginia coast.... reason for this outcome is how each model handles the energy at 500mb/700mb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Lol...this is one of those ones I don't understand so I will just wait and see. Way too much original low...transfer...coastal low, confluence talk goes right over my head hahaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Worst part is some seem to think that Pennlive is producing the forecast and therefore dont trust the weatherman Yep Lol...this is one of those ones I don't understand so I will just wait and see. Way too much original low...transfer...coastal low, confluence talk goes right over my head hahaha. I don't get it either. Do you have it for KLNS? Thanks Here: MON 06Z 25-MAR 1.3 -6.0 1007 69 98 0.01 542 536 MON 12Z 25-MAR 0.2 -7.1 1007 91 100 0.18 537 531 MON 18Z 25-MAR 4.3 -7.4 1007 56 96 0.07 537 531 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 1.2 -5.6 1009 75 97 0.01 539 531 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Nice snow shower coming through now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Okay....have to share this with you all....my work friend asked me about early next week on our internal social media (Yammer)....he also told me about this: My great grandpa lived to be 99, and died in 2001, and I never forget him telling me about the great snowstorm of April 28, 1928. He was a brand new Penn State ag professor, and lived out toward Boalsburg on a small farm he and my great grandma just bought. He said close to 20 inches fell and some said that in the mountains up to our west 30 inches fell. It was quite a mess. All their flowers, fruit trees, and his early garden stuff like lettuce were destroyed. If you lived on a dirt road, like many did, you were in trouble as you couldn't get those old cars out even after it all melted as they became muddy messes. Campus looked like a tornado had hit as many trees had started to leaf out and were crushed. Some roofs caved in on buildings. Just about every telephone, telegraph, and electric wire was down in the area and it took months to repair. Hope we don't have another one of those. I also found this a bit ago and wanted to share: http://cms.met.psu.edu/sref/severe/2012/23Apr2012.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Okay....have to share this with you all....my work friend asked me about early next week on our internal social media (Yammer)....he also told me about this: My great grandpa lived to be 99, and died in 2001, and I never forget him telling me about the great snowstorm of April 28, 1928. He was a brand new Penn State ag professor, and lived out toward Boalsburg on a small farm he and my great grandma just bought. He said close to 20 inches fell and some said that in the mountains up to our west 30 inches fell. It was quite a mess. All their flowers, fruit trees, and his early garden stuff like lettuce were destroyed. If you lived on a dirt road, like many did, you were in trouble as you couldn't get those old cars out even after it all melted as they became muddy messes. Campus looked like a tornado had hit as many trees had started to leaf out and were crushed. Some roofs caved in on buildings. Just about every telephone, telegraph, and electric wire was down in the area and it took months to repair. Hope we don't have another one of those. I also found this a bit ago and wanted to share: http://cms.met.psu.edu/sref/severe/2012/23Apr2012.pdf I came across this event about a week ago when I was trying to look around for local stuff (articles) on the '93 storm. I ended up finding a couple things on this event and the 1950 Appalachian storm instead.. both of which were amazing in their own right. I can't even imagine getting hit with that big of a snowstorm that time of the year. Just kind of shows that extreme events aren't as much of a "nowadays" thing as one would be led to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 PennLive has a story up from NWS about winter history at MDT. Thought it'd be worth posting here. Snowfall total so far this winter: 15.6”Normal snowfall: 30.6”Record for last 40 years: 77.6” in 1995-96, followed by 75.9” in 1993-94.Snowfall record since 1888: 81.3”, 1960-612011-12 snowfall: 11.3”, 9.7” of which fell in October Precipitation since Jan 1: 6.9” Average precipitation: 7.26”Coldest winter: 1904-5, average 23.1 degreesWarmest winter: 1931-32, 40.2 degreesHighest temperature this winter: 67 degrees, Dec. 4, 2012Record: 78 degrees, Feb. 27, 1997Coldest temperature this winter: 10 degrees Jan. 27Record: minus 22 degrees, Jan. 21, 1994Average temperature this winter: 34.4 degreesNormal average: 32.2 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 I came across this event about a week ago when I was trying to look around for local stuff (articles) on the '93 storm. I ended up finding a couple things on this event and the 1950 Appalachian storm instead.. both of which were amazing in their own right. I can't even imagine getting hit with that big of a snowstorm that time of the year. Just kind of shows that extreme events aren't as much of a "nowadays" thing as one would be led to believe. I just got done talking to him in person. He said he was told the snow fell in flakes that were the size of tennis balls for a few hours at one point. He also said there were hardly any rabbits that hunting season and fewer squirrels. Get this - he said there were DRIFTS! I can't imagine that. Also, to make matters worse, telephone poles were basically any old tree cut down and the branches removed so most of them snapped. They had to basically redo the entire system up here. Another link about it: http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/056/mwr-056-06-0226.pdf PennLive has a story up from NWS about winter history at MDT. Thought it'd be worth posting here. Snowfall total so far this winter: 15.6” Normal snowfall: 30.6” Record for last 40 years: 77.6” in 1995-96, followed by 75.9” in 1993-94. Snowfall record since 1888: 81.3”, 1960-61 2011-12 snowfall: 11.3”, 9.7” of which fell in October Precipitation since Jan 1: 6.9” Average precipitation: 7.26” Coldest winter: 1904-5, average 23.1 degrees Warmest winter: 1931-32, 40.2 degrees Highest temperature this winter: 67 degrees, Dec. 4, 2012 Record: 78 degrees, Feb. 27, 1997 Coldest temperature this winter: 10 degrees Jan. 27 Record: minus 22 degrees, Jan. 21, 1994 Average temperature this winter: 34.4 degrees Normal average: 32.2 degrees My dad always talked about 60-61 being so rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 I am simply amazed this pattern we are in..threat after threat on GFS. I have a feeling Sunday/Monday will be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 20, 2013 Author Share Posted March 20, 2013 Models to the southeast but start trending north...uhh, haven't we played and LOST this game MANY times before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't the confluence way way worse with the other storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 18z gfs is bizarre and not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 18z gfs is bizarre and not good. What is "not good" is the fact that it's almost april. Any frozen precip we get at this point is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ImageFourPanel.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=200_wnd_ht%7C500_vort_ht%7C1000_500_thick%7C850_temp_ht&cycle=18&fhr=108 this is really good, although it is the 18z GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Easy, I'm not complaining, I am telling those without access it backed off. You're right, it is April and I'm sure most of us would be fine if it didn't pan out with other outdoor activities to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Easy, I'm not complaining, I am telling those without access it backed off. You're right, it is April and I'm sure most of us would be fine if it didn't pan out with other outdoor activities to do. Everyone has access to the models. Just one run, and who knows what happens next. As long as it's cold might as well snow. Still a ways to go before this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 0z GFS looks very similar to early month storm. Transfers energy to coastal which moves ENE. Okay precip for southern counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ImageFourPanel.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=200_wnd_ht%7C500_vort_ht%7C1000_500_thick%7C850_temp_ht&cycle=00&fhr=102 great run SC PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Can't believe more snow might be on the way... lol. GGEM dumps like 5-10" GFS 3-6" I kinda want snow but, still am ready for 70 degrees. Guess it will be cold either way so bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Literally from INT-Hour 384 GFS does not get us above 0 at 850mbs. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 This is depressing. The only day it looks good to practice outside is maybe Saturday when we get above 45....making up our snow out Monday lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Hearing from some red-taggers that confluence will not let up enough for this to come north, very similar to March 7th and 8th event. However, it looks much colder than that situation....so Turnpike crew, it's your time to shine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Hearing from some red-taggers that confluence will not let up enough for this to come north, very similar to March 7th and 8th event. However, it looks much colder than that situation....so Turnpike crew, it's your time to shine! we are so due. havent got the snow blower out in 2 plus years....ready to sell it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 we are so due. havent got the snow blower out in 2 plus years....ready to sell it. I got mine out for the 12/29/12 event (4" fluff) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 This is depressing. The only day it looks good to practice outside is maybe Saturday when we get above 45....making up our snow out Monday lol. Then this if for you: http://www.theonion.com/articles/punxsutawney-phil-beheaded-for-inaccurate-predicti,31712/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 3/4" of fluffy lake-effect snow on the car that brushes easily away, 19 degrees, cold wind. Spring..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Hearing from some red-taggers that confluence will not let up enough for this to come north, very similar to March 7th and 8th event. However, it looks much colder than that situation....so Turnpike crew, it's your time to shine! I am seeing more talk of how the storm isn't going to be that intense so maybe no one gets a big storm. The only hope for warm temps on the GFS out 11-15 is the post-Easter storm to track to our northwest. I haven't seen anything on the Euro weeklies, I trust them more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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