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Central PA - second half of March 2013


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Dang, the next storm is already mentioned in this evenings HWO.

 

 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA1032 PM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013PAZ006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-210245-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-1032 PM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA..DAY ONE...TONIGHT.THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPIVALLEY SUNDAY...AND SPREAD A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION OR SNOWTOWARD THE REGION. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM IS STILLUNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE RECENT STORMINDICATES THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY LATE SUNDAYNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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Dang, the next storm is already mentioned in this evenings HWO.

 

 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA1032 PM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013PAZ006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-210245-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-1032 PM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA..DAY ONE...TONIGHT.THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPIVALLEY SUNDAY...AND SPREAD A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION OR SNOWTOWARD THE REGION. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM IS STILLUNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE RECENT STORMINDICATES THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY LATE SUNDAYNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 

They are getting a jump start on this one - lol

what your gut feeling on this potential storm?

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Happy birthday to me? (I turn 21 Monday lol)

 

Well your storm obs ought to be interesting if we have one haha. 

 

They are getting a jump start on this one - lol

what your gut feeling on this potential storm?

 

I def think we will have a sizeable late winter/early spring storm traverse the country with the track and ultimate PA impacts to be determined. With a very negative NAO I kind of disagree with how north the GFS has been creeping with this system. The 0z takes the low all the way to the lower lakes with some kind of an attempted secondary... kind of similar to our last storm. Of course the 12z Euro was on the other end of the spectrum this afternoon being south of PA. Don't have much other 0z things yet, darn daylight savings. Plenty of time yet. 

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I see the reason every day when I go home over Skytop - those are from windmill complexes. 

Thanks, Jamie. Had no idea they were even there. Nothing a little C4 couldn't fix.

 

Actually, if I go to a Tilt 2 they disappear. But KCCX Tilt 1 is at .5 kft and I'm at .45 so that's about perfect for my location. At least with SuperRes Reflectivity they're a bit less annoying.

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Thanks, Jamie. Had no idea they were even there. Nothing a little C4 couldn't fix.

 

Actually, if I go to a Tilt 2 they disappear. But KCCX Tilt 1 is at .5 kft and I'm at .45 so that's about perfect for my location. At least with SuperRes Reflectivity they're a bit less annoying.

Yeah, I wonder if they will ever try to fix it. 

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Does anyone know if those annoying radar glitches to the SW of State College are permanent or fixable? Or fixable, but likely permanent? :)  

 

 

I see the reason every day when I go home over Skytop - those are from windmill complexes. 

 Here:

 

  1. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/windfarm.htm
  2. http://cdn.intechopen.com/pdfs/35119/InTech-Doppler_weather_radars_and_wind_turbines.pdf 
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Yes, thanks for those links. It's unfortunate. After reading both, I'm inclined to go for the C4 solution as the only way to get rid of this. Haha... just kidding, NSA. Honest. 

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Yeah, Euro. The storm is further north but it does this skip thing right over us. 

 

? You must mean an estimated snowfall amount for the 00z EURO. There was not much precip with that run. Most of it was in the SW corner of the state due to the primary low, while the rest of the state only has 0.1-0.2" of precip while the energy transfers to the coast and out to sea.

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12z GFS is pretty... temps/thickness/heights for next Monday all look even better right now with this run than they were for Monday's event... about a half inch QPF for MDT, close to .75" for UNV, and a little less than UNV for AOO/IPT... currently a longer duration event that we just have not seen this winter... if it is going to end up another quick event hopefully it can pick up some more moisture...

 

the following week a pretty strong low pressure system heads for the northeast Monday/Tuesday... better not mess up opening day by moving in Monday afternoon with Pirates, Mets, Yankees, Nationals, and Reds all at home!! lol

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The trend this winter for the media to be the first one out of the gate and blast headlines all over the place when a winter storm might come in 5+ days is pretty unsettling. Whatever they have to do to sell papers and get ratings. 3 days before the 2/8 storm, our NBC station in NYC showed a RPM model run that had 18" of snow in Cherry Hill and 30" in Central Park. People freaked out and formed long gas lines again for what turned out to be pretty manageable for most of us. And Cherry Hill ended up with maybe 18 flurries. :lol:

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? You must mean an estimated snowfall amount for the 00z EURO. There was not much precip with that run. Most of it was in the SW corner of the state due to the primary low, while the rest of the state only has 0.1-0.2" of precip while the energy transfers to the coast and out to sea.

I also have to say ? to this also....the 12Z was well south of PA....the 0Z was north with the low, even if it transferred. 

 

Yea jmister I had been confused as well...

North, as in not going out to sea well south of PA...The low is a crappy redeveloper on the 0Z Euro that moves just to our south, the 12Z yesterday went out to sea over about NC or so. You know...North Carolina...which despite the North in the name is south of Pennsylvania. 

 

Understand? That's today's geography lesson. :D

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The trend this winter for the media to be the first one out of the gate and blast headlines all over the place when a winter storm might come in 5+ days is pretty unsettling. Whatever they have to do to sell papers and get ratings. 3 days before the 2/8 storm, our NBC station in NYC showed a RPM model run that had 18" of snow in Cherry Hill and 30" in Central Park. People freaked out and formed long gas lines again for what turned out to be pretty manageable for most of us. And Cherry Hill ended up with maybe 18 flurries. :lol:

Note the reactions in the comments...you say winter storm and the general public thinks a monster storm. Trust me, the general public has the IQ of a brain-damaged amoeba when it comes to weather, and you really can't put ideas in their head like this. A better headline would be "Spring on hold as winter-like pattern continues"

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12z GFS is pretty... temps/thickness/heights for next Monday all look even better right now with this run than they were for Monday's event... about a half inch QPF for MDT, close to .75" for UNV, and a little less than UNV for AOO/IPT... currently a longer duration event that we just have not seen this winter... if it is going to end up another quick event hopefully it can pick up some more moisture...

 

the following week a pretty strong low pressure system heads for the northeast Monday/Tuesday... better not mess up opening day by moving in Monday afternoon with Pirates, Mets, Yankees, Nationals, and Reds all at home!! lol

As wmsptwx has mentioned before, we haven't seen a storm last this long....GFS for UNV:

 

 

SUN 18Z 24-MAR  -2.5    -5.8    1003      92      99    0.20     542     539    MON 00Z 25-MAR  -2.3    -4.3    1000      97      98    0.30     535     536    MON 06Z 25-MAR  -2.2    -4.0     998      99      98    0.22     529     531    MON 12Z 25-MAR  -1.4    -6.3     998      98      98    0.13     526     528    MON 18Z 25-MAR   0.7    -6.4    1001      99      97    0.10     528     527    TUE 00Z 26-MAR  -0.4    -5.5    1007      99      94    0.06     533     527 

So, sort of skeptical. 

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As wmsptwx has mentioned before, we haven't seen a storm last this long....GFS for UNV:

 

 

SUN 18Z 24-MAR  -2.5    -5.8    1003      92      99    0.20     542     539    MON 00Z 25-MAR  -2.3    -4.3    1000      97      98    0.30     535     536    MON 06Z 25-MAR  -2.2    -4.0     998      99      98    0.22     529     531    MON 12Z 25-MAR  -1.4    -6.3     998      98      98    0.13     526     528    MON 18Z 25-MAR   0.7    -6.4    1001      99      97    0.10     528     527    TUE 00Z 26-MAR  -0.4    -5.5    1007      99      94    0.06     533     527 

So, sort of skeptical. 

Some of these types of storms that drive overrunning into an area of confluence can be long-lasting, take PDII in 2003 for example. That one lasted 24 hours or more. I'm fairly confident it makes it far enough north to affect up to I-80 at least. That's a strong piece of energy driving this, and it'll try to run as far north as it can.

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Euro is a bit better than 0Z I suppose...I don't have the maps so I am not sure if it did again what jmister talked about above....but here's the UNV/IPT/MDT trinity:

 

UNV

 

MON 06Z 25-MAR  -1.7    -6.3    1007      84      99    0.02     540     534    MON 12Z 25-MAR  -2.2    -7.9    1008      94      98    0.21     536     529    MON 18Z 25-MAR   2.5    -6.6    1008      61      96    0.06     538     531    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   0.4    -5.5    1011      79      93    0.02     539     530  

 

MDT

 

 

MON 06Z 25-MAR   1.1    -6.1    1007      73      99    0.02     542     536    MON 12Z 25-MAR  -0.4    -7.4    1007      92      99    0.19     536     531    MON 18Z 25-MAR   4.3    -7.2    1007      57      94    0.06     537     531    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   1.0    -5.7    1010      76      96    0.01     539     531

 

IPT

 

 

MON 12Z 25-MAR  -2.5    -7.8    1010      92      97    0.10     536     529    MON 18Z 25-MAR   2.8    -6.1    1008      60      92    0.06     537     531    TUE 00Z 26-MAR  -1.1    -5.2    1010      82      80    0.01     538     530 
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