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Central PA - second half of March 2013


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Any very preliminary thoughts for next week?

 

Models are starting to latch onto a system roughly around next Monday. Given the blocking, looks like a case of seeing how far north we can get this possible storm to come. Most of the majors like the Euro/GGEM are far enough south to not involve PA too much currently..or at all really. The GFS on the other hand is much further north and does affect PA and it would be snow. The 12z run mainly targeted southern PA while the 18z run straight up bombed all of PA. It'll be something to watch as the week wears on, there will definitely be cold air available if we have a storm to work with. 

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Out for one last measurement. 3.3" pretty happy how we have added to the snow total this last week.

Good to see some of the southern gang getting some snow.

2001kx thought you would have done a lot better.

Edit: Mag thank you for the update for this next storm!! Always like reading your thoughts on what could happen.

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NYC overperformed again, I think they got more snow than us. :axe: How the f**k do they get so lucky??

If it makes you feel any better, I had the pleasure of having an inch or so on the ground, driving snow that on a dime turned to sleet and then rain in 15 minutes. Now what's left of what I got is melting away fast and by morning I'm guaranteed to just have brown grass (the grass and most of our trees on the immediate shore on Long Island where I am was killed by Sandy's storm surge and salt water killing the vegetation). 20 miles or so north and west of me had double/triple the snow I got. And the snow came at the worst time for me, since my train got stuck for 45 minutes on an "equipment failure" out of Manhattan back to my town as the snow started coming down at rush hour. Not the greatest of commutes for me. At least you guys don't have to worry about a driving rain induced melt-off and at least the freezing rain and sleet weren't too big a deal like it was in many of my days up at PSU.

 

Trust me though, when the time comes that you guys get crushed in a mammoth blizzard and us on I-95 have to suffer through a drencher, I'll be the first one rooting it on. You guys deserve it after all this time.

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Out for one last measurement. 3.3" pretty happy how we have added to the snow total this last week.

Good to see some of the southern gang getting some snow.

2001kx thought you would have done a lot better.

Edit: Mag thank you for the update for this next storm!! Always like reading your thoughts on what could happen.

it is what it is...not a big deal.

we did good over the weekend so its a push :)

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Nah jm, of the posters in that sh*tstorm of a forum, you're one of the few I'd like to see get good snows; especially as you had a good bit of suffering yourself in your C PA days. The rest of those weenies who cry enough and post enough weenie maps so Mommy (Nature) will get them what they want can shove off. Seriously, them whining over forecasts back on the 8 February storm getting cut to "just" 8-12" was one of the most absurd, over-the-top things I've ever seen through being on EUSWX/AmWx for 5+ years.

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Nah jm, of the posters in that sh*tstorm of a forum, you're one of the few I'd like to see get good snows; especially as you had a good bit of suffering yourself in your C PA days. The rest of those weenies who cry enough and post enough weenie maps so Mommy (Nature) will get them what they want can shove off.

Arrggghh :axe:

 

One of the reasons I'm posting again here these days. Our posters tell each other to jump off bridges and we're golden like you've been saying (and we really are, in the late 1990s we had a stretch of under 20" winters). We have some good-great posters but we also have some who honestly would have been better off had their kindergarten teacher held them back a few times.

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Tonights Euro is much further north with the storm at the beginning of next week. Looks similar to the Mon 12z GFS getting some moderate snows into the southern half of PA. GGEM similar to Euro. 0z GFS still seems the furthest north of the bunch. Hell the NOGAPs (now the NAVGEM) had a big coastal storm and associated snowstorm for PA. All these models have a miller B evolution with this system. So a good strong signal for a storm, but you know the drill with confidence on hashing out the details the next several days.

Just for fun the Euro at 240 was lining up another coastal storm lol. At no point did it really warm up that much in those 240 hours. March might end up the most truly wintry month of the whole winter at this rate. Thurs/Fri morning still look very cold in the true central. Def teens for sure one or both nights.. an ideal radiational cooling night with some snowpack left might take temps into single numbers in spots.

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ended up with 2.6" as greatest depth before changing over to a light drizzle late last night that started to melt and compact things... rain guage melted had .53" liquid... now 18.9" on season with this being 3rd biggest daily total...

 

MDT reported 2.3" on .54" liquid... highest for them since late December making it 2nd highest daily total for season... Have also now dropped to -1.4 degrees below normal for the month

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Nah jm, of the posters in that sh*tstorm of a forum, you're one of the few I'd like to see get good snows; especially as you had a good bit of suffering yourself in your C PA days. The rest of those weenies who cry enough and post enough weenie maps so Mommy (Nature) will get them what they want can shove off. Seriously, them whining over forecasts back on the 8 February storm getting cut to "just" 8-12" was one of the most absurd, over-the-top things I've ever seen through being on EUSWX/AmWx for 5+ years.

 

Yeah, it's sort of creepy. 

 

Tonights Euro is much further north with the storm at the beginning of next week. Looks similar to the Mon 12z GFS getting some moderate snows into the southern half of PA. GGEM similar to Euro. 0z GFS still seems the furthest north of the bunch. Hell the NOGAPs (now the NAVGEM) had a big coastal storm and associated snowstorm for PA. All these models have a miller B evolution with this system. So a good strong signal for a storm, but you know the drill with confidence on hashing out the details the next several days.

Just for fun the Euro at 240 was lining up another coastal storm lol. At no point did it really warm up that much in those 240 hours. March might end up the most truly wintry month of the whole winter at this rate. Thurs/Fri morning still look very cold in the true central. Def teens for sure one or both nights.. an ideal radiational cooling night with some snowpack left might take temps into single numbers in spots.

No kidding, wonder how much snow UNV/AOO/IPT will end up with? 

 

Jm you are one of the best posters here. We refer to the guys saying 19 inches of snow is pedestrian as the idiots. That is the most single storm snow we have had in 50 years lol.

Agreed. Also agree with your earlier post about compact time with these storms this year.

 

The other thing that we've had is less sleet/ice than expected with storms. 

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Nah jm, of the posters in that sh*tstorm of a forum, you're one of the few I'd like to see get good snows; especially as you had a good bit of suffering yourself in your C PA days. The rest of those weenies who cry enough and post enough weenie maps so Mommy (Nature) will get them what they want can shove off. Seriously, them whining over forecasts back on the 8 February storm getting cut to "just" 8-12" was one of the most absurd, over-the-top things I've ever seen through being on EUSWX/AmWx for 5+ years.

:thumbsup:

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Jm you are one of the best posters here. We refer to the guys saying 19 inches of snow is pedestrian as the idiots. That is the most single storm snow we have had in 50 years lol.

Thanks guys. Central PA's time has to be coming again soon, and it hasn't been an awful winter for most this year. NYC got more snow than State College in 4 of the 5 years I lived there and we average here a little more than half of State College, so you guys are certainly overdue for a monster winter or two.

 

I wonder what the liquid equivalents for the snow/ice yesterday were? The snowgrowth was awful but there couldn't have been close to the 0.75-1" or more liquid that models printed out.

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Thanks guys. Central PA's time has to be coming again soon, and it hasn't been an awful winter for most this year. NYC got more snow than State College in 4 of the 5 years I lived there and we average here a little more than half of State College, so you guys are certainly overdue for a monster winter or two.

 

I wonder what the liquid equivalents for the snow/ice yesterday were? The snowgrowth was awful but there couldn't have been close to the 0.75-1" or more liquid that models printed out.

UNV is ahead of NYC this year. UNV hasn't included the official number from yesterday but it should put us about 6 or so below normal. Looking ahead, normal is certainly doable.

 

Edit: Last 10 years of snow previous to this year at NYC Central Park: 345.5

 

Last 10 years of snow previous to this year at UNV: 432.0

 

UNV has 20% more. Normally, UNV should get about 40% more. 

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The few inches of snowpack hung in there fairly well today (outside of the parts of the yard that see the direct sun all day) considering the sunny and breezy day... probably a testament to the moisture laden nature of yesterdays snowfall and bit of sleet/ice on top. I would imagine we were pretty close ratio-wise to that MDT melted total of 0.54 off of 2.3" of snow. Thats good for a horrendous 4.25:1 ratio... or not very much better than a ratio you'd have for a straight up sleet storm (3:1ish). 

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