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Central PA - second half of March 2013


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Liking that GFS snow map... can't believe it came around to the Euro that quick!  This one is really starting to look good for 3-5" MINIMUM I'd say.  6-9 or so still in the ballpark.  Can't hurt that the ground's already covered here... probably close to 3" today!

 

Looks like Monday should be good for our 2nd biggest event of the year at least.... :snowing:  

This looks like a classic Central PA CAD thumping. Back in 2005 there was a similar kind of event on 3/22 I believe that dumped upwards of half a foot on much of the region. I'd say ~6" is where I'd start.

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StormTotalSnow.png

 

Here's the new map,

 

The thing that strikes me is how CTP has the Laurels doing better than the AOO-UNV-IPT corridor. That seems to go against climatology. I can't ever remember scoring more snow in a CAD snow dump then AOO-UNV, without them doing just as well. It seems odd to me. I figured UNV would at least be 3-4 still. 

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StormTotalSnow.png

Here's the new map,

The thing that strikes me is how CTP has the Laurels doing better than the AOO-UNV-IPT corridor. That seems to go against climatology. I can't ever remember scoring more snow in a CAD snow dump then AOO-UNV, without them doing just as well. It seems odd to me. I figured UNV would at least be 3-4 still.

A bit better. That has to be totally model made though. Unless someone sneezed on the map while making it. Lol

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Eastern are they afraid to get burned....6z was best runs yet

 

Playing it safe i'd say. They have some watches up and if they need to pull the trigger on more or warnings I am sure they will. Been a rough winter for forecasting. Better to have to up totals then lower then right before or after a storm. 

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Eastern are they afraid to get burned....6z was best runs yet

 

Euro:

 

MDT

 

 

MON 18Z 18-MAR   0.6    -3.9    1026      66      80    0.07     560     540    TUE 00Z 19-MAR   0.6    -1.6    1019      95     100    0.16     559     544    TUE 06Z 19-MAR   2.4     4.1    1009      98     100    0.37     556     548    TUE 12Z 19-MAR   2.8     2.8    1005      98      86    0.31     550     546    TUE 18Z 19-MAR   7.7    -4.1    1006      49       8    0.01     537     532    WED 00Z 20-MAR   1.2    -8.3    1009      50      85    0.01     528     520 

 

UNV

 

 

MON 18Z 18-MAR  -1.9    -5.2    1024      72      85    0.07     558     540    TUE 00Z 19-MAR  -1.6    -3.0    1017      92     100    0.17     557     543    TUE 06Z 19-MAR   0.0     0.8    1009      97      99    0.42     553     546    TUE 12Z 19-MAR   1.6    -1.1    1006      95      40    0.19     546     541    TUE 18Z 19-MAR   2.8    -6.5    1007      68      17    0.03     532     527    WED 00Z 20-MAR  -4.5   -10.4    1011      67      91    0.01     527     518

 

IPT

 

 

ON 18Z 18-MAR  -1.8    -6.4    1026      58      99    0.03     558     537    TUE 00Z 19-MAR  -2.0    -4.6    1019      89      99    0.23     557     542    TUE 06Z 19-MAR  -0.5     0.1    1010      96     100    0.35     553     545    TUE 12Z 19-MAR   0.6     0.5    1005      98      75    0.27     547     543
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Yikes Euro warmer that might have something to do with it.

 

Euro wasn't exactly warmer it just delayed precip even more. Which by looking at current radar doesn't seem so likely. Kept 850 line south of me through about hr 49. Which by that time on other models there was decent precip. 

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