Snow_Miser Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 GGEM Meteograms for NYC have close to 20 mm of snow. Probably overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 GGEM Meteograms for NYC have close to 20 mm of snow. Probably overdone. Kinda strange that the GGEM has that much, considering its' warm bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Kinda strange that the GGEM has that much, considering its' warm bias. Yeah agree.. it's Regional Counterpart has close to 10 mm of snow for NYC on the meteograms which is a little more realistic, but still overdone IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 This is a map I made yesterday for the area. Thoughts? I thought that this map was a very solid call yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 This is a map I made yesterday for the area. Thoughts? I thought that this map was a very solid call yesterday. I don't see 1 to 3" in most of that swath. I'd say C to 1 at most and I think the 3 to 5" is too large and too far south. Also Philly is sitting at 40 right now so I highly doubt they see anything frozen let alone pick up a coating to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I don't see 1 to 3" in most of that swath. I'd say C to 1 at most and I think the 3 to 5" is too large and too far south I took a blend of most of the models. The GGEM gives NYC nearly 20 mm of liquid in the form of snow. The Euro is also on the colder side as well as the UKMET. A blend very much supports the 1-3 I have for those areas. The RGEM from today almost matches this map exactly as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 They have upgraded Sussex and the Poconos to a warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ319 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013NJZ001-PAZ054-055-191100-/O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-130319T1200Z//O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0006.130318T1919Z-130319T1200Z/SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG319 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS INEFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY.* SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH SLEET LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TUESDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET, AS WELL AS SOME ICE WILL LEAD TO TRAVEL BECOMING HAZARDOUS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON TREES COULD BREAK SOME WEAKER TREE LIMBS... RESULTING IN SOME POWER OUTAGES.* WINDS...EAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSOPOSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I took a blend of most of the models. The GGEM gives NYC nearly 20 mm of liquid in the form of snow. The Euro is also on the colder side as well as the UKMET. A blend very much supports the 1-3 I have for those areas. The RGEM from today almost matches this map exactly as well. Yeah I'm not saying you're wrong, I just don't think most areas will see that much once south and east of 287. With that said most temps are at or below 35 right now and after a chilly night with lows in the 20s what snow does fall won't have as much trouble sticking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 They have upgraded Sussex and the Poconos to a warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 319 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013 NJZ001-PAZ054-055-191100- /O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-130319T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0006.130318T1919Z-130319T1200Z/ SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG 319 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY. * SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. * TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH SLEET LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET, AS WELL AS SOME ICE WILL LEAD TO TRAVEL BECOMING HAZARDOUS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON TREES COULD BREAK SOME WEAKER TREE LIMBS... RESULTING IN SOME POWER OUTAGES. * WINDS...EAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && I'm really surprised SMQ isn't under an advisory right now. Even if one to two inches were to fall, it would make for some extremely treacherous driving conditions. My roads IMBY are completely brined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Yeah I'm not saying you're wrong, I just don't think most areas will see that much once south and east of 287. With that said most temps are at or below 35 right now and after a chilly night with lows in the 20s what snow does fall won't have as much trouble sticking Yeah, it should definitely be interesting to say the least. Garrett Bastardi reported 3.5" of snow from CCX (State College) a little over an hour ago. The precip should start moving into the area in a couple hours or so. Also of interest is that the 850 mb and 925 mb temperatures remain solidly cold, so when those reflectivities from C PA reach the region, I don't see why this wouldn't start off as snow for pretty much the entire region once the higher reflectivities move in. 925 temperatures: 850 mb temperatures: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The NAM's 18z run gave supporting evidence that it's running a bit too warm with thermal profiles, at least at 850 mb. The NAM depiction of the 850 mb temperature below, valid at 21z, or 4 pm. Compared to current 850 mb temperatures: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Yeah, it should definitely be interesting to say the least. Garrett Bastardi reported 3.5" of snow from CCX (State College) a little over an hour ago. The precip should start moving into the area in a couple hours or so. Also of interest is that the 850 mb and 925 mb temperatures remain solidly cold, so when those reflectivities from C PA reach the region, I don't see why this wouldn't start off as snow for pretty much the entire region once the higher reflectivities move in. 925 temperatures: 925 mb temperatures.png 850 mb temperatures: 850 mb temperatures.png Reports from State College are generally in the 2-3" range. The temperature profile you should pay most attention to is above 850mb, such as 750-800mb. The warmth in those layers likely runs out ahead of lower layers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 Already rain at TTN...not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Already rain at TTN...not looking good. rgem for 4pm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Relax folks, the radar is lighting up over northern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Already rain at TTN...not looking good.[/quote The precip will likely be rain/non snow for TTN until the heavier precip arrives from PA. Once the heavy precip moves in it will change over to snow. My friend in reading was getting light rain until the heavier precip moved in, and he changed to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The precip from PA is hauling *ss. Crossing into NJ now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The 18z NAM has the best lifting NW of NYC and warm nose at 800mb, early this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 30. light to mod snow, sticking to everything but the roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The 18z NAM has the best lifting NW of NYC and warm nose at 800mb, early this evening. Interestingly the hi-res NAM has increased snowfall accumulation amounts especially across Northern NJ. It looks like the high resolution models are trying to pick up on a period of cooling in the thermal profile once the moderate precipitation starts. I'm not sure I believe the 4-6" on the NAM for EWR-LGA corridor but I could see 2-4" in that area on non-paved surfaces. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_18z/snow60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Interestingly the hi-res NAM has increased snowfall accumulation amounts especially across Northern NJ. It looks like the high resolution models are trying to pick up on a period of cooling in the thermal profile once the moderate precipitation starts. I'm not sure I believe the 4-6" on the NAM for EWR-LGA corridor but I could see 2-4" in that area on non-paved surfaces. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_18z/snow60.gif If I get 4 inches here in good old Jersey City, I will be one happy camper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 New 18z RGEM ticked colder...up to 12mm of snow at LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Actually a whole lot colder over Northern NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 This is a map I made yesterday for the area. Thoughts? I thought that this map was a very solid call yesterday. This was a pretty good call IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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