MJO812 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Upton has snow with a slight chance of rain for today with a high of 35 for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Latest Rap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Latest Rap 4-6" of Snow at Westchester County by 10 PM tonight. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The 12z NAM ticked a bit slower with the warm air. The city changes over to rain between 21 and 00z. NW areas are snowing moderately. Then NW areas begin to changeover from SE to NW. By 06z everyone is over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 DP is down to 5 here...I'm in the far NE part of the region, but precip's going to have a hard time moving in before this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The 12z high res NAM has 0.00" of snow for NYC and Long Island through 05z. 4-6" of snow at KMMU. 2-4" for Sussex, 3-5" for Orange County, 1-4" for Weschester. Has the snow officially ending in NYC at 23z-00z and between 03-06z for NW areas. Northern Orange County stays snow the longest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The 12z high res NAM has 0.00" of snow for NYC and Long Island through 05z. 4-6" of snow at KMMU. 2-4" for Sussex, 3-5" for Orange County, 1-4" for Weschester. Has the snow officially ending in NYC at 23z-00z and between 03-06z for NW areas. Northern Orange County stays snow the longest. How much does it have just to the south of MMU into SMQ? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 It drops off south of KMMU. SMQ is in the 1-2" range. How much does it have just to the south of MMU into SMQ? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 New RGEM out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 New RGEM out yet? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Impressive for NYC north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 doesn't look good even on this overdone radar - time to start thinking about a much delayed start of the precip http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true&location=USDC0001 and the longer delayed means less frozen The NAM has been pretty consistent showing this to be mostly a nighttime event, with a secondary batch tomorrow morning after a break. I don't think much falls before 6pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Impressive for NYC north What a mess for inland areas. Moderate to heavy burst of snow, followed by a coating of ZR/IP followed by moderate to heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 GFS has it snowing in NYC until late tonight. It doesn't look like much accumulations though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 RGEM snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 check out this radar - that first patch is not going to reach the metro the next one is still out in western PA http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 The 12z NAM high res has this band in here in the next few hours, followed by a short break before the steady precip moves in after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Based off those snow maps, it looks like the RGEM gives SMQ close to 4 inches and MMU close to 6. Things will definitely be interesting for inland areas for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Pardon the newbie question.. but how can these forcast models say 4"-6" for Morristown when NWS is saying 1"-2" consistently since atleast yesterday evening? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/StormTotalSnowWebFcst.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Pardon the newbie question.. but how can these forcast models say 4"-6" for Morristown when NWS is saying 1"-2" consistently since atleast yesterday evening? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/StormTotalSnowWebFcst.png Because one is a computer model..the other is a real person Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Just a reminder. Personal attacks will not be tolerated and those derailing the thread will be 5 posted for a period of time. Also, please remember that there is a vendor discussion thread. Mr G or Sam Champion have nothing to do with the storm discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I have to say I think the South Shore sees zero accums once again. Filtered sunshine and a ESE wind in mid March... Already at 36 and rising. One of the more winners and losers winters we have had in a while. 2008ish. Not complaining just stating the facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I have to say I think the South Shore sees zero accums once again. Filtered sunshine and a ESE wind in mid March... Already at 36 and rising. One of the more winners and losers winters we have had in a while. 2008ish. Not complaining just stating the facts. I think we have "mood snow" much the same as on Saturday, maybe enough to yield a coating or so and then over to rain in a couple of hours. The RGEM looks like it's cutting back on what snow does fall from the city on east, and the NAM didn't look impressive at all. There's going to be a fairly sharp difference in conditions once you go north to White Plains or so. There it'll snow for a few hours and then go to prolonged sleet/ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The 12z Euro has everyone snowing steadily by 00z. Sussex, Western Passaic, Orange, Rockland and northern Weschester stay all frozen through 06z. Orange stays below freezing at the surface through 12z. About a 50 mile swath of ZR as the surface freezing line is lagging a bit behind the mid and upper level warming. Hour 30, the upper levels begin to crash as the system moves out. NW areas change back over to a wet snow? Pretty big hit for the NW burbs I think, without having a snowfall map to look at. QPF is 0.75"+ area wide through hr 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The 12z Euro has everyone snowing steadily by 00z. Sussex, Western Passaic, Orange, Rockland and northern Weschester stay all frozen through 06z. Orange stays below freezing at the surface through 12z. About a 50 mile swath of ZR as the surface freezing line is lagging a bit behind the mid and upper level warming. Hour 30, the upper levels begin to crash as the system moves out. NW areas change back over to a wet snow? Pretty big hit for the NW burbs I think, without having a snowfall map to look at. QPF is 0.75"+ area wide through hr 30. Looks like .40 - .50 for NYC with 850's below 0. Surface temps are in the mid 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Looks like .40 - .50 for NYC with 850's below 0. Surface temps are in the mid 30's. Yeah it's more wet than white for the coast. 2-4" type deal for the immediate NW burbs and a lot more once you get into the higher elevations of NW NJ and the Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Looks like .40 - .50 for NYC with 850's below 0. Surface temps are in the mid 30's. That sounds even colder than the 0z run. The euro does not want to back down from it's very cold solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 That sounds even colder than the 0z run. The euro does not want to back down from it's very cold solution. It does have the support of the RGEM FWIW. It looks slightly colder to me than the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 It's not very useful for this scenario but the 12z SPC WRF had a lot of precip for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 It does have the support of the RGEM FWIW. It looks slightly colder to me than the 12z NAM. I would agree. Nice front end thump IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 12z GGEM total snow. Pretty bullish in terms of amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 UKMET Meteograms for NYC show that around 5 mm of precipitation falls after 850s warm above freezing. Roughly 14-16 mm fall while 850s are below 0. Surface Temperatures are not all that warm either while 850s are below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.