bluewave Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 So there's still hope for NYC especially if the trend which is our friend turns colder. The GFS had 1-2 for NYC before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Yeah, that sounds about right based off of what I saw with StormVista. I would have to use soundings to see if there is a mid level cold/warm layer or not, and that would determine the precipitation type. Every model agrees for a front end frozen event, but just differ on the amounts. Thanks! I really need to cough up for EURO access... If I was going to put out a map right now, I'd go for 2-5" for the suburbs, if I had to go for an exact amount IMBY, it would be 3", Central Park probably sees 1-2" or so, exact amount 1". I'll probably draw up something later... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I think there's a chance at an inch or two for areas around NYC and Long Island, but keep in mind some of the initial snow will be lost before accumulating, and it's hard to get it more than 8-1 ratio this time of year. Whatever falls during daylight will also be tough to accumulate. You might not have to go far inland to get a better shot, even White Plains can pick up a few inches or so. Further north/east, especially from Danbury on along I-84, could get 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Of course there is the surprise factor.....it's a complex storm....nothing is etched in stone other than the trend is colder. 12 hours or less from now we might be singing a different tune. Uptons maps yesterday 12 hours ago for NYC/LI were all rain now look how it's changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Thanks! I really need to cough up for EURO access... If I was going to put out a map right now, I'd go for 2-5" for the suburbs, if I had to go for an exact amount IMBY, it would be 3", Central Park probably sees 1-2" or so, exact amount 1". I'll probably draw up something later... -skisheep I would agree. 1-3" for the city seems like a good call. More for the Suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Would it be cloudy at sunrise tomorrow thus keeping temps down a bit ? and when are the first flakes progged to make it to NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Would it be cloudy at sunrise tomorrow thus keeping temps down a bit ? and when are the first flakes progged to make it to NYC? I don't think its going to matter. Everyone in and around the city and coastal areas will be in the 35-38 range when the precip starts so there won't be any accumulations during the day. The places that managed to get an inch or two yesterday dropped to 32-34 and the snow was falling heavily. If you got light to moderate snow yesterday you probably didn't see much add up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 GGEM snowmap has a few inches for NYC model snow maps are useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 It's going to be cloudy from here on out. That might help us or hurt us. Some clearing tonight can help us cool but if it stays cloudy tonight, expect our low temps to be warmer than progged. A warmer start to tomorrow will make it even harder for the snow to accumulate on a warmer ground. Timing is crucial, and I think most of LI except the north shore will not see any accumulating snow from this. Surface temps are everything. Snow just doesn't accumulate here on the south shore in mid March sun, (ex. Mar 7-8th, yesterday). Maybe an inch at best for NYC, LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Time to start watching the dew points which are getting quite low - where they are tomorrow will be important http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/2013/3/17/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 model snow maps are useless Please explain why? Is it accuracy? Or only used by non pros? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 They're being conservative. They are also realizing the surface temps are going to be too warm. You just don't get several inches of snow with temps in the mid 30's. Keep an eye on the dewpoint since the wet bulb would be a more important factor than the surface temps in the mid 30s before it starts to precipitate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Watch up for Orange, Putnam, and interior CT. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 NWS Upton has had a very good winter, forecasting wise, by going conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Literally no model has close to nothing in interior CT, every model is at least 2-4"+ in areas where OKX has <1" on the maps. They also have a watch up for interior CT, which mentions up to .5" of ice, yet the map is nowhere near that. They have busted badly on almost every event this winter up here, this one to me looks like it will be no exception... -skisheep Snow maps from models don't take into account surface temps so those forecast snow totals from those maps are way too high. Exaggerating here but a model can show 50 degrees at the surface but if it shows snow, the snow maps will show accumulating snow, even at 50 degrees. Toss the snow maps if the surface temps are too warm. Good call OKX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I can see areas in NYC/LI receiving 1-2" of slop before rain.. This is strictly an interior/elevation event. The usual suspects ( orange, sussex, w passaic, n fairfield, putnam, n westchester) will do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Upton for NYC half an inch for tomm , half an inch for tomm night for NYC/LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 18z Nam snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 18z Nam snowfall map. That's a decent increase from 12z for here. -skisheep EDIT: Mods, the board is saying I've been 5 posted, but I don't know what I've done wrong? I'd appreciate a PM when you get a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 18z nam seemed a hair warmer? No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 18z nam seemed a hair warmer? No? Whats good bro.. Long time no speak Sussex/Orange counties stay 28-32 throughout the entire event on the 18z NAM.. Gonna be real ugly up here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Whats good bro.. Long time no speak Sussex/Orange counties stay 28-32 throughout the entire event on the 18z NAM.. Gonna be real ugly up here! Wow man! It's been awhile. Ehh, not much. Trying to see if my area can salvage a decent end to winter here in the Poconos. Hard time believing the 8 to 9 inch snow amount print out on the map above. Regardless, looks like a sure bet of a few inches transitioning to sleet/frz rain for us. Binghamton just put of an advisory for my area, 2 to 6 with some ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 18z nam seemed a hair warmer? No? The 18z NAM is a bit less favorable, snow wise, than the 12z run was. I've noticed the 18z NAM is often the warmest run of the day...so it might cool a fraction 6 hours from now...might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Wow man! It's been awhile. Ehh, not much. Trying to see if my area can salvage a decent end to winter here in the Poconos. Hard time believing the 8 to 9 inch snow amount print out on the map above. Regardless, looks like a sure bet of a few inches transitioning to sleet/frz rain for us. Binghamton just put of an advisory for my area, 2 to 6 with some ice. Yeah its looking like an average winter up here. As for this storm I can see 3-6" followed by .10-25" of ice for the area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The 18z GFS is pretty cold compared to it's 12z run.. around 0.25" of liquid into SMQ so far at hour 30 with 850s still around TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Better in this situation to remain conservative. If the 12z Euro is correct everyone will be mostly rain outside of Orange County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Better in this situation to remain conservative. If the 12z Euro is correct everyone will be mostly rain outside of Orange County.So are you saying that even higher elevations of Sussex Co. , will be mostly rain, even though routinely we get more snow than lowet elev, of Orange like, Warwick, Goshen, Chester etc.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 1200' isn't gonna help you when your 850 temps are above freezing. It will help with surface temps though which will increase your icing threat.. Areas to the north of you may stay below 0 at 850 longer hence more accumulation.. Regardless of elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 1200' isn't gonna help you when your 850 temps are above freezing. It will help with surface temps though which will increase your icing threat.. Areas to the north of you may stay below 0 at 850 longer hence more accumulation.. Regardless of elevation Exactly, elevation means nothing if the mid levels have become torched. Just aids in the potential for more ice along the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 From northern Orange on north, looks real good. Although, areas further to the south and southwest, Sussex county Nj, and here in Pike Pa, majority of the heaviest qpf has come through prior to 850's rising above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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