sferic Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Can anything go right whereas NYC/Western Long Island gets a few inches of snow tomorrow into Tuesday, any chance at all it stays all snow in NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Can anything go right whereas NYC/Western Long Island gets a few inches of snow tomorrow into Tuesday, any chance at all it stays all snow in NYC? I'd say the chance for all snow in NYC is 5% tops, it would take a major synoptic shift for that to happen. All frozen not out of the question in the NW burbs, but for NYC proper, going to be near impossible... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Can anything go right whereas NYC/Western Long Island gets a few inches of snow tomorrow into Tuesday, any chance at all it stays all snow in NYC? It's pretty much certain that this will not be all snow for NYC. The discussion is primarily focusing on the front end wintry potential. The 12z runs, so far, seemed to have ticked colder and snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Nice indeed, probably close to our best case scenario, I think that in order to see anything more than that, major changes have to take place, which given now that we are inside of 48 hours seems unlikely. Still a very nice storm for the end of march. -skisheep Agree, this should be really interesting to see how fast the warm air erodes the CAD tomorrow, and how much snow everyone gets. I think that everyone in this subforum with the exception to the far southern areas, will see some snow tomorrow. The only question is how much. That is still an open question that can be debated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Well I'd settle for a nice thump followed by mix to a couple hours of rain.... At least it's better then yesterday's maps...If it gets colder with tonights maps, even better. Could we see a wwa FOR NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 GGEM is now the best case scenario for us. Looks similar to the RGEM, anywhere between 8 and 20 mm or so of precip as snow here(Stamford), hard to tell because the color that's over us for most of the time is 1-3 mm per hour(looking at p-type maps, meteocentre isn't out yet), but just by looking at the storm I'd take a guess that it's on the higher end of that, so say 2 mm per hour for 6 hours plus some light stuff at the beginning and it's probably around 15 mm of precip as snow or so here, than an hour or two of ice, than rain. 15 mm is .6" liquid, so, verbatim, the GGEM is probably 5-7" here, and is now the best case scenario. Probably 3-5" verbatim in NYC, Nrn NJ and westchester similar to Stamford. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Overall a really great run, hopefully the EURO continues the trend in an hour or so. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 GGEM is now the best case scenario for us. Looks similar to the RGEM, anywhere between 8 and 20 mm or so of precip as snow here(Stamford), hard to tell because the color that's over us for most of the time is 1-3 mm per hour(looking at p-type maps, meteocentre isn't out yet), but just by looking at the storm I'd take a guess that it's on the higher end of that, so say 2 mm per hour for 6 hours plus some light stuff at the beginning and it's probably around 15 mm of precip as snow or so here, than an hour or two of ice, than rain. 15 mm is .6" liquid, so, verbatim, the GGEM is probably 5-7" here, and is now the best case scenario. Probably 3-5" verbatim in NYC, Nrn NJ and westchester similar to Stamford. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Overall a really great run, hopefully the EURO continues the trend in an hour or so. -skisheep Does NYC translate into western LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Well I'd settle for a nice thump followed by mix to a couple hours of rain.... At least it's better then yesterday's maps...If it gets colder with tonights maps, even better. Could we see a wwa FOR NYC? WWA is possible(probable?), not sure NYC sees the 4" criteria, but there probably will be at least a brief period of ice, which would trigger an automatic WWA. Maybe a 2-4" WWA with trace of ice, they seem to like to do those. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Does NYC translate into western LI? SW probably 2-3" maybe 4" before changeover, NW another inch or two ontop of that. NYC is probably more like 2-4" upon further examination, however, these are all rough estimates, when Meteocentre updates(probably around 60-90 minutes from now), I'll post the map of accumulations. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Hard to tell how much of this is snow on the UKMET, but I'd estimate the amounts roughly fall in line with the NAM/RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Hard to tell how much of this is snow on the UKMET, but I'd estimate the amounts roughly fall in line with the NAM/RGEM. So a 4-6" type of event for folks outside of the immediate metro/LI? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 So a 4-6" type of event for folks outside of the immediate metro/LI? -skisheep I would estimate so. It's out on meteocentre. I did a rough guess off of the temperatures and amount of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I would estimate so. It's out on meteocentre. I did a rough guess off of the temperatures and amount of precipitation. Just took a look at it, that seems reasonable. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 GGEM Meteograms show that about half of the precip is frozen for NYC. About 11-12 mm of snow, as well as 3 mm of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 GGEM Meteograms show that about half of the precip is frozen for NYC. About 11-12 mm of snow, as well as 3 mm of sleet.. .59 qpf looks too be 4.5 inches snow and almost 1.5 inches of sleet then switching to rain based on the GGEM! Very good trends today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 GGEM Meteograms show that about half of the precip is frozen for NYC. About 11-12 mm of snow, as well as 3 mm of sleet. That sounds like 2/3rds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Our high was 38 for today, it's 33 and no signs of climbing higher, we are going to bust well below forecast. A potential good sign? Only time will tell... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Our high was 38 for today, it's 33 and no signs of climbing higher, we are going to bust well below forecast. A potential good sign? Only time will tell... -skisheep Yeah, a lot more cloud cover than anticipated reflecting more sunlight and keeping temperatures cooler than forecast may make some difference at least to the surface.Looking at the UKMET Meteograms, I would estimate around 15 mm falls as frozen for the city. Again, just a rough estimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 That sounds like 2/3rds. It's really wet. It has around 20 mm of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 When is the next major run of significance for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Yeah, a lot more cloud cover than anticipated reflecting more sunlight and keeping temperatures cooler than forecast may make some difference at least to the surface. Looking at the UKMET Meteograms, I would estimate around 15 mm falls as frozen for the city. Again, just a rough estimate. In such a borderline situation, any little bit that we can get I see as a positive. if UKIE is really 15 mm for NYC proper, it's probably 17 or so up here, which comes to around 2/3" of liquid, 5-8" would be a total overperformer and bump this winter up to an A for me. It's not totally unsupported, the RGEM/GGEM are in the ballpark, although all three are the snowy outliers. EURO in a few minutes is big... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 When is the next major run of significance for us? The 12z ECMWF which will initialize at 1:45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The UKMET is also pretty cold at the surface as well. Only gets NYC to 3 degrees C per the Meteograms, or 37 degrees Fahrenheit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 GGEM snowmap has a few inches for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 SWCT/northern NJ/westchester see 15 mm as snow which is around .65 liquid, 5-8" -skisheep GGEM snowmap has a few inches for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I wouldn't expect more than C-1" for NYC/coast, if we can muster that. The synoptic set-up is very unfavorable in mid winter nevermind late March. NW folks may do well but overall it's a very interior oriented event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The Euro is a bit slower than the rest of the guidance. Hr 36 is very light precip with cold temps. Hr 42 is moderate precip with a mixed bag. Hr 48 is rain for everyone outside of Orange County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The thermal profiles on the Euro look pretty similar to the 00z run, expect everything looks a tick cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The thermal profiles on the Euro look pretty similar to the 00z run, expect everything looks a tick cooler. Good to know, so probably something like 1-3" for city 2-5" suburbs? (I don't have EURO access, so I'm taking a wild guess based off what I read about 0z run.) -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Good to know, so probably something like 1-3" for city 2-5" suburbs? (I don't have EURO access, so I'm taking a wild guess based off what I read about 0z run.) -skisheep Yeah, that sounds about right based off of what I saw with StormVista. I would have to use soundings to see if there is a mid level cold/warm layer or not, and that would determine the precipitation type. Every model agrees for a front end frozen event, but just differ on the amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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