jm1220 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I'm a lot more excited for my former stomping grounds in Central PA and the rich-get-richer SNE crew than I am for the immediate area-looks very borderline and very short lived in terms of when and how we can get snow around immediate NYC and the coast. North/northeast/west can score a few inches or so hopefully. It would take a lot though to shift the goods much further south than there though. I would expect maybe an hour or two of mix then just rain for much of the immediate metro area and places near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I'm a lot more excited for my former stomping grounds in Central PA and the rich-get-richer SNE crew than I am for the immediate area-looks very borderline and very short lived in terms of when and how we can get snow around immediate NYC and the coast. North/northeast/west can score a few inches or so hopefully. It would take a lot though to shift the goods much further south than there though. I would expect maybe an hour or two of mix then just rain for much of the immediate metro area and places near the coast. Going to be a dramatic contrast between your area and mine on this event. I wouldn't expect more than a coating to an inch at Long Beach whereas Westchester could easily get 3-6". I could see elevated areas in Northern Westchester staying all frozen as surface temperatures could be slower to rise than 850s. The 12z ECM was a pretty nice thump though....heavy precipitation falling at 0z Tuesday and NYC still has -3C to -4C 850s...you'd definitely be snow through that time frame on the Euro. It mostly falls at night which is a big advantage as we saw with today's event...didn't really stick here until that last heavy band around 5:30pm which gave us our half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Going to be a dramatic contrast between your area and mine on this event. I wouldn't expect more than a coating to an inch at Long Beach whereas Westchester could easily get 3-6". I could see elevated areas in Northern Westchester staying all frozen as surface temperatures could be slower to rise than 850s. The 12z ECM was a pretty nice thump though....heavy precipitation falling at 0z Tuesday and NYC still has -3C to -4C 850s...you'd definitely be snow through that time frame on the Euro. It mostly falls at night which is a big advantage as we saw with today's event...didn't really stick here until that last heavy band around 5:30pm which gave us our half inch. It looks like this is setting up to be an event where NE and NW suburbs could see a nice (3-6" maybe more if everything works out just right(although that's a long shot)), event, while the immediate metro gets mostly rain. I'd be suprised to see anywhere in this subforum except for maybe Orange County being all frozen, but Northern Westchester would be a good place to be for this one. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Going to be a dramatic contrast between your area and mine on this event. I wouldn't expect more than a coating to an inch at Long Beach whereas Westchester could easily get 3-6". I could see elevated areas in Northern Westchester staying all frozen as surface temperatures could be slower to rise than 850s. The 12z ECM was a pretty nice thump though....heavy precipitation falling at 0z Tuesday and NYC still has -3C to -4C 850s...you'd definitely be snow through that time frame on the Euro. It mostly falls at night which is a big advantage as we saw with today's event...didn't really stick here until that last heavy band around 5:30pm which gave us our half inch. The Euro has been a little cold on the major events this winter, it was a degree or two cold on the 2/8 storm which was the difference in my immediate area between hours of sleet that could have been heavy snow. It might be different this time and other models seem to be getting colder little by little but I would still hedge on a solution just a bit warmer than the Euro. CAD often manifests itself last-minute on the models, so that could portend well for places just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 looks like Upton has changed their forecast for this storm Monday afternoon through Tuesday now siding with the colder Nam/Euro http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 looks like Upton has changed their forecast for this storm Monday afternoon through Tuesday now siding with the colder Nam/Euro http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html You can add the latest RGEM to the "cold" camp as well. Gives a little over 10 mm of accumulated front end snow to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 6z Hi Res NAM snowmap: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Dead in here considering a high magnitude March event looms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 NAM coming in colder again. Here in NW NJ it is cold and more overcast than progged. With a fresh snow cover, if we get a clear night --- this could be another over performer in many spots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The NAM is even colder than the 6z run. Looks like a really solid hit for Route 78 northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 NAM is below freezing at the surface even at hour 42 for NW NJ and Putnam, Orange counties in NY. 850's move a little North of the area at that time so maybe sleet? But shows some decent snow before that up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 NAM is below freezing at the surface even at hour 42 for NW NJ and Putnam, Orange counties in NY. 850's move a little North of the area at that time so maybe sleet? But shows some decent snow before that up here. All of NJ has above freezing 850s at hour 42, but by then, it has largely stopped precipitating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 Does anyone have nam snow map, I would think from 78 north verbatim 2-3" then ice/sleet, maybe some rain...but I would be surprised if temps get much above 33 or so for most in north jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 NAM is below freezing at the surface even at hour 42 for NW NJ and Putnam, Orange counties in NY. 850's move a little North of the area at that time so maybe sleet? But shows some decent snow before that up here. What time would the changover be occuring here in Putnam? How much snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 HR 39 on the 4KM NAM brings the freezing line up to about Route 78 but at HR 42 it's well up into the HV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The E Wall 4 km NAM snow maps should really be lighting up when they come out. The 4 km NAM is a really nice hit for Route 78 north, including NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I'm more worried about the timing now. NAM has this starting around 2-5PM tomorrow, if snow does fall, many places may struggle to accumulate with the March sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 HR 39 on the 4KM NAM brings the freezing line up to about Route 78 That's very borderline, but I think would be enough to make many, including myself, very happy! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Does anyone have nam snow map, I would think from 78 north verbatim 2-3" then ice/sleet, maybe some rain...but I would be surprised if temps get much above 33 or so for most in north jersey The E Wall snow maps should be coming out in a bit. Those are generally pretty accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 HR 39 on the 4KM NAM brings the freezing line up to about Route 78 but at HR 42 it's well up into the HV By hour 42 at least on the regular NAM, the precip has largely stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 the area goes over to sleet by 36 hrs on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 By hour 42 at least on the regular NAM, the precip has largely stopped. at HR 51 the 4KM NAM brings some more precip into the area but the temps are warm. The freezing line seems to run vertically through West Milford to Trenton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Does anyone have nam snow map, I would think from 78 north verbatim 2-3" then ice/sleet, maybe some rain...but I would be surprised if temps get much above 33 or so for most in north jersey Not the most accurate, but here you go! Looks like around 4" or so here. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The NAM run is largely frozen for most of northern new jersey. The surface is actually surprisingly cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The RGEM looks snowier than last night's run. Really nice front end thump for most places, including the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 RGEM looks snowier for NYC on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The RGEM looks snowier than last night's run. Really nice front end thump for most places, including the city. No kidding, it's probably close to warning criteria here(10-15 mm, which is 4-6" and I'd guess we are on the upper edge of that considering the city is also in the same 10-15 zone, plus add in some ice before the rain, and it's probably verbatim a warning event for the burbs) total accumulated snow map through 48 is below, reason that northern locations are so low is that precip reaches them later than us. also keep in mind the maps usually run a touch warm. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 No kidding, it's probably close to warning criteria here(10-15 mm, which is 4-6" and I'd guess we are on the upper edge of that considering the city is also in the same 10-15 zone, plus add in some ice before the rain, and it's probably verbatim a warning event for the burbs) total accumulated snow map through 48 is below, reason that northern locations are so low is that precip reaches them later than us. also keep in mind the maps usually run a touch warm. -skisheep Looks like a general 4-6 inches from Route 78 northward. Nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Looks like a general 4-6 inches from Route 78 northward. Nice run. Nice indeed, probably close to our best case scenario, I think that in order to see anything more than that, major changes have to take place, which given now that we are inside of 48 hours seems unlikely. Still a very nice storm for the end of march. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The GFS is colder than the NAM and doesn't have the sleet since its 800 mb jet-WAA is weaker than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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