Zelocita Weather Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 EURO/GGEM/RGEM Looks good from 2-4"+ on the front end of the storm with a slight cold trend in place over the past couple of runs....lets see if that can continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 EURO/GGEM/RGEM Looks good from 2-4"+ on the front end of the storm with a slight cold trend in place over the past couple of runs....lets see if that can continue. if the precip starts after dark there is a chance of accumulation away from the coast - if it starts during the day accumulation chances lessen considerably especially in NYC and immediate suburbs near the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 if the precip starts after dark there is a chance of accumulation away from the coast - if it starts during the day accumulation chances lessen considerably especially in NYC and immediate suburbs near the coast If temps are cold it will stick. I'm sticking in the middle of day time heating right now in Queens with only light to moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 if the precip starts after dark there is a chance of accumulation away from the coast - if it starts during the day accumulation chances lessen considerably especially in NYC and immediate suburbs near the coast But most of this snow is being wasted. I had HEAVY snow, and it didn't stick one bit. Even on colder surfaces. Some places are reporting dustings/coatings. That's it. We would be getting a couple inches right now if it was night. Today's event shows the importance of getting events at night this time of year. So I agree that we need Monday's event to come in as late as possible. Meant this post for ag3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 But most of this snow is being wasted. I had HEAVY snow, and it didn't stick one bit. Even on colder surfaces. Some places are reporting dustings/coatings. That's it. We would be getting a couple inches right now if it was night. Today's event shows the importance of getting events at night this time of year. So I agree that we need Monday's event to come in as late as possible. Meant this post for ag3. Most had light to moderate snow for this event...and it only lasted a couple hours. But I somewhat agree, it would have been an inch in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 But most of this snow is being wasted. I had HEAVY snow, and it didn't stick one bit. Even on colder surfaces. Some places are reporting dustings/coatings. That's it. We would be getting a couple inches right now if it was night. Today's event shows the importance of getting events at night this time of year. So I agree that we need Monday's event to come in as late as possible. Meant this post for ag3. I think consensus for the front end thump is monday night/early tuesday morning on everything except the GGEM/RGEM(extrapolated) which is monday afternoon/evening, but the GGEM/RGEM(extrapolated) is cold enough to stick even in the afternooon. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 I think consensus for the front end thump is monday night/early tuesday morning on everything except the GGEM/RGEM(extrapolated) which is monday afternoon/evening, but the GGEM/RGEM(extrapolated) is cold enough to stick even in the afternooon. -skisheep You should be more specific about which part of the metro you are talking about - this is why just one forum for the entire NYC metro is very confusing especially in borderline situations - which around here has been the case during most of the storms this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Euro snowmaps from accuweather pro have close to 6 inches for SMQ and more as you go N and W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 You should be more specific about which part of the metro you are talking about - this is why just one forum for the entire NYC metro is very confusing especially in borderline situations - which around here has been most of the storms this season Sorry, unless I mention otherwise, I'm talking about Stamford, CT. I think that anywhere outside of the immediate city though there should be no trouble with sticking assuming this shows up like modeled on the EURO. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Euro snowmaps from accuweather pro have close to 6 inches for SMQ and more as you go N and W. It has close to 3-6 for NYC. Looks like 2-4 on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 But most of this snow is being wasted. I had HEAVY snow, and it didn't stick one bit. Even on colder surfaces. Some places are reporting dustings/coatings. That's it. We would be getting a couple inches right now if it was night. Today's event shows the importance of getting events at night this time of year. So I agree that we need Monday's event to come in as late as possible. Meant this post for ag3. I have more than an inch here and probably closing in on two inches soon. If it is cold, it will stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 I have more than an inch here and probably closing in on two inches soon. If it is cold, it will stick. Warren county? It's a different world in NW Jersey in the higher elevations. I've had moderate to heavy snow here today, and no accumulation at all. I would've had 1 to 2 inches if this happened at night. It's tough for snow to stick during the daytime this time of year, in the lower elevations. Unless you have temps freezing or below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Upton is going all rain for most areas as of this afternoon's update... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Upton is going all rain for most areas as of this afternoon's update... That seems to make little sense, really every model is now an nice event for us, GFS was around 4", EURO 4-6"+, GGEM/RGEM a nice hit as well. Not sure where they are going, but I've noticed that Upton almost always goes very warm, they went warm in the blizzard and in the latest march event, as well as in their daily temps. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 That seems to make little sense, really every model is now an nice event for us, GFS was around 4", EURO 4-6"+, GGEM/RGEM a nice hit as well. Not sure where they are going, but I've noticed that Upton almost always goes very warm, they went warm in the blizzard and in the latest march event, as well as in their daily temps. -skisheep You can't assume 10-1 ratios with a marginal snow setup that will take time most likely to start accumulating and will compress/melt fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 That seems to make little sense, really every model is now an nice event for us, GFS was around 4", EURO 4-6"+, GGEM/RGEM a nice hit as well. Not sure where they are going, but I've noticed that Upton almost always goes very warm, they went warm in the blizzard and in the latest march event, as well as in their daily temps. -skisheep well Mount Holly is going for all rain in Somerset County NJ which is well inland http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KPHI.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 That seems to make little sense, really every model is now an nice event for us, GFS was around 4", EURO 4-6"+, GGEM/RGEM a nice hit as well. Not sure where they are going, but I've noticed that Upton almost always goes very warm, they went warm in the blizzard and in the latest march event, as well as in their daily temps. -skisheep They are even going for mostly rain up this way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Just read Upton's AFD, looks like they are riding the GFS and tossing the EURO, seems like a bold decision given it's track record recently, but we shall see... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Just read Upton's AFD, looks like they are riding the GFS and tossing the EURO, seems like a bold decision given it's track record recently, but we shall see... -skisheep The GFS still gives areas in the far interior a advisory level event.. We shall see.. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KMGJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 They are even going for mostly rain up this way.. Not sure where you see that? Monday Night: Snow, mainly after 9pm. Low around 28. East wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Not sure where you see that? Monday Night: Snow, mainly after 9pm. Low around 28. East wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. -skisheep That was updated within the last 30 mins.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 That was updated within the last 30 mins.. Maybe they're lurking here? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Upton also had a mix of rain/snow for today in Dobbs Ferry, even though we saw 100% snow. Their high temperature was 2F too warm with a projected maximum of 40F versus an actual maximum of 37.7F. They tend to have a warm bias. I do think that NYC will have a tough time accumulating on a SW flow event this late in the season. There is a 1028mb high directly to the north, however, and the antecedent airmass has 850s of around -9C, so that's encouraging. I'd tend to lean 1-3" for NYC (maybe just a coating down by JFK) with 2-4" for the immediate suburbs and 3-6" up towards Orange and Putnam Counties...thinking 2-4" here in Dobbs Ferry but haven't looked closely yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The airmass behind this storm looks incredibly impressive as well...18z GFS has -12C 850s over NYC at 96 hours with a small area of -15C over the Ohio Valley stretching down to Indianapolis. My averages are 52/31 by March 20th, and I don't see anyone getting above 40F with the CAA behind the system. Lows should be well into the 20s, and even teens, for areas to the northwest that retain sufficient snow cover to radiate well as the high pressure pushes in. Overall, setting up for a very exciting and impressive end to March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Upton also had a mix of rain/snow for today in Dobbs Ferry, even though we saw 100% snow. Their high temperature was 2F too warm with a projected maximum of 40F versus an actual maximum of 37.7F. They tend to have a warm bias. I do think that NYC will have a tough time accumulating on a SW flow event this late in the season. There is a 1028mb high directly to the north, however, and the antecedent airmass has 850s of around -9C, so that's encouraging. I'd tend to lean 1-3" for NYC (maybe just a coating down by JFK) with 2-4" for the immediate suburbs and 3-6" up towards Orange and Putnam Counties...thinking 2-4" here in Dobbs Ferry but haven't looked closely yet. 2-4" seems like a reasonable first call, I think there's a decent chance that you hit the high range of that(potentially higher), but there are quite a few caution flags, so it's going to have to look good inside of 36 or so to go higher than 3-5" or so. I've noticed that Upton runs warm, I tend to subtract 2-3 F from what they're thinking for a temp, they have the low here monday night as 33, I'd bet it will verify 29-30 or so. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The NAM/GFS appear to be on the warmer side of guidance, while the GGEM/Euro are on the colder side. The GFS gives the burbs of NYC a front end thump by the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The 00z rgem is an absolute wintry mess. It gives several hours of snow before it changes over to an icy mix at the last frame for the city. Most of the burbs are still heavily snowing at this point. Would have changed to rain most likely in an hour or two after the last frame for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The 00z rgem is an absolute wintry mess. It gives several hours of snow before it changes over to an icy mix at the last frame. Would most likely have changed to rain most likely in an hour or two after the last frame. Does it look better than previous runs? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Does it look better than previous runs? -skisheep Not sure, since precip did not quite reach the area in previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Not sure, since precip did not quite reach the area in previous runs. Good point, forgot for a second that the RGEM is only to 48. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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