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Obs/discussion from the In and Out storm nobody cares about march 17-18


Ji

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12z NAM has decided to re up the QPF compared to its last few runs... back to .3 to .4 IAD and DCA. BWI around .2. MRB to CHO to EZF around .5. I-95 is 32 at 9z, 30 at 12z, 32 at 15z. Decent band comes through between 4 and 8 am it would appear and then we dry slot for a lil while before the rain comes

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-- Changed Discussion --

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE

VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE LIFTING TO

THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE

INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE

REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SUNK SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING

WHERE IT HAS FOR ALL INTENTS AND PURPOSES STALLED OUT. THERE/S ONE

WEAK WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND

ANOTHER BACK INTO TEXAS.

MODELS ALREADY INDICATE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE

SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH RADAR TRENDS

OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.

EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS LIFT TO STRETCH OUT TO THE EAST INTO

SOUTHERN MARYLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND ALSO INCH NORTH THROUGH

THE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH THERE WILL BE

SOME DRY AIR TO OVERCOME ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA

INITIALLY AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE MAY WIND UP

BEING DRY THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO SHOW THIS TIGHT

GRADIENT OF PRECIP IN POP/WX GRIDS FOR TODAY.

P-TYPE DURING THE DAYTIME TODAY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATION

DEPENDENT...WHERE THOSE ABOVE 1000-1500 FT WILL BE SNOW AND THOSE

BELOW WILL JUST BE RAIN. WINTER STORM WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT

THIS AFTERNOON FOR HIGHLAND/PENDLETON COUNTIES. MOST OF THOSE

COUNTIES ARE HIGH ENOUGH WHERE SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE

OBSERVED.

-- End

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I think I could get maybe 1" or so. Which is a huge event this year. I'm expecting about .5".. standard DC event. 40% we get the storm of the winter.. which is like 1.25" to match snowquester (estimate.. didn't measure before it melted).

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