PhineasC Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 I'm staring at the best event of the year in my yard and I expect a total fail. I've eaten too many acid soaked lemons this year. I think the lead up to the March 6th non-event was a better look for us than whatever this is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 I don't see why this would be a grass-only event. Seems like temperatures would be legitimately below freezing at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 I think the lead up to the March 6th non-event was a better look for us than whatever this is. Agreed but that was the fail that future fails will have a really hard time trying to fail as bad. This one is simple at least. Temps look fine. Precip is the big spread with models. It's not a redevelopment thing at least. I need to set my fail bar. Anything less than 1.5 is fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 I think the lead up to the March 6th non-event was a better look for us than whatever this is. Temps are a little better probably (at least they look that way) plus there's a cold air source--tho we're really not going to 'tap' it during the event, but better to have it there. No reason for anyone to have any confidence whatsoever in anything more than a chance of snow in the air outside elevation imo. The window is small it seems (could just be 6z to 12z for many) and temps are still pretty marginal. At this pt in the yr you prob want to be 32 or less.. preferably below 30 even at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Temps are a little better probably (at least they look that way) plus there's a cold air source--tho we're really not going to 'tap' it during the event, but better to have it there. No reason for anyone to have any confidence whatsoever in anything more than a chance of snow in the air outside elevation imo. The window is small it seems (could just be 6z to 12z for many) and temps are still pretty marginal. At this pt in the yr you prob want to be 32 or less.. preferably below 30 even at night. It does look that way, but temps are upper 20s on the soundings at 39 and 42... looks like it comes down at a decent clip with some rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 It does look that way, but temps are upper 20s on the soundings at 39 and 42... looks like it comes down at a decent clip with some rates Problem is a better air mass might end up about the same. We've gained about 4 degrees since the 6th on avg. Though the leadup will also be colder. The NAM is probably too cold. If I can get to 32 and get like .15-.2 in three hours I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 FWIW, WPC snow graphics show 10% chance of 4" DC area... 40% out where the WSW is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 looks like the gfs is coming back to its senses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 looks like the gfs is coming back to its senses It agrees with the 18z NAM re start time for "snow" which is after midnight... lets see what 39 and 42 looks like... 36 has decent QPF direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 It agrees with the 18z NAM re start time for "snow" which is after midnight... lets see what 39 and 42 looks like... 36 has decent QPF direction it's way suckier than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 it's way suckier than 12z even worse QPF wise than 18z NAM... though .2 of snow is still good enough with temps in upper 20s to around 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Hug the euro and ignore all the noise. .15-.2 with good temps. Best case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 even worse QPF wise than 18z NAM... though .2 of snow is still good enough with temps in upper 20s to around 30 on the snow maps places north of balt went from 8-12" zone to 0" on this run. heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 it's the 18z, throw it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Im staying up all night if I can get 1" with temps below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Meh.. All models coming around to a solution of a band of light precip to our south before moving north and then the changeover. NAM overdoing the precip as usual. Stick with the euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Im staying up all night if I can get 1" with temps below freezing. careful Bob somebody like mitchnick will point out ground temps melting it on contact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Every time I'm ready to give up I get sucked back in. Never ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 FWIW, WPC snow graphics show 10% chance of 4" DC area... 40% out where the WSW is What do they know at HPC? They need to consult all the experts here who say it can't snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winterstorm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winterstorm/ they've already backed west a bit but still seem pretty bullish in loudoun etc., east of the BR at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 We'll be in rap range pretty soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 lol at you guys chasing flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 NAM pretty much drops 0.25-0.35 for everybody... looks like snow through 40ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 NAM looks basically the same ad far as I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 lol at you guys chasing flurries I haven't looked at any guidance this evening but I am pretty sure it isn't flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 NAM looks basically the same ad far as I can tell. Maybe in total precip, but the bad part is it delayed the onset of the heaviest precipitation by a few hours- enough to push it right up to sunrise and after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Maybe in total precip, but the bad part is it delayed the onset of the heaviest precipitation by a few hours- enough to push it right up to sunrise and after. True, but it still keeps the temps in the around 30 during the snow till it warms above freezing around noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Maybe in total precip, but the bad part is it delayed the onset of the heaviest precipitation by a few hours- enough to push it right up to sunrise and after. if you look at the sim/rad, to me it just looks like a glorified warm front where everything of frozen consequence comes with the 1st half of the band, then a transition once the main band is through, the attack on whatever wintry may have fallen begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 True, but it still keeps the temps in the around 30 during the snow till it warms above freezing around noon I don't care what the NAM shows verbatim- it's probably not going to be below freezing at 10 am in DC on Monday morning, and since we're not getting great rates, the sun being up is going to be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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