mdhokie Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 50 and sunny. I thought this weekend was supposed to be a wash out. Damn you Doug Kammererer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 50 and sunny. I thought this weekend was supposed to be a wash out. Damn you Doug Kammererer. The 6000 hr CFS nailed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 333 PM EDT SAT MAR 16 2013 MDZ501-502-VAZ025>027-503-504-WVZ050-055-501>506-170345- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0005.130317T2000Z-130318T2200Z/ EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA- ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE- HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL- WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...STAUNTON... WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...MOOREFIELD... BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...ELK GARDEN...KEYSER... FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN 333 PM EDT SAT MAR 16 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 1500 FEET. A GLAZE OF ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY ABOVE 1500 FEET. * TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MONDAY BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. * TEMPERATURES...MID TO UPPER 30S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 LWX AFD states " SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND IT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 LOL It never gets old seeing the Euro crush weenie dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 15z SREFs still like .4 to .5 QPF for DCA west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 LOL It never gets old seeing the Euro crush weenie dreams. It's the drill. Models show something cool pretty far out. It goes from looking good to bad like 20 times until we get close. Models agree it's cold enough to snow. Everything except the euro starts dropping lotsa model snow so we keep waiting for the euro to catch on. And we wait and we wait. Then it flizzles snizzles and drizzles before the rain comes in fast and heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 15z SREFs still like .4 to .5 QPF for DCA west Didnt they show double what we actually got on march 6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 16, 2013 Author Share Posted March 16, 2013 It's the drill. Models show something cool pretty far out. It goes from looking good to bad like 20 times until we get close. Models agree it's cold enough to snow. Everything except the euro starts dropping lotsa model snow so we keep waiting for the euro to catch on. And we wait and we wait. Then it flizzles snizzles and drizzles before the rain comes in fast and heavy. Wrong on right the euro will never budge and go from .25 to .75 in one run before the storm starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Looks like LWX is hugging the GFS at least west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Looks like LWX is hugging the GFS at least west NAM is juicy at 36, but confluence smashes it south of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 16, 2013 Author Share Posted March 16, 2013 Looks like LWX is hugging the GFS at least west Sweet. Love being under a wsw even though it will never live up to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 16, 2013 Author Share Posted March 16, 2013 NAM is juicy at 36, but confluence smashes it south of DC I'd wait about 35 hours and 40 minutes before you take the nam seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 I'd wait about 35 hours and 40 minutes before you take the nam seriously Is it even past 36 hours or is mine stuck? How do we know if it gets crushed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 fwiw the euro blew it in pa today with my 2.5" snow, so maybe it's turning into a tom brady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 39 and 42 look nice... too bad its the NAM. 45 looks like transition time for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 16, 2013 Author Share Posted March 16, 2013 Destroys us anyway. Euro vs Gfs and nam hmm déjà vu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Destroys us anyway. Euro vs Gfs and nam hmm déjà vu I know which card I'm taking in that fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 16, 2013 Author Share Posted March 16, 2013 fwiw the euro blew it in pa today with my 2.5" snow, so maybe it's turning into a tom brady Underdone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 My WV place is between 1650' and 1960' so this should put me above average snowfall for the season by Monday morning.. Pretty cool. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC333 PM EDT SAT MAR 16 2013MDZ501-502-VAZ025>027-503-504-WVZ050-055-501>506-170345-/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0005.130317T2000Z-130318T2200Z/EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN333 PM EDT SAT MAR 16 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHMONDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAYAFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 1500 FEET. A GLAZE OF ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY ABOVE 1500 FEET.* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MONDAY BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN.* TEMPERATURES...MID TO UPPER 30S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Destroys us anyway. Euro vs Gfs and nam hmm déjà vu Most of the "snow" comes between 2 and 9 am looks like... .4 QPF? Then we dryslot for a lil while till late afternoon when the rain comes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 It looks like its till snow at 45 according to the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Underdone? dr no had a coating on the grass maybe, now it's in the tank getting eaten by sharks with lazer beams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 It looks like its till snow at 45 according to the soundings. Probably sleet/drizzle... warm layer shows up in the 775-800 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Probably sleet/drizzle... warm layer shows up in the 775-800 there's nothing falling of note then anyway. no reason to even look past 12z most spots sans elevation imo. it won't stick unless we're getting pounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 there's nothing falling of note then anyway. no reason to even look past 12z most spots sans elevation imo. it won't stick unless we're getting pounded. It will mainly be a grass event anyway for us... would be nice to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 nam sim shows a prime solution for mega radar hallucinations. should be a long evening/night whatever happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 I'm staring at the best event of the year in my yard and I expect a total fail. I've eaten too many acid soaked lemons this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 I'm staring at the best event of the year in my yard and I expect a total fail. I've eaten too many acid soaked lemons this year. i think we've said the same like 4 or 5 times this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 i think we've said the same like 4 or 5 times this winter. The good thing is that I haven't spent much time on this one. Quick glance and go is as far as I've gone with any suite. If it happens it will feel like a freebie. Free is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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