stormtracker Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 yessir. here's the sounding. It's a sight for sore eyes that may not be there in 6 hours. allindcasnd.PNG Your face is going to look like your avatar when the Euro comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 This is 24hr precip thru hr 51. Looks like everything flips to rain by hr54. I think this is all snow from what I see on the panels. I'll check soundings later. allfnin.PNG So you're saying .5 is all snow. Even in DC. Nice name for the pic too. I knew you'd come to your senses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 I wish to name this storm: "The snowstorm formerly known as Snowquester" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 DCA is basically between 1 and -1 from h7 level all the way to the surface at 54, so that would be the switchover period... perhaps an hour earlier. Still a nice run soundings wise for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Significantly colder than the bust storm at all the important levels. Huge difference in modeled dew points. We kind of shrugged them off 10 days ago, but they were in the 32-34° range. Both the NAM and GFS are 30 or below for the overnight hours this possible event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Back again guys because this threat actually has some backing to it. What I see that separates it right off the bat is that it is going to attempt to precipitate with temperatures below 32 degrees. What also makes this set-up beneficial to us, at least going off of the rgem and the gfs is the timing; i.e. a solid overrunning shield of precipitation moving into a well-established CAD environment. This area works well with CAD, and wind direction is not going to hurt us much this time. The low pressure is not overly intense as to immediate pull north warm air, so for at least hours 36-48 its all snow for all west of the bay, including the cities. Soundings from the GFS are impressive, some of the more favorable ones we have seen this season. Temperatures in the 20's with moderate snows coming down at night is certainly something we haven't had much of this winter. Additionally, if the CAD can hold its ground, this could be a somewhat significant system back towards the blue Ridge area where the cold air holds the longest. The areas that look primed for even snow in assoc. w/ the low include MRB and OKV and even HGR into S PA. The GFS is in the snowy camp right now, and the rgem temperature wise is not bad. The best sign from that model is that it pulls the overrunning north more, so DC and Baltimore likely will not be whiffed to the south by that. If I had to guess on the Euro and what it will do, I'd say that it will moisten up a bit, but its hard to tell. The models are not in full agreement, though trends are positive and the cold air is getting more impressive as we near. I'll have more, but this one has caught my eye a bit. A nice DPP doesn't hurt on the soundings either, way better tempwise set-up compared to the 3/6 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Plus, the whole sounding is saturated, unlike the snowsequester at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Plus, the whole sounding is saturated, unlike the snowsequester at times. Yes, in this instance you would like a saturated column, certainly a helpful way to stay snow and sustain some precipitation, rather than being in 25dbz on radar but spitting in actuality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Your face is going to look like your avatar when the Euro comes out. I was gonna wait till the euro before switching the avatar but I decided that the euro is going to smoke us so I went all in a little early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 So who cares to talk best-case scenarios? 0.5 inches all snow. 3-5 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Pretty scary... GFS is around 1" liquid west of town with the column well below 0 including the surface. The NAM is somewhere between .5 and .75 and solidly below 0. If the Euro concurs, and 18Z doesn't flip, wouldn't be surprised to see WSWs issued for out here at somepoint tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 So who cares to talk best-case scenarios? 0.5 inches all snow. 3-5 inches? Right now that's in far center field, but still in the ball park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 16, 2013 Author Share Posted March 16, 2013 This is 24hr precip thru hr 51. Looks like everything flips to rain by hr54. I think this is all snow from what I see on the panels. I'll check soundings later. allfnin.PNG Didn't euro show this a few days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 This would be the last run to use the ensemble mean, correct? DCA QPF through 48 is around 0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Euro looks pretty similar to last night thru 12z Monday.. up to 1" to about 95 maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Euro looks pretty similar to last night thru 12z Monday.. up to 1" to about 95 maybe. 1" of liquid! Told ya. Oh wait.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 I can't hop all in if the Euro isn't on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Maybe a hair wetter but mostly noticeable from like Fredericksburg south. .25" thru 18z Mon Potomac and SW. Perhaps slightly snowier west in elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 DCA prob like .15-18" thru 12z? No chance I'd believe in anything after that unless we're getting destroyed. At 12z the 32F sfc line is sitting just NW of 95 it appears. At 6z it's way north of that (S PA to about MRB to west of Winterwxluvr.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 16, 2013 Author Share Posted March 16, 2013 Ugh I'm out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 DCA prob like .15-18" thru 12z? No chance I'd believe in anything after that unless we're getting destroyed. At 12z the 32F sfc line is sitting just NW of 95 it appears. At 6z it's way north of that (S PA to about MRB to west of Winterwxluvr.. sounds like about an inch. I'm siding with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Maybe a hair wetter but mostly noticeable from like Fredericksburg south. .25" thru 18z Mon Potomac and SW. Perhaps slightly snowier west in elevation. Sounds like the 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 eh, about .15-.20 with good snow temps. Zzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 16, 2013 Author Share Posted March 16, 2013 Looks like about .40 frozen for jyo before rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Maybe the Euro will have some huge storm in fantasy land to keep us hooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 sounds like about an inch. I'm siding with the Euro. best case for us prob. at least half of that is with temps in like the mid-30s based on the maps. white rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 16, 2013 Author Share Posted March 16, 2013 Gfs used to be deadly 24 hours out? What happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Gfs used to be deadly 24 hours out? What happened? I'm on the road to becoming one of those full on Euro huggers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 16, 2013 Author Share Posted March 16, 2013 Readers destroying cwg again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Though it is a blow, I wouldn't give up quite yet.. The euro sparks off snow showers around EZF and keeps the cold air locked in until 21z (much longer than the GFS).. Edit: It's actually more in the NAM camp than anything else... Still a game of 10's of miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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