Deck Pic Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Not till the HECS lol That becomes part of the problem even in a regional forum....I think some people (not me or you of course) talk about events collectively as if they will impact the area the same...The better areas got 1-3" this morning...they might do good again while we get zilch....Ji probably has 15-20" this winter...I have <3"...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Just 36 hours ago the GFS gave us .5" QPF, all snow, overnight last night into the morning. what did the euro give us?...the GFS is terrible.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Not till the HECS lol I hope that .0000001% chance of a HECS pans out, mainly so I can troll you. But you have a 99% chance of winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 what did the euro give us?...the GFS is terrible.... euro was always the driest model in the storm. GFS had .80 as of Saturday while the Euro had .20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 what did the euro give us?...the GFS is terrible.... I think the Euro was like .15 to .2? It was the driest of them all.....and of course the most accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I hope that .0000001% chance of a HECS pans out, mainly so I can troll you. But you have a 99% chance of winning. for who? The winchester/JYO/MRB folks have 15-20" and we have 3"..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 euro was always the driest model in the storm. GFS had .80 as of Saturday while the Euro had .20 I think the Euro was like .15 to .2? It was the driest of them all.....and of course the most accurate. yeah...it is the best model by far....i think it has become more apparent this winter that there isn't really much reason to use the american guidance at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 for who? The winchester/JYO/MRB folks have 15-20" and we have 3"..... Us, obviously. We have almost no chance of a 1" + snowfall until next winter. But I'm not going to be outright dismissive of it just because of climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I think the Euro was like .15 to .2? It was the driest of them all.....and of course the most accurate. Euro screwed up the northern extent. I was supposed to get .1+/- during the best 6 hour panel and .2+/- overall with ok temps. I got a light powdering on the hood of my truck. It did better further south. Pretty much a bust from DCA north precip wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 yeah...it is the best model by far....i think it has become more apparent this winter that there isn't really much reason to use the american guidance at all maybe for winter. the nam still nails squalls about 24 hours out as it did with the crappy one last week. but yeah.. euro hugging all the way on snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 yeah...it is the best model by far....i think it has become more apparent this winter that there isn't really much reason to use the american guidance at all How do most of us, including myself, get trapped into doing this again and again when it's them against the Euro? I'm not saying our guidance isn't good....because I believe the GFS has improved tremendously. But if it's not in line with the Euro, 9 times out of 10, you gotta bet Jacques over Jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 actualy the nam did quite well on timing/duration of this 'event' as well. it was just too wet a while back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 were we supposed to get more than a cartopper?...I never paid attention to LWX....I never do....cause I figured out years ago that they aren't very good with snow events while you have been all over their nuts 24/7 The only thing topping cars in dc is dust.. ..and I don't have anywhere close to the hard on you have for LWX.. My only point over the years has been that I doubt professional meteorologists are in the business to be wrong with their forecasts, and as a government operation, I'm sure they are under some sort of mandate to be more safe than sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Us, obviously. We have almost no chance of a 1" + snowfall until next winter. But I'm not going to be outright dismissive of it just because of climatology. I havent gotten an inch this late since 1990....and then it was maybe 2" and melted quickly of course Not following this event was the best thing....I got up early, watched the snow, went out for 10 minutes...made a few snowballs....nice pretty morning.....if we get snow again, my final call is T-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 maybe for winter. the nam still nails squalls about 24 hours out as it did with the crappy one last week. but yeah.. euro hugging all the way on snow. yeah...I'm not as familiar with the NAM outside of winter, but I know you have said it was decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 euro was always the driest model in the storm. GFS had .80 as of Saturday while the Euro had .20 Usually it's the NAM that throws out some ridiculously wet solution 36-48 hours out, but this time it was the GFS, which is why I believe many of us saw hope/got fooled again (until the Euro failed to budge at 12z Saturday). Surface temps on the GFS were really cold too...like .5-.8" falling overnight with surface temps of 28-29. Should have known it was too good to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I havent gotten an inch this late since 1990....and then it was maybe 2" and melted quickly of course Not following this event was the best thing....I got up early, watched the snow, went out for 10 minutes...made a few snowballs....nice pretty morning.....if we get snow again, my final call is T-1" I dropped out of this event around Saturday AM and haven't cared since. T-1" is safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The only thing topping cars in dc is dust.. ..and I don't have anywhere close to the hard on you have for LWX.. My only point over the years has been that I doubt professional meteorologists are in the business to be wrong with their forecasts, and as a government operation, I'm sure they are under some sort of mandate to be more safe than sorry. I think this is one of those instances when I def did better than DC....better meaning 0.1-0.2 vs T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 yeah...I'm not as familiar with the NAM outside of winter, but I know you have said it was decent I use the NAM more for timing of onset, temps (part of a blend), etc.. I think people still try to use the models outside their best areas just because they are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 same...bushes, flowers, cars deck table a 0.1 or 0.2..........were we supposed to do better than that?...I assumed that is what we would get Pretty much tho given how things have gone I expected mostly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 it was just too wet a while back. Understatement of the year.. DCA probably recorded 1/10 of the QPF forecasted thru 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I never bought the wetter gfs stuff. It was a blip. Euro was steadfast. It was still a complete bust in my area by all guidance. I was hoping for an inch and I got about 1/100th of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Post storm pictures before the warmer air and rain arrive. Dry snow even blowing around with some wind gusts a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 nice pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 It's never good to be on the northern edge in this area. It never works out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Where was LWX getting 4" over Loudoun coubnty? We're they expecting 20:1 ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I am going to guess somewhere between .5 and 1 inch... i see a report of 3SE Chantilly of 1.4" and 1.0" 1 SSW of Woodbridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I ended up with about .6" of snow, a little less than I expected, but still it was nice driving to school in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Where was LWX getting 4" over Loudoun coubnty? We're they expecting 20:1 ratios? Apparently... but there are still a good amount of 2"+ reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 1.2" in Manassas, Va. This system in general was a big surprise for me. It's been so long since I have seen snow on the ground this late in the year. This has been a very strange winter!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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