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Obs/discussion from the In and Out storm nobody cares about march 17-18


Ji

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Not till the HECS lol

 

That becomes part of the problem even in a regional forum....I think some people (not me or you of course) talk about events collectively as if they will impact the area the same...The better areas got 1-3" this morning...they might do good again while we get zilch....Ji probably has 15-20" this winter...I have <3"...lol

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euro was always the driest model in the storm. GFS had .80 as of Saturday while the Euro had .20

 

 

I think the Euro was like .15 to .2?  It was the driest of them all.....and of course the most accurate.

 

yeah...it is the best model by far....i think it has become more apparent this winter that there isn't really much reason to use the american guidance at all

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I think the Euro was like .15 to .2?  It was the driest of them all.....and of course the most accurate.

 

Euro screwed up the northern extent. I was supposed to get .1+/- during the best 6 hour panel and .2+/- overall with ok temps. I got a light powdering on the hood of my truck. It did better further south. Pretty much a bust  from DCA north precip wise. 

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yeah...it is the best model by far....i think it has become more apparent this winter that there isn't really much reason to use the american guidance at all

 

maybe for winter. the nam still nails squalls about 24 hours out as it did with the crappy one last week.

 

but yeah.. euro hugging all the way on snow.

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yeah...it is the best model by far....i think it has become more apparent this winter that there isn't really much reason to use the american guidance at all

 

How do most of us, including myself, get trapped into doing this again and again when it's them against the Euro?   I'm not saying our guidance isn't good....because I believe the GFS  has improved tremendously.  But if it's not in line with the Euro, 9 times out of 10, you gotta bet Jacques over Jack.  

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were we supposed to get more than a cartopper?...I never paid attention to LWX....I never do....cause I figured out years ago that they aren't very good with snow events while you have been all over their nuts 24/7

The only thing topping cars in dc is dust..

 

..and I don't have anywhere close to the hard on you have for LWX.. My only point over the years has been that I doubt professional meteorologists are in the business to be wrong with their forecasts, and as a government operation, I'm sure they are under some sort of mandate to be more safe than sorry.

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Us, obviously.   We have almost no chance of a 1" + snowfall until next winter.   But I'm not going to be outright dismissive of it just because of climatology.  

 

I havent gotten an inch this late since 1990....and then it was maybe 2" and melted quickly of course

 

Not following this event was the best thing....I got up early, watched the snow, went out for 10 minutes...made a few snowballs....nice pretty morning.....if we get snow again, my final call is T-1"

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euro was always the driest model in the storm. GFS had .80 as of Saturday while the Euro had .20

Usually it's the NAM that throws out some ridiculously wet solution 36-48 hours out, but this time it was the GFS, which is why I believe many of us saw hope/got fooled again (until the Euro failed to budge at 12z Saturday).

Surface temps on the GFS were really cold too...like .5-.8" falling overnight with surface temps of 28-29. Should have known it was too good to be true.

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I havent gotten an inch this late since 1990....and then it was maybe 2" and melted quickly of course

 

Not following this event was the best thing....I got up early, watched the snow, went out for 10 minutes...made a few snowballs....nice pretty morning.....if we get snow again, my final call is T-1"

 

I dropped out of this event around Saturday AM and haven't cared since.   T-1" is safe.

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The only thing topping cars in dc is dust..

 

..and I don't have anywhere close to the hard on you have for LWX.. My only point over the years has been that I doubt professional meteorologists are in the business to be wrong with their forecasts, and as a government operation, I'm sure they are under some sort of mandate to be more safe than sorry.

 

I think this is one of those instances when I def did better than DC....better meaning 0.1-0.2 vs T

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yeah...I'm not as familiar with the NAM outside of winter, but I know you have said it was decent

 

I use the NAM more for timing of onset, temps (part of a blend), etc.. I think people still try to use the models outside their best areas just because they are there.

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