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Obs/discussion from the In and Out storm nobody cares about march 17-18


Ji

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.5 to 2" seems a weird range

 

2-4" seems too high over loudoun etc mostly.. never really understood that one. not sure any model has enough liquid to get 4" of snow. 1-3" might be better... tho even 3 might be pushing it in a lot of spots.  

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Honestly just curious-- do you only report on model runs when they are favorable? Like the 23Z RAP report but nothing on the 0Z NAM that now matches pretty well precip-wise with the numerous Euro runs leading up to this event for the "snow hours".... 

 

I was busy during that time actually... but yes it shows what the 12z EURO showed... around .2 to .25 QPF for DCA. 

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Agree... 1-3 in the adv zone is what i expect

 

no reason to be bullish on this event. it's going to be quite lame for everyone most likely. i wouldn't be surprised if 2" reports are rare outside elevation.

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I was busy during that time actually... but yes it shows what the 12z EURO showed... around .2 to .25 QPF for DCA.

I'm not sure through what hours your total runs, but through this time tomorrow it looks to be double that.

Don't take this as me being confident on this though. I'm not feeling it on this one. It just doesn't look to good right now. Lots of times that means little as well, so, who knows.

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I'm not sure through what hours your total runs, but through this time tomorrow it looks to be double that.

Don't take this as me being confident on this though. I'm not feeling it on this one. It just doesn't look to good right now. Lots of times that means little as well, so, who knows.

 

pretty much only thru 12z matters.. probably for most spots. it's like .1" for DC .. not much better west.

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I won't be surprised if they're rare everywhere.

 

could be. these small events are tricky on the margins. radar is kinda meh but most of the action isn't for a few hours yet based on the models.. temps, well we have a cold high but it's almost late march. most places prob want rates no matter what. pretty sure lwx will bust high west of here.. hopefully that sends the FB trolls to their page.

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Lgt rain/snow mix currently. Expect it to go over to sn when heavier precipitation comes in in a short while. noticeably colder and dryer than earlier this evening. Someone may get 3 inches. who knows. 1.5 will get me over 10 for the year. woohoo.

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in the last snowstorm there was a model who's output we did not like because it gave us much less snow. someone mentioned a model earlier this evening that placed MUCH of the precip well south of N VA. I suggest we take that ultra seriously. Radar trends thus far this evening have been illustrating this stark point. Central virginia has received much of the precip and will continue to do so overnight.

 

did we learn anything at all from March 6th?

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On the one hand - OUCH for mby. Massive push NORTH of the snow.

 

On the other hand - CONGRATULATIONS are in the offing for much of Maryland and likely communities on and near the Mason Dixon Line for steady accumulating snows well into Monday afternoon. Get the plows ready, Balto.

 

This stream of snow has been like a LES streamer all effin night. Its blowin all over the place. First Richmond got snow. Now its Baltimore, most of Maryland probably clear to the Bay and even Pennsylvania. DCA might catch a glancing blow from the extreme southern edge of the snow slug.

 

Once this stuff goes over to plain rainfall later on today, we won't have any trouble getting in on the precip.

 

Look on the bright side tho.......I get to enjoy a cartop coating of RAIN by tonight (Monday night). I'm so excited about that that I want to throw a massive keg party!!!!

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